Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/7/19
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Steve Adams
2:21
Happy offseason! Tim chatted on my usual day this week, so let's have an impromptu Thursday chat
I've got to send a quick email and we'll get started, but feel free to start asking questions and, of course, ruthlessly mocking our Top 50 list and predictions.
2:22
That's an annual tradition, after all
FCT
2:25
Why the low estimate for Shogo Akiyama?
Steve Adams
2:27
He's 32 and we haven't really seen that type of player get paid extremely highly. He could certainly land one year and a larger base or even a couple of years at more dollars, but teams are generally more age averse than they have been in the past and he's a pretty big wild card. I mean, look at the contracts for guys like Merrill Kelly, ByungHo Park, Jung Ho Kang, etc. And they were all considerably younger than Akiyama.

It's possible we came in way low there, but the low prediction sort of reflects the uncertainty surrounding his ability to carry over his success. Some scouting reports I've seen question his swing mechanics, too, which could create problems against higher-end velo
DG
2:28
you should add a FA contest with every single free agent instead of just 50
Steve Adams
2:28
The top 50 is enough of a crap shoot as it is!
Aaron Boone
2:28
Who should we focus for this season? Cole or Stratsburg
Steve Adams
2:30
The Yankees are already over the luxury tax before they even bring back Brett Gardner. I'll never rule them out fully on a top-end free agent since they have the funds, but their tax outlook gives me a hard time calling them the favorite for either.

Cole is better and younger, though, so if you're going to shatter the tax ceiling -- and I think the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and other big-market clubs should be willing to do so -- go big and get him.
Cm
2:30
Seems like the cards aren't doing much this off season . what's your take thanks for the chat
Steve Adams
2:31
I think they could add a starter, if they prefer Martinez in the 'pen, and maybe a lower-end corner outfielder (Corey Dickerson?). They're kind of stuck with Matt Carpenter at third base, which limits them to an extent.
They'll bring Wainwright back as well, I assume.
Theo’s Sleeve
2:31
Does Hamel come back to Wrigleyville?
Steve Adams
2:32
He's open to a one-year deal but the Cubs didn't make him a one-year qualifying offer at a rate that seems pretty reasonable for him (albeit perhaps a bit of an overpay). I don't think he's coming back.
Bret
2:32
Didi Gregorius is a tricky free agent to place. How about the Blue Jays as a suitor? There's been some chatter that Bo Bichette isn't a perfect fit at SS, so he could move to 2B while Cavan Biggio shifts to 1B or the corner OF, where the Blue Jays also have needs.
Steve Adams
2:33
The Jays' greater focus should probably be on pitching, and they'd need to overpay to convince Didi (or any free agent) to go to a club that pretty clearly isn't going to contend for at least one more year -- if not two.
DG
2:33
sounds like Hamels would like to return to Philly, but does/should Philly want him?
Steve Adams
2:34
Philadelphia's rotation need is glaring. Hamels is still pretty good. Fans love Hamels. Etc. I think there'll certainly be mutual interest there.
Ryan
2:34
Can the Mets get Betts or Lindor?
Steve Adams
2:35
Hard to see them putting together the best offer after they gutted the top of their system in that Robbie Cano mistake. I imagine both Boston and Cleveland will want MLB-ready parts (or close to it) for both, and a lot of the Mets' most appealing chips are years from the big leagues.
Phils phanatic
2:36
Can u explain why only 3 years for ozuna? Isnt he the best all around OFer on the market?
Steve Adams
2:38
Jeff and I both agreed that we could see 4 as well, but the 3-year pick is what went on the predictions. It's a collaborative effort, after all.

Basically though, he's a corner OF with a QO attached, recent shoulder troubles and outside of 2017 has only been a slightly above-average hitter. His OPS/wRC+ in three of the past four seasons is in the 106 to 110 range.

He's a Statcast darling with great exit velocities, hard-hit rates and a huge gap in his actual wOBA and his xwOBA, so maybe a team will pay him based on that profile. But there's also a lot about Ozuna that just isn't that exciting.
Right field
2:38
Could cards sign Donaldson and trade carp for myers and some cash
Steve Adams
2:40
The Padres have absolutely nowhere to put Carpenter unless they want to play him at 2B, where he's bad. And they already have Kinsler kind of stepping on Urias' playing time as it is.
I don't see the fit.
Live Event?
2:40
Have you guys ever done/considered a live event like the Fangraphs crew occasionally does?
Steve Adams
2:41
It's something we've talked about in the past, yeah. I imagine it'd be in Chicago somewhere, since that's where our owner, Tim Dierkes, lives. But right now it's more of an idea than anything we're seriously working on putting together.
Pirate Fan
2:41
Would a Chris Archer + AA prospects for Nomar Mazara be enough. Looks like both could use a change of scenery..
Steve Adams
2:43
I would much, much rather have Chris Archer. I think the Rangers would be the ones kicking prospects there. Mazara is a bat-first corner guy whose bat has been average, at best, in parts of four MLB seasons now.

Archer struck out a third of the hitters he faced after ditching the two-seamer the Pirates tried to force on him, and if the league ditches the ridiculous superball they used this year, I like him as a bounceback guy
QS
2:43
What are the chances the Nats go back after Hudson in the offseason?
Steve Adams
2:43
I'll be surprised if they don't make an effort to re-sign him.
Dan
2:43
Can you see the White Sox signing Didi and moving Anderson to right field ? Should improve the defense
Steve Adams
2:44
Nah -- I think they'll just look at adding a corner outfielder. Probably a catcher and a starting pitcher, as well.
Matt
2:44
You think Ozuna will accept the QO?
Steve Adams
2:45
If I were ranking the QO'ed free agents in terms of likelihood of accepting, I'd go:

1. Abreu
2. Smith
--Pretty sizable gap--
3. Ozuna

We'd given some thought to predicting him to accept, but there've already been multiple reports of him wanting a multi-year deal and such.
Jeff Win Now
2:46
Astros outfielders are all entering the last year of team control.  Which one gets traded?
Steve Adams
2:46
Have to imagine they're looking for a Reddick trade partner. He's kind of superfluous now that Tucker is ready for a full-time look, and their payroll is pretty clogged up
Mike Hazen
2:47
Do you think I could pry Bogaerts from the Sox if I eat Eovaldi's contract and ship over Ahmed, Varsho, and Perdomo?
Steve Adams
2:47
(D-backs GM Mike Hazen)

No, I don't think the Red Sox would punt on Bogaerts' ridiculously club-friendly deal just to shed Price.
I realize you're sending some value back there, but the general concept is flawed to me because Xander's contract is SO good.
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