Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/23/21
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Steve Adams
2:02
Greetings all -- I would imagine we have something like 182 million things to talk about for quite a few interested parties. And, of course, general offseason dealings and whatnot
Angels
2:03
Like the signing of Loup?
Steve Adams
2:04
It was more than I'd have gone for a guy who averages under an inning per appearance and won't repeat last year's ERA, but I expected the market would pay him something in the 12-14M range over two years so I hardly find it egregious.
Phil
2:04
Will the Royals do anything this winter?
Steve Adams
2:04
I'll be surprised if they don't add multiple notable relievers.
Matt
2:05
Objectively speaking, do you think the Dodgers would be better off letting Kershaw walk and resigning Scherzer. Letting Seager walk and resigning Taylor?
Steve Adams
2:06
Objectively, Scherzer is a better pitcher than Kershaw at this point. I don't think letting Seager leave and paying to keep Taylor makes them better.
Guest
2:06
All is quiet last few days on jays front!!! Are they going to do anything before dec 1 ?
Steve Adams
2:07
They're trying to re-sign Matz as we speak -- but then again, seven other clubs are hoping to sign him, so time will tell. I imagine we'll know where Matz lands tomorrow, but for those asking me where he's going to sign, the simple (and admittedly boring) answer is that no one can know the answer to that because Steven Matz doesn't know the answer to that yet.
Rick Hahn
2:08
Do I overpay for Semien to fill one need, and piecemail the rest together? Or so I spread the money out across 2B, RF, bullpen?
Steve Adams
2:09
I expect multiple, lower-priced signings (and a Kimbrel trade) from the White Sox
Not "low"-priced, mind you -- just lower than Semien. And I should say "acquisitions" rather than signings, since they could obviously operate on the trade market as well.
Kris Bryant
2:09
What about me buddy,  I had fun in SF?
Steve Adams
2:11
Bryant was a nice half-season rental in San Francisco, but nothing Farhan Zaidi has said suggests that re-signing him is a priority. It's been aggressively pitching-focused, and Zaidi had this to say about Bryant at season's end:

"For us, the move at the deadline was really about pushing chips in with this team, which we thought was a really special team and had a chance to do some special things and did," Zaidi said at his end-of-season press conference. "But we recognize that he's a superstar talent and it's going to be a really competitive market for his services. I'm sure we'll have conversations there, but he's going to have a long line of suitors, so we'll just have to see how that develops."
Jojo
2:11
What's your opinion on the Franco contract?
Steve Adams
2:13
I think it's a good deal for all parties. So many people have become obsessed with this notion that any players who sign early contracts are leaving money on the table.

I think there's truth to that, and I was immensely critical of the Ozzie Albies contract for that reason, for instance.

But there's a difference between Albies signing for five years and $35MM and this Franco deal. There's a difference between Acuna signing 8/100 and this Franco deal.

Franco easily secured over $100MM more than he'd have gotten in arbitration. Probably $135MM or so more.
2:14
Jon Heyman reporting White Sox are close to a 3-year deal with Kendall Graveman, so there's one move for the ChiSox fan who just inquired! Ha.
I'm going to get a quick headline posted on that and will be back in one min
2:17
Sox love them some high-priced relievers
Pistol
2:17
Should the orioles make a offer to rutchman similar to the rays offer to Franco tired of seeing good players leave in their prime
Steve Adams
2:19
The Rays at least watched Franco against MLB pitching for a half season. I don't think the O's would or should offer 182 to Rutschman. The record for a player with 0 days of MLB Service is Luis Robert's $50MM deal with the White Sox.
2:20
Baltimore would need to offer more for Rutschman, but it's at least feasible that they could try.
Potosi
2:21
Do you see the Mariners landing Seiya Suzuki? Their OF has potential but lots of question marks and he could help spell Kyle Lewis in CF. Not to mention their history with Japanese players.
Steve Adams
2:23
The history with Japanese players and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto's public comments saying they like the player are notable, but I don't see the Mariners' need being pressing enough to sign him. I think an outfield-needy team like the Rangers or Cubs, who are trying to thread the rebuild/compete needle makes more sense.
Michelle
2:23
Can the Phillies sign a solid closer without going over the luxury tax?
Steve Adams
2:24
We don't know what the luxury tax will be, so that's impossible to say. But I generally doubt it'll be an issue now that they dipped under in 2021, and even if it is, they could try to make some kind of trade .... flip Segura for Kimbrel or something.
Bucco Fan
2:25
Newman (defense) for Gregorius, a good prospect, and just a little cash?  Who says no?
Steve Adams
2:25
Newman was one of the worst hitters on the planet -- good defensive marks notwithstanding. If all the Phillies want is a high-end glove with no bat, they could probably sign Andrelton Simmons for a few million bucks and not part with the prospect.
Might get more with the bat than they would from Newman, too.
A's fan
2:26
Do the A's bring back Mark Canha next season?
Steve Adams
2:26
I expect Canha to make more than $10MM annually, so no, I don't see the A's paying that.
Card Fan
2:26
Word from local reporters is that STL front office open to raising payroll for 2022 season.  Is Scherzer locked into staying out west or can the Cardinals snag him for a shorter/big AAV deal?
Steve Adams
2:27
I just don't see a scenario where the Cardinals outbid the Dodgers. I think Scherzer will get something like $40MM annually on a three-year deal and can't imagine that coming from St. Louis.
Baseball is fun
2:28
Is seiya suzuki overhyped? Historically there have only been a few positions players that came over that had a big impact on their club (Ichiro, Hideki Matsui and Ohtani come to mind)
Steve Adams
2:31
How much hype is it to project him to get something like $10-11MM/year and be someone's regular right fielder? I don't think the hype on him is overwhelming.

I spoke to scouts/evaluators from multiple teams about Suzuki when we were doing the prep for our Top 50 list, with opinions ranging from "Best player in Japan since Ohtani" to "He can hit for power but not sure the hit tool will be there"

We received more positive feedback than negative/questionable, and I'm comfortable saying I expect him to be a pretty solid regular in right field.

As we noted on our Top 50 -- that might only mean he's the equivalent of, say, Avisail Garcia. But buying him now means you get his age-27, 28, 29, 30, 31 seasons if you use our projected contract.... Garcia himself is signing starting at 31. The age is nice.
Lloyd
2:32
GET THE CBA DONE!!!!
Steve Adams
2:32
I'll be sure to tell Rob and Tony to do that when the three of us get together for bar trivia tonight.
O's guy
2:32
To me, trading Means seems wise. He's at peak value, he's got some injury concerns, and he's one of the last options (trade-wise) that Elias has to juice an already good farm system. You buying that, or is this "lols O's are cheap"?
Steve Adams
2:34
I don't think he's at peak value considering he had a pretty lousy second half on the heels of a shoulder strain. I think Means' value would be higher if he came out firing and pitching well for two months; they'd still be selling two-plus years of him.

That said, there's also risk there. If the shoulder trouble crops back up or he develops another injury, then the value craters.

I would imagine the willingness (and reported actual efforts) to trade him now are rooted in ownership payroll preferences and front office risk tolerance.
My Name
2:34
Did the White Sox overpay for Graveman? $24MM is an awful lot of money for half a season of solid relief pitching.
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