JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/2/21

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/2/21

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Steve Adams

2:59

I think he'll sign elsewhere.

grw

2:59

Philly has to pursue one of the big SS, right? Stott can't be the backup plan for 3B and SS.

Steve Adams

2:59

I like the Phils to sign one of the "big five" shortstops, yeah. Stott could move to another position, headline a trade package, or push the free agent SS in question to another position at some point if he forces the issue.

Yankees

3:01

Work out a deal to get Didi back and wait for Volpe/Peraza?

Steve Adams

3:01

Gregorius was so bad at shortstop that Dave Dombrowski made clear on Day One of the offseason that he wasn't guaranteed the SS job next season.

The Yankees just moved Gleyber to 2B and made a big deal about needing to get better at SS. Didi isn't a fit.

Justin

3:01

Any chance Semien ends up resigning with the Blue Jay's? 5/25M get it done?

Steve Adams

3:02

There's a chance, of course, but I think he can get to six years.

(Not necessarily at 25MM AAV, but at a high enough price to take him comfortably past 125)

Longorias shadow

3:02

Will TB pay $7 million for Zunino?

Steve Adams

3:03

Even if they don't want to pay it, I think they should pick up the option and then try to trade him.

Chaim Bloom

3:03

Will 5/100 get schwarber? I can't imagine he'll reach JDs 5/110 with opt opt-outs. JD had a much better track record. Maybe more years lower AAV?

Steve Adams

3:05

I think he's a little less than that both in years and AAV. He doesn't have a big track record against LHP, and right or wrong, last year's non-tender adds to some perception/narrative surrounding that fact.

Still think he'll get a strong four-year deal, and we've at least considered the possibility of five when talking about our Top 50/projections.

Morton’s Fibula

3:05

Please explain the implications off the termination of the bargaining contract on free-agent negotiations this Winter.

Steve Adams

3:07

The implications are too broad-reaching to cover in a quick off-the-cuff answer. But generally, I expect teams to be reluctant to commit major contracts without knowing the status of the changes to the competitive balance (luxury) tax structure. As such, I expect the vast majority of major free agents to linger until there's some form of CBA resolution. Could still see some trades and smaller deals struck up early on, but the lack of luxury-tax clarity and lack of NL DH clarity will loom large.

Les Gomez

3:08

Lee and Vientos enough for Buxton?

Steve Adams

3:08

Nope

Tyler is tired

3:09

Do you think the rangers make any big moves this off-season

Steve Adams

3:09

Yeah, I do think they'll splash some money around and like them as a fit for one of the shortstops or perhaps Bryant as the headlining move.

Angels 22

3:09

Seems like everyone wants pitching prices higher than expected this off season. Could Jon Gray reach 70 to 80 mill on 4 year deal?

Steve Adams

3:10

I'm pretty bullish on Gray but think that's rather high. I do think four years is out there, however, just at a slightly lesser AAV

M's

3:11

what starters do you think we will/should target?

Steve Adams

3:12

I don't really think there's anyone who'll be off the table for them, SP-wise. I don't think they'll land Scherzer or Verlander, but I don't see why they wouldn't be able to land a Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez or even Robbie Ray. They have the money and the need.

Marcus Semien

3:13

How much (if any) has changing my agent to Boras affected the offseason free agent predictions for you and your colleagues?

Steve Adams

3:15

It hasn't, really. Semien was already with one of the highest-profile agents/agencies. I think things like "X hired Boras" tend to be overstated among fans, honestly. The implications are huge in that portion of the industry, of course, and maybe Boras has a slightly stronger connection with a specific owner or two, but I already thought Semien was going to get six years in free agency.

Cameron

3:15

Best fit for Byron Buxton

Steve Adams

3:17

He's said he wants to be a Twin and they have the money. The best fit is just an extension in Minnesota. If you're strictly talking trade, the Phillies have a pretty dire need. Mets. Giants. Dodgers, depending on how they handle the rest of the roster. He's the best defensive CF in MLB and has been an excellent hitter, when healthy, in recent years. You can fit him on most teams, honestly, but the "best" fits are ones that can afford to extend him and have shown the risk tolerance needed to do so.

A's

3:18

Prediction - will the A's sign any free agent over $4 million?

Steve Adams

3:18

Probably. They're going to trim a ton of payroll via trades, so they can put some back into a few decent one-year deals to try to develop some summer trade chips or make an unexpected run. Wouldn't be the first time we all thought the A's misfit roster wouldn't contend and then ... lo and behold.

Stroman

3:19

5 years 90 mill from Angels do I take it?

Steve Adams

3:19

I think he'll clear $100MM on a five-year deal.

Justin Verlander

3:20

A Detroit reunion?

Steve Adams

3:21

Think he's going to want to sign with a more clear contender, and the Tigers are going to want more stability out of whoever they sign for that rotation. I'm sure they'll look into it, but I bet the price will take him to a contender -- Houston or the West Coast. (Verlander reportedly preferred LA when he was traded to Houston the first time around)

Just my opinion

3:21

Does JD opt out for this year for the redsox ? And if not does it hurt or help the sox? Also RIP Jery Remy

Steve Adams

3:21

MLBTR staff is split on this. I'm team opt out. We're actually going to have a reader poll on it today, but I expect the results will be pretty even.

ooklah the mok

3:22

I must be an idiot...Why all the Buxton love....? Guy has talent, but has never played in more than 92 games in a season, 'cept for 2017 (140). Convince me the Phillies should make that trade?

Steve Adams

3:23

That's kind of the whole thing. On a game-per-game or inning-per-inning basis, he's one of the most talented players in Major League Baseball. He produced at a legitimate MVP level when healthy this year.

He's the ultimate tantalizer ... any team can dream on the idea of keeping him healthy for 140 games.

Lion-O

3:24

In reality, couldn't the Cubs be spending like the Dodgers and Yankees?

Steve Adams

3:24

Sure -- and they have in the past... but they've given no indication they're willing to do so anytime soon.

Jon

3:25

When does the top 50 FA predictions come out?

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