Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/9/21
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Steve Adams
3:20
Greetings all -- sorry for the late start today. Will still try to go about an hour.
Jose - Go Sox
3:21
What are the chances Hahn comes out with a deal at the GM meetings?
Steve Adams
3:22
The GM Meetings typically aren't a hotbed of activity, transaction-wise. Dodgers and Cardinals made a couple small signings obviously, but broadly speaking I'd say any fan should assume the GM Meetings are more about laying groundwork than about striking up an actual deal.

Maybe we see a few more early deals this year since some lower-tier free agents are anxious to get things done pre-lockout -- I believe that's happening at this point -- but I'm not expecting tons of moves.
Guest
3:23
Is Dipoto planning on doing much activity in FA? Or is he more of a trading type?
Steve Adams
3:23
He's far more the trading type, but I still expect the M's to be active in free agency this year and do think they'll sign a more prominent free agent than we've seen them sign under Dipoto to this point.
Walter
3:23
Matt Olson as a 1B option for the Guardians
Steve Adams
3:25
Olson's going to be a first base option for any team that wants an upgrade there. I wouldn't call Cleveland one of the best fits because he's going to earn around $12MM in 2022, get a huge raise off that in 2023 and then be free agent-eligible. Are the Guardians of all teams going to give up a significant prospect haul to pay something like 2/30 for a free agent who'll take up more than 10% of their payroll? I kind of doubt it.
Estev Sadam
3:25
You're a GM, who do you take? Kershaw 2/$40M, Verlander 2/$37M?
Steve Adams
3:25
Verlander is healthier right now, so I'd pretty easily take him at those terms. I think JV can possibly earn more than that, though, and think Kershaw is way lower than that right now.
Lockout
3:26
Do any major players or moves happen pre-new CBA?
Steve Adams
3:27
I could see the Braves re-signing Freeman or maybe the Mets working something out with Baez if they're in the same vicinity, price-wise. Seems to be plenty of mutual interest there.
Mariners
3:27
Will OAK hesitate to trade within division?
Steve Adams
3:27
They've made intra-division deals in the past. The Khris Davis/Elvis Andrus swap was just last year, and they had the Profar trade with the Rangers the offseason prior.
Gene
3:27
Will AA go 6@180 for Freddie? Wouldn't be a typical move looking at his history.
Steve Adams
3:28
It wouldn't be, but Freeman isn't a typical free agent case. I think he (Freeman) is near-perfect position. The Braves should sign him for pretty much whatever it takes.
Joe B.
3:28
How about a Kimbrel-for-Cano bad contract swap?
Steve Adams
3:30
Cano is owed more money and has less value. I like Kimbrel/Kiermaier if we're swapping sizable contracts. You can say 16.5MM is too much for the Rays, and it normally is, but if they're sending back Kiermaier's $12MM deal, then it's a net $4.5MM addition for the Rays to add Kimbrel.

He was awful with the Sox, admittedly, but I trust the Rays more than just about any team to get him back on track.

And the Sox need OF help, plus Hahn has already talked about improving defensively.
Angels
3:31
We have the money 💰 I saw your FA predictions players wanna play with Trout and Ohtani and in Anaheim finally tell me I'm wrong
Steve Adams
3:32
The Angels have plenty of money, as I just explored at length on the site like two hours ago. And I do think they're an attractive spot for some free agents. But I think older free agents like Verlander and Scherzer will want to go to more concrete contenders. Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jon Gray -- anyone in that bucket, sure.
MO
3:32
It would be great to see a solid closer in STL. Who would be a realistic option?
Steve Adams
3:35
I picked them for Mark Melancon on our Top 50 list and love the fit. Melancon's 56.4% ground-ball rate is 15th among 144 qualified relievers, and he's one of the best in MLB at limiting hard contact. The lack of K's is going to keep the cost down, but the lack of K's matters less to a team with five Gold Gloves than it does to any other team.
Sam
3:35
Speaking of Erod, do you think he’s leaving Boston?
Steve Adams
3:37
I was pretty surprised to see the collective Boston beat characterizing a qualifying offer as a tough decision and wondered whether that stemmed from the manner in which the team characterized the decision in talking with Boston reporters. If it was really a borderline decision for them, then I think E-Rod is gone because that's just not close to his full value, to me, and another team ought to be willing to treat him like a bigger priority.

He's an easy four-year deal for me.
Reds fan
3:37
What’s your thoughts on why Reds didn’t trade Miley instead of letting him go?
Steve Adams
3:39
I wrote them in our post on Miley. It seems like ownership didn't want to risk having to pay down any of his salary or, gasp, be stuck with a $10MM pitcher who had a great season.

I don't envy GM Nick Krall's position of having to go out there and defend the move. I'm sure that was a pure ownership decision to put him on waivers, and it sucks for Krall to have to wear that like it was the front office's call.

Krall said that teams weren't interested in trading for him, and maybe that's true, but that would obviously have changed over the course of the winter. Once a few clubs missed out on their top targets, renting Miley at one year and $10MM would've become increasingly palatable for those teams.
It struck me as a pure ownership call and a pretty big gut punch to Reds fans to have to just give away a totally reasonably priced mid-rotation innings eater.
Cam V.
3:39
Castillo trade to the Astros makes some sense to me. Feel like they’d rather trade for a guy with a couple years on his contract instead of overpaying in FA (ex: Gerrit Cole). What do you think about that?
Steve Adams
3:41
Luis Castillo makes sense in a trade for pretty much any team that needs pitching. I actually don't think the rotation is a dire need in Houston. They have McCullers, Framber, Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Jake Odorizzi..., not saying they won't add to it or that they don't "need" Castillo -- any team could use him -- but is that where they want to allocate trade resources? Figuring out how to replace Correa is a larger priority to me.
As is the bullpen
Scott
3:42
Most nailed on to accept the QO? Raisel Iglesias is the one that stands out to me
Steve Adams
3:42
I think Iglesias is an easy reject and will receive one of the larger contracts a free-agent reliever has ever gotten.
Syndergaard is the likeliest to accept, I think.
Jim
3:43
No qualifying offer to gray. No trade of story. Do the rockies have any idea what they're doing?
Steve Adams
3:43
Not making the QO to Gray is just so weird. What's the point of not trading him in July if you're going to let him potentially walk for nothing? It's just a series of compounding, poor decisions.
Queuebd
3:44
same contract as B Crawford’s extension. Who says no? Belt or the Giants?
Steve Adams
3:45
If that contract worked for both parties, I have to feel like it'd have been finished up by now. The Giants just offered 1/18.4 to him, and I don't know that they'd offer that but shy away from a second year at 13.6MM, so it seems to me that the 2/32 term probably isn't to Belt's liking.
Joe Smith
3:45
I just finished the first season of Santa Clarita Diet  on Netflix.  Very entertaining. Have you seen it?
Steve Adams
3:45
Great show
Dustin
3:45
Conforto rejected the qualifying offer. Do you think he bets that contract
Steve Adams
3:47
We predicted him at 1/20, so yeah I think he can top 18.4. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect there's a nice three-year deal out there for him. He finished well and his batted-ball profile was pretty similar to past seasons. I think a lot of teams will look past the results and see him as largely the same hitter but try to use the down 2021 numbers as an opportunity to buy low.

The reason we ultimately said one year was because with a nice rebound in 2022 and no QO next winter, Conforto can go get $125MM+. If he's content to take a three-year deal right now, though, yeah I think he'll have no problem finding a nice offer of that length.
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