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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/5/24
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Steve Adams
1:18
He doesn't need to beat 158, since that included his final arb season. He already earned 20.5 for that. So the number is 137.5. We picked him to land below that at 5/125, which still leaves open the possibility that he ultimately comes out ahead, as the extension offer was for six free agent seasons.

I think the Mets will value him highly because of what he's meant to the franchise and because of his marketability, clubhouse presence, etc. All kinds of off-field intangibles. Yankees, Nats, Giants, Angels are among the other viable fits (depending what happens with Soto in NYY's case, most likely).

I still think he stays in Queens.
Dodger Blue
1:19
I don't see Soto as a fit for the Dodgers, given that, where do you see the Dodgers priorities?  Shortstop (Adames) or pitching?
Steve Adams
1:19
Pitching over shortstop for me, but I still considered putting Adames there and won't be at all surprised if they add a shortstop.
GM $$$
1:19
Player to lose out in FA relative to expectation/rep? Alonso?
Steve Adams
1:19
Alonso. Severino. Santander.
Jake ask…
1:20
What if; In a stunning development on November 15th SP Corbin Burnes accepts the Qualifying Offer of $21.2m from the Orioles, then on the 17th the Orioles announce that they’ve reached a 3yr $125m extension with Burnes. Realistic?
Steve Adams
1:20
I see a 0% chance Burnes accepts the QO and don't think he would consider 3/125. Nor do I think the Orioles, having Burnes locked in for a year and 21.05, would effectively offer him a two-year, $104MM extension.
JeffyM
1:21
does Carson Kelly get a multi year deal? 2 years 8 million with a 3rd year option to make it 15 (2 million buy out)
Steve Adams
1:22
I think he does get two and you're underselling him. I'm like 2/16 on him, but I was the high guy on our staff. (I admittedly tend to assume strong-gloved catchers will get paid)
Giants Fan
1:22
Did my question not go through? I submitted it as soon as the opener came out lol.
Steve Adams
1:22
I try to take a mix of early questions and late ones, but I get literally thousands in these chats, including a couple hundred from the Opener alone usually.
BringingBelliBack
1:22
Were you surprised at Bellinger opting in this year with the weak CF market?
Steve Adams
1:23
As I've said in the past, I would've been shocked if he opted out. He's guaranteed $30MM of the $50MM left on his deal and coming off a so-so season. I don't think he's getting $30MM annually, and I think there are questions as to whether he's a viable everyday CF right now. I think he made the easy and correct call
Yankee's fan
1:23
So what happened with Cole? Did he just backdown?
Steve Adams
1:24
Still scratching my head. It literally seems like he took the out to try to force the team to add the extra year, and the Yankees called his bluff then said "But we can just keep the 4/144." Super weird situation and not one I can ever recall seeing.
Ray ray
1:25
TB goes back to St Louis for a catcher?
Steve Adams
1:25
Can see them adding Herrera yeah. Hell, I wrote in the Rays' outlook that their payroll is so low that I can see them as a viable fit for Contreras if St. Louis wants to unload that deal and turn the reins over to Herrera themselves. The Rays quietly have a ton of open payroll space.
Alex Anthopoulos
1:25
Are you as surprised as I when the Braves announced that they won´t be exercising the team option of Travis D'Arnaud? What's your reasoning about it?
Steve Adams
1:27
Yeah that caught me off guard. He implied strongly last month they'd keep him. I think they're open to doing like 1/4 or something later in the offseason, but 1/8 on Day 1 is just a lot to tie up in a backup. They have pretty significant luxury tax concerns that a lot of Braves fans seem reluctant to acknowledge, and they could use help at SS, in the rotation and in the bullpen. Allocating $8MM to a backup catcher probably just wasn't super appealing, especially once they found out how bad Jimenez's knee was.
Justin
1:27
Let's just assume the pirates have about 25 million in payroll room.   Who are some low-medium cost bats you could see them bringing in?   Conforto + Goldschmidt is my personal answer.
Steve Adams
1:29
Either seem reasonable in a vacuum. It'd be a lot to spend relative to Pittsburgh standards. I have them about $29MM from their '24 payroll and $42.5MM from their all-time high, assuming trades/non-tenders of Ben Heller, Connor Joe and Bryan De La Cruz. Could probably fit both in there. I put them on Tyler O'Neill because I do think a corner outfield spot is more important than 1B for them (and there are non-list 1Bs that could fit the bill for them, too, plus trade options).
Finn
1:29
I thought free agency started
Steve Adams
1:30
If this is your first offseason following MLB free agency and you're expecting NBA/NFL levels of speed/activity, I have bad news for you, haha
Goldschmidt
1:30
Would a team like the Nationals or Twins take a flier on me after the down year I had in 2024?
Steve Adams
1:30
A team will take a flier on Goldy, for sure. Nats work. I don't think the Twins are going to give an eight-figure guarantee (which I expect Goldy to command) on a rebound candidate, given their payroll concerns.
Profar
1:31
MLBTR estimates 3/$45M but based upon his performance over the past 4 years, that seems over-valued by at least $10M to me. Over past 4 years his WAR (rWAR) is 1.3/yr and his OPS+ about 105. What are you guys seeing that I'm missing?
Steve Adams
1:33
You're treating his 2024 as if it were the same as 2021-23. He made legitimate swing changes and saw all of his batted-ball metrics explode. He's always had elite plate discipline and contact skills. Now the contact is much, much louder.

