JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/26/24

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/26/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Steve Adams

1:58

I think teams generally view him as a fine but overpaid player who's unlikely to be worth $32.5MM in 2025. And, if he IS worth that, then you're getting him for one year and he's opting back into free agency. Really, with only $20MM to go in 2026, the only way he's not opting out next offseason is if he's injured or terrible in 2025.

The contract isn't appealing on the trade market, hence the Cubs struggling to find interest.

1:59

What if anything, would you do to "speed up" off-season movement?

Steve Adams

1:59

I say it regularly, but I don't think it needs speeding up. I like that it's a slow crawl. It keeps baseball at the forefront of my mind and makes it a year-round entity.

Sasaki??

1:59

Where are you on Sasaki? I saw some analysts say they predict he goes to the Mets, I'm assuming thats because they think Soto lands there and the Mets go all in to build around him?

Steve Adams

2:01

More than any free agent since Ohtani (first time around), Sasaki's landing spot is going to come down to the player's personal preferences and the manner in which teams sell him on development, a long-term competitive vision, etc. We just don't have a good way of knowing how that'll play out.

Outside of the Dodgers and Padres having more of their 2025 international pool unspoken for than most clubs, I don't think there's a ton to go off of. I'd call those two the "favorites" for that reason, but it can obviously change in a hurry as clubs trade for additional pool space.

Gio

2:02

I think the most likely Cardinal traded this winter is Ryan Helsey given his FA status after 2025 and significant arbitration rise too.

Steve Adams

2:03

Derrick Goold with the Post-Dispatch and (I believe) Katie Woo with The Athletic have both written that the Cardinals are likely to keep him unless they get a huge offer. That's all relative, of course, but I also think it's kind of silly. If the goal is to focus on development and not to compete in '25, I'd be shopping the hell out of Helsley and Erick Fedde alike.

Josh Elliott

2:04

Soto is so much better than any other free agent out there why do others have to wait for him to sign? Im sure Santander wont be getting close to 600 million and im sure there are teams in need of an outfielder that arent in a position to spend 600 million. Seems those deals can happen at the same time, no??

Steve Adams

2:05

Because Santander and his agents want all of the teams that miss on Soto to in turn pivot to him as a Plan B. The more bidders, the more leverage and the more earning power.

Vino Vinnie

2:05

Billy Wagner getting into the HOF this year?

Steve Adams

2:05

Hope os

guest

2:05

Regarding Sasaki, could a team make a deal to sign him and then immediately sign him to an extension? Are there rules against these kind of discussions for international free agent negotiations?

Steve Adams

2:06

No they would not be able to immediately extend him. There's no clear date at which that would be allowed, but the commissioner's office would ax anything viewed as a circumvention of international free agent guidelines.

Cards

2:06

MLB network is floating a proposed trade Cardinals & Phillies involving Arenado, Helsley & cash for Justin Crawford (3) & Mick Abel (6) Any Chance of this being more real than rumor?

Steve Adams

2:09

Most of those don't even qualify as rumors. They're just MLBN personalities speculating on what they think makes sense, which is fine. We do that here sometimes as well but try to be more explicit in emphasizing it's speculative and not something that's rumored or actively being discussed. But I think people tend to see it on MLBN and think there's more to it. Almost all of those guys are just talking about things they think make sense. It's a talking point, not a report that the two parties are discussing anything.

Harold Reynolds this morning was saying the Yankees should trade for Cody Bellinger and send Gleyber Torres back to Chicago, lol. Robert Flores had to tell him "Uhhh.. Torres is a free agent," which was pretty funny (though not in the way MLBN would like it to be). Flores then said the Cubs should ask for Jasson Dominguez. Which is outrageously unrealistic.

So... yeah. Take a lot of MLBN trade scenarios with a grain of salt. They're usually not a "rumor" but rather one person's opinion.

Preller

2:10

I am going to make a trade no one sees coming, I always do. Welcome to the Padres... Sandy Alcantara.

