Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/6/18
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Steve Adams
4:04
Greetings all. Sorry for the hour delay. In full disclosure, since Tim and I proved our technological mastery by figuring out how to co-host a chat yesterday, I dumbly had in my brain that since I'd already chatted, it was Wednesday. Routine is a weird thing.
4:05
I just now had a brief panic where I again thought it was Wednesday and I was going to look even dumber, ha.
Let's get under way
Matt E
4:05
What are your thoughts on the Reds coaching hires so far? Has to make them a little more attractive to players, right?
Steve Adams
4:06
I don't think it's going to matter to a top free agent if he's pitching for Derek Johnson or Mack Johnson or Bryan Price so much as if he's signing with a team that won 93 or lost 93 games the year prior. Unfortunately for the Reds, they're the latter.
Joe w
4:07
When can we expect to see some bigger deals done
Steve Adams
4:07
Never seem to be that many early in the offseason, and the QO'ed free agents are all still in their 10-day window to accept/reject those initial offers. mid-to-late November we'll see some start to roll in, and there'll be several hammered out at the Winter Meetings, which begin on Dec. 9.
Wayne
4:08
There seems to be a big turn over in hitting coaches why is that??
Steve Adams
4:08
I
INSIGHTFUL! Ha. sorry
4:09
I'm honestly not sure how this year's turnover rate stacks up to previous seasons, but we're covering it more now than we did in prior years because our readers expressed a desire to see that happen.
So, if you're basing coaching turnover on the level of play it's getting at MLBTR -- that'd be one explanation for the perceived increase.

There are also more new managerial hires this offseason than last, and those always come with a few coaching changes.
Tom
4:10
Does Marwin Gonzalez get a Ben Zobrist contract?
Steve Adams
4:10
I think he comes in short of that. Zobrist was consistently a much better hitter than Marwin, who's really only had one full season of very good offensive output. We put him at 4/36 in the Top 50, I think. I could see it stretching a bit beyond that but don't see 4/56, on.
4:11
no.*

Not a good day for my typing
Mets
4:11
Any chance the Mets sign two of the following: Kimbrel, Britton, Miller, Ottavino & Robertson?
Steve Adams
4:11
I can see them signing one of the bunch but not two
TimmypDC
4:12
If the M’s do have a fire sale does Dee Gordon make sense as a Nat?
Steve Adams
4:12
Some sense, sure, but OBP'ing under .300 didn't exactly do much for his value
Would rather just see them sign Dozier for like 1/12 or something
Kaiden
4:12
Any chance the white Sox sign Harper or Machado?
Steve Adams
4:13
I guess like 1-2% constitutes a chance, and they have the payroll space, so you can't firmly say "NO." But I'd be shocked to see either go there.
Andy Static
4:13
Any KBO/NPB talents who could do well here?
Steve Adams
4:14
Yusei Kikuchi will get a nice contract this offseason. There was some speculation that Yuki Nishi (28-year-old Orix Buffaloes RHP) would ask to be posted but I've not seen any indication that'll actually happen.
Nolan Arenado
4:15
With trade rumors swirling, what destinations should I consider real possibilities?
Steve Adams
4:17
IF they actually make him available, which is far from a guarantee, I imagine you'll hear the Cardinals listed as the likeliest landing spot. Twins, Braves, Brewers, Phillies all have pretty clean fits. But Arenado's the type of player a team with no obvious 3B need would pursue. I'd imagine the Cubs would bump Bryant to LF for a year or the Astros would do the same with Bregman to squeeze Arenado into the mix.
Jr
4:17
How close is zunino to be a rays?
Steve Adams
4:18
Not close? The fact that two teams are talking, at the GM Meetings especially, doesn't mean much of anything. The Rays are probably also talking to the reps for free-agent catchers to get a sense of the price and to other teams with catchers available (Marlins/Realmuto, for instance)
Dipoto
4:18
Are there any specific mlb ready prospects I can get for Paxton that I can build around?
Steve Adams
4:22
Teams like the Braves and Twins have an abundance of potential 3/4/5 starters that aren't far from the Majors who they could include in a package for a couple years of Paxton. Yankees have lots of upper-minors depth. Dodgers could look at him as someone worth shipping out an MLB-ready prospect like Verdugo since they're getting multiple years.

Curious to see how high the bidding will get; Paxton is an interesting case study in the way in which modern teams perceive pitchers. I think even a few years ago you'd hear a lot more about the fact that he's never reached 200 innings. Now, getting even 150+ innings out of a starter is not only acceptable it might even be preferable to some clubs -- especially those who aggressively limit the number of times a pitcher is allowed to face a lineup.
James
4:23
White sox do not have a 1%-2% chance that's a bad outlook. Even Jon Morosi said they have a 30% chance.
Steve Adams
4:25
And that "percentage" is a made up number based on nothing. Saying that three out of 10 times Bryce or Manny would land with the ChiSox is nonsense because even if he doesn't land there, it can't be disproved.

Generally speaking, things like "odds" of a player signing somewhere are just fabrications.
I said "1 to 2 percent" as a means of saying, of course it's possible because they have the money. But I don't consider them an especially likely landing spot for either, personally.
torg
4:26
are the Mariners really going to go full-rebuild?
Steve Adams
4:27
I don't think the fact that they're considering it means they're committed to it, but there's some pretty strongly worded reporting out there on the matter. I'd expect they'll move some pieces this winter, but that doesn't necessarily mean core guys like Haniger, Segura and Diaz. Paxton does make sense with only two seasons of club control remaining ... I'd say if they do move Paxton, they should go ahead and move Diaz as well. I don't love the idea of any team building around an asset as volatile as relievers.
Chris C
4:28
Are the Rockies finally going to make Dahl a full time starter?
Steve Adams
4:28
Yeah I think he'll be getting everyday at bats next season.
Tom Lasorda
4:28
What do the Dodgers need to get over that WS hump?
Steve Adams
4:30
I know most want to hear that there's some obvious fix, and it's easy to point to Kike Hernandez or pulling Walker Buehler, but the Dodgers took a big picture approach and tried to put themselves in the best possible position based on things like Hernandez's overall production against lefties without worrying about his recent performance. I think that's the right call rather than buying into momentum.

In 2018, the Red Sox were a better team, and while the Dodgers certainly could've overcome that, I think if you played that series out 100 times, the Red Sox would win it more often than not.
Not Bobby Evans
4:31
Is someone really considering giving Bryce Harber $400M+? How could anyone think there is any chance anyone lives up to that type of contract?
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