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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/9/21
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Dan
3:47
Does the lack of a QO make teams bid higher/faster for DeSclafani?
Steve Adams
3:48
It helps his market, for sure, but I don't know that it'll accelerate his free agency at all.
Andrelton Simmons
3:48
Am I resigning with the Twins?
Steve Adams
3:48
He was just bad in 2021. I think they'll move on.
Bob
3:48
Do you think Dinelson Lamet on the Padres is a non-tender candidate?
Steve Adams
3:49
No, the projected price tag ($4.6MM per our guy Matt Swartz) is just too affordable. Even if the Padres wanted to move on, they'd be able to trade him.
Jables
3:49
No QO to Kershaw is a sign of (a) good faith on the Dodgers’ part; (b) scary medicals; (c) an immanent return deal; or (d) Kershaw’s realistic value at this point?
Steve Adams
3:50
Combination of A and B is most likely to me. I'm not going to speculate on his health beyond that, but the combination of no QO and Dodgers president Andrew Friedman's end-of-season comments about doing "what's best for Kershaw's family" makes me wonder if they just declined the QO out of respect so that he could go sign close to home in Texas, without issue, if that's where he wants to be.
Johnson
3:51
Where's Scherzer going?
Steve Adams
3:51
Too hard for me to see him leaving the Dodgers. They outbid the field to trade for him, they can outbid anyone financially... unless they're just hard-set on two years, I think he'll be back there on a huge 3-year deal with a record AAV
Pete
3:51
Is Sonny Gray on the block as well?
Steve Adams
3:52
Yeah, he will be. The Reds will probably come out and downplay the availability of both Gray and Castillo, but everything they've done so far signals stepping back and cutting payroll. Really everything they've done across the past calendar year, dating back to this time last offseason.
3:53
I don't know that anyone making real money there is firmly off limits. I imagine we'll see teams trying to pry Tyler Mahle and Jesse Winker loose, too.
Twins Fan
3:53
Is the “big” roster move for the Twins a trade or a free agent?
Steve Adams
3:54
I picked them for Stroman in our Top 50 so I certainly think a big free-agent deal is possible. But the Twins themselves don't know right now whether they'll be more active in the open market or on the trade front. I imagine we'll see a combination of both paths this winter, but there's no way to say the biggest-ticket item is likelier to come from one bucket than the other.
John
3:54
Marlins and Jays make a trade? Arms for bats?
Steve Adams
3:56
Jays are a great trade partner for the Marlins, since the Fish want catching help and outfield help. But there are a lot of teams that align nicely in terms of having catchers/outfielders and needing pitching... Twins, Mariners, D-backs, Padres to an extent.

Darragh did a nice job looking at this for us a few weeks ago:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/looking-for-the-next-marlins-ca...
Frazer - Scotland
3:56
Do you think the Rays keep or get rid of Glasnow?
Steve Adams
3:57
Keeping Glasnow means committing to paying him something in the $5.8MM range to not pitch next year and then repeating that salary in 2023 -- after which he's a free agent.

I don't think it's the Rays' style to pay around $11.6MM for a guy who'll pitch one more season for them 18 months down the road. I do think there are teams that would love to trade for Glasnow under those terms.
3:58
Put more concisely: I expect him to be traded.
Ethan H
3:58
Interesting trade candidate. Shane Bieber
Steve Adams
3:59
I get the thought process, but it's hard for me to see Cleveland kicking off the Guardians era by trading either Bieber or Ramirez. Not a great note on which to start a rebrand.

I could still see them trading a starter with some control. Zach Plesac comes to mind.
Aussie Giants Fan
3:59
G’day, it’s Almost 9am Wednesday morning in Sydney. Would the Phillies entertain trading Harper? Would love to see the Giants add an elite bat,
Steve Adams
4:00
Thanks for reading from all the way over there!

I don't see any scenario where the Phillies move Harper, though, and he'd have the right to block it anyhow. Giants have the money to pursue just about any bat in free agency or on the trade market, however, and I expect them to be aggressive in upgrading the lineup and pitching staff (more of an emphasis on the latter, given the number of free agents in the rotation)
Dark
4:00
Thoughts on the Heaney deal?
Chris
4:00
Do you see much of an impact from the Heaney signing on the Dodgers ability to sign Kershaw/Scherzer?
Steve Adams
4:00
I've gotten lots of Heaney questions, so probably should address it.
4:04
It's about where I expected him to sign ... we kicked around anything from $6-10MM and went on the low end with our prediction, but I said after he was cut loose that he'll probably be a more desirable "we can fix him" target than most.

I saw lots of disbelief that he'd get $8.5MM in the comments on the post yesterday, and the simplest way of explaining it is to just say that teams don't care about his ERA. Heaney has a plus strikeout rate and plus walk rate, and he's one of the best starters in terms of K-BB% on this year's market -- a metric that has a lot more year-over-year correlation to performance than his baseline ERA.

He misses bats, throws relatively hard for a left-handed starter -- even if the velo is below-average relative to the league at large -- and checks a lot of boxes if you can get him over the home-run troubles.

I don't know what the Dodgers' plan is, but I'm sure they have an approach they feel will mitigate the long ball problems and maximize the value of that K-BB profile.
General Manager
4:04
Why did the Yankees activate Zack Britton from the 60-day injured list?  He's going to miss most, if not all, of 2022, so they'll just have to put him back on it.
Steve Adams
4:05
There's no injured list in the offseason. He'll be put back on the 60-day IL as soon as camp opens next year.
Joc
4:05
Where can I sign a multi-year deal to be a starting OF?
Steve Adams
4:07
I'm not sure that's out there. Pederson was a generally pedestrian hitter with the Cubs/Braves before a big 5-6 games that flared the ol' "Joctober" narrative up. He tanked for the final couple rounds of the playoffs.

I thought maybe last offseason that the power and name value might get him some decent multi-year offers, but it didn't come to be and now he's a year older and another year further removed from his last big showing.
I think most clubs are going to view him as a platoon corner bat. He might get two years based on that, but I don't think he's going to be plugged in everyday as someone's left fielder on a multi-year deal. Joc is fun, so hey -- I hope he proves me wrong.
Adam
4:08
If.Jays take Mooses contract can they get Castillo cheap?
Steve Adams
4:08
Reds GM Nick Krall already said they don't want to attach prospects to a player to move his contract. I have to imagine they're even less excited about attaching a proven big league starter to move the Moustakas deal. (Or the Suarez deal. Or any deal)
Dodgers only
4:09
Why Andrew Heaney? Why?????
Steve Adams
4:09
I answered this like 4 mins before you submitted this question! Haha. Scroll up
Chaim Bloom
4:09
Should the Red Sox be happy that JD Martinez did not opt out?
Steve Adams
4:10
A year of JDM at $19.375MM is perfectly reasonable. I don't think there's tons of surplus value, so I don't know if clubs will be knocking down the door to trade for him -- lots of "Trade JD and re-sign Schwarber???" questions this week -- but I'd be happy to have that bat on a one-year deal for that price.
Paws
4:10
Do you think the Tigers might prioritize the acquisition of a bona fide ace (or two!) over a prized shortstop? I could see the current Brewers model of pitching and fielding as a decent model to try replicating for the Tigers. Thanks for doing this chat.
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