Steve Adams

2:10

I'm sure lots of teams would like to get their hands on Sandy. Marlins president Peter Bendix did say he expects Alcantara to be his Opening Day starter though, and team execs don't often go on record with a statement like that and then change their approach.

Alex Anthopoulos

2:11

I can't make up my mind if these recent moves to save money are towards to a) Being aggressive in free agency or B) Reset the CBT line?

Steve Adams

2:12

The largest deals Alex Anthopoulos has ever given to a free agent since taking over the Braves' front office:

1) Marcell Ozuna (four years, $65MM)
2) Will Smith (three years, $40MM)
3) Reynaldo Lopez (three years, $30MM)
4) Josh Donaldson (one year, $23MM)

They already have like $218MMish in luxury obligations. They'd be a third-time payor in 2025.

I do not expect them to make a big free agent move.

White Sox Fan

2:13

Vaughn for Alek Thomas, who says no? Seems like a good change of scenery trade that helps both teams

Steve Adams

2:13

I thought the White Sox should've non-tendered Vaughn. I would not give Alek Thomas for him and don't think that's an even trade in a 1-for-1 swap

2:14

Vaughn has more than 2200 plate appearances in the majors and has been a consistently league-average bat with poor defense and baserunning.

Jeff

2:14

ASSUMING Jays strike out on Soto and internally realize they have slim chance of resigning Vlad Jr., is 5 years of Michael Busch OR 6 years of (Canadian) Owen Caissie enough to pry him away?

Steve Adams

2:16

Objectively, yes, that should be enough to pry Vlad away -- if the Jays were going to make him available. But the Jays are going for it next year, perhaps in no small part due to the fact that their GM and president are under pressure from ownership to win or else perhaps be on the chopping block. Kicking off a rebuild right now isn't something Shapiro and Atkins are going to pursue.

Also, while I think it's fair to say one of those two but not both -- I think either would have to be the headliner of a multi-player return for Vlad. Doesn't necessarily need to be one of those two and then Matt Shaw or anything, but I don't think it'd be just a 1-for-1 swap either.

Kenny Johnson

2:17

Do you think Soto will accept a deal before Christmas?

Steve Adams

2:17

YYeah

Sam

2:18

What's your predicted landing spot for Max Kepler? Weird to imagine him not in a Twins uniform anymore.

Steve Adams

2:18

Braves or Pirates?

Jeff

2:19

How many questions in the queue about Soto today?

Steve Adams

2:19

A lot? There's over 1000 people in here right now though so it's a lot of questions in general

HaSeong, HyeSeong, HoSeong

2:19

Do you think Sugano would be willing to pitch in Sacramento next year?

Steve Adams

2:20

He's 35, I imagine he'd rather sign with a team that has higher postseason aspirations.

FreddieMeetGibby

2:20

Here's a question about Juan Soto...just kidding. But now that I have your attention Steve, likelihood Adames signs with Dodgers?

Steve Adams

2:23

"Freddie, meet Gibby!" was a fun call.

The Dodgers, for all their big payrolls, haven't really spent wildly in free agency until last year with Ohtani and Yamamoto. Prior to that, the only contracts longer than four years given out by Friedman were Kenley Jansen at 5/80 (which was reportedly influenced heavily by ownership) and Freddie Freeman at 6 and 162 (with plenty of deferrals).

I don't think signing Adames is really their style, especially if they're moving Betts back to the infield. I can see it, of course, because they have the money if they really just love the specific player. But their overall spending patterns under Friedman prevent me from buying into the notion that they're the favorite.

Ang T

2:23

Poll Question: Pete Alonso resigns with Mets or no?

Steve Adams

2:24

Will Pete Alonso re-sign with the Mets

Yes (53.4% | 259 votes)

No (46.6% | 226 votes)

Total Votes: 485

Wilson

2:25

Arenado and Helsley for Mariner's Harry Ford, Tai Peete, and Michael Morales. Who says no?