I'm not the Profar guy on staff -- that would be Anthony -- but you can't luck your way into an increase of 14 percentage points on your hard-hit rate and 5 mph on your average exit velocity. There were some real changes there.

Some teams will be skeptical, but some could also see 3/45 as a bargain.

It's also possible he takes a good bit less to stay in San Diego because he doesn't want to leave. I'd actually be quite surprised if he left, and I do think he could take a relatively soft deal in SD, but we're not going to make a soft prediction because of perceived preference for one destination.
Buehler's Day Off
1:33
Could you see the Red Sox giving Buehler a similar deal as Giolito got last year?
Steve Adams
1:34
Buehler is a straight one-year guy for me, and I expect the Red Sox to actually be involved in high-end free agents this time around, in a way they were not last offseason.
Nolan Arenado
1:34
Would he waive his NTC if the Dodgers can work out something with the Cards?
Steve Adams
1:35
Just logically speaking, Arenado doesn't seem like someone who's going to be excited about signing on for a multi-year rebuild. It's part of the reason he was traded out of Colorado (lack of competitive rosters, that is) and something he voiced when he decided to forgo his opt-out a few years back. He wants to play for a contender every season.
Bellinger trade?
1:36
Do you think there is any surplus value in Cody Bellinger's deal right now? Who would the suitors be? Yankees? Giants? Would the Cubs improve overall by signing Santander and shipping out Belli?
Steve Adams
1:37
I do think Bellinger could've topped 2/50 on the open market, but not to the extent that it made sense to turn down $30MM for the upcoming season. That does create some possibility of a trade, though. I don't think swapping out Bellinger for Santander is a huge upgrade, though.

Yankees, Giants, Astros, Blue Jays all seem like viable fits to me if they shop him around though.
Jonny Venters
1:37
What do you see as the ceiling for either Ogasawara or Sugano, in terms of performance? Could either be a 2/3 on a decent staff?
Steve Adams
1:40
Sugano certainly has that track record in NPB, but he's 35 so it's hard to say. He's at an age where pitchers tend to start falling off pretty rapidly. Ogasawara is a total wild card. Signing him his more a bet that with some work you can add a mile or two to the velo, manipulate the shape of his breaking ball, etc. The command is obviously plus, but he was about 22% in strikeout rate from 2022-23 and just 14% in 2024. He doesn't miss tons and tons of bats (nor does Sugano, to be clear) and doesn't have the huge power stuff teams typically love.

I'd give Sugano the better chance at being a No. 3. Ogasawara feels like a No. 4/5 starter that someone will hope can pitch more like a No. 3 if their pitch lab can successfully unlock some more swing and miss to go with the inherent command he possesses.
Jimmy
1:40
Does the David Fry news make it any less likely that Josh Naylor gets moved?  Even if they want to hand 1B to Manzardo,  make Naylor the DH.
Steve Adams
1:40
It could, but for me moving Naylor has always been about getting some value out of a desirable asset who has one year of club control left and who can be replaced more affordably. All of that is still possible.
Sonny Gray
1:40
Would I agree to go to Atlanta?
Steve Adams
1:42
I assume so, but the Braves are third-time luxury payors and Gray will come with a $32.5MM luxury hit, before tax. Atlanta would be effectively committing to paying $49MM+ for Gray this season.

(This is a large reason why I did not put Atlanta on any high-end free agents)
Guest
1:42
it is not the Reds style, but Santander would fit so well..  They need to shake something up in a winnable division.  Thoughts?
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