JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/2/25

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/2/25

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Steve Adams

8:57

Good morning! Chatting a bit early today, as I have some afternoon commitments. Feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as always. We'll get going at 11am CT!

10:58

Hello! I'll get going in a minute. Feel free to start adding questions to the pile!

Question

10:59

How many questions do you guys usually get on these chats?

Steve Adams

11:00

Several hundred. More as we get closer to the Winter Meetings, trade deadline, busier times of year in general. I think last week topped out around 800 participants, and I imagine we'll hit similar or greater levels this time around

Leave it to Beavers

11:00

Is Bubic available? Would Heston Kjerstad be enough for a 1 for 1 or has his stock fallen too far?

Steve Adams

11:02

The Royals are open to moving a starting pitcher for an outfielder. President of baseball ops JJ Picollo has publicly said as much. Bubic only has one year left before free agency, so he's certainly someone they'll listen on.

That doesn't mean they're outright shopping him, however. And while Kjerstad was a high-profile prospect for several years, I think his stock has cratered so much that I wouldn't give much consideration to trading Bubic for him. I'm not convinced Kjerstad even makes it through the offseason on Baltimore's 40-man roster.

DC Fan

11:03

Odds CJ Abrams gets traded? Nunez is pretty good.

Steve Adams

11:05

As in Nasim Nunez? I would disagree with you there. He's a good fielder but that's about it. I don't think he's a big leaguer unless he's just an all-glove utility man.

But that doesn't hold much bearing on Abrams anyhow. The Nats aren't going to be good in 2026. It doesn't matter if they have have an heir-apparent waiting to step in for Abrams.

Abrams is a bat-first middle infielder who might improve defensively with a move to second base or center field. He's miscast as a shortstop, but he's a good enough hitter/runner that it hasn't mattered.

I don't like putting "odds" on these things, since it disingenuously suggests there's some level of precision when it's all dependent on what the market bears. But the Nats will listen on Abrams, and yeah, there's a chance someone offers enough to make them pull the trigger. He has three cheap years left, so it'd need to be a pretty significant return, though.

Sad Buc

11:06

Would the Pirates and Braves make good partners for a Murphy for pitcher trade?

Steve Adams

11:09

Atlanta would be selling low on Murphy coming off the surgery. He's expected to be ready for spring training, but we'll obviously see how he looks and how the rehab goes.

I also don't think there's so much surplus value on his deal that he's going to command a controllable young starter. I suppose maybe you could add some pieces to either side and put together a "baseball trade" with Mitch Keller going to ATL and Sean Murphy going to PIT, but in general I think there are better fits for Murphy, who I'm not at all convinced will be traded. I think it's likelier the Braves just go with Baldwin/Murphy sharing a lot of DH/C time.

For the Pirates, PNC park is where RH power goes to die, so adding a power-over-hit catcher who derives a lot of value from his defense but is now coming off hip surgery ... I'd be wary there, much as I do like Murphy as a player overall.

Jay dream believer

11:10

Does Berrios' opt out possibility after 2026 make trading him impossible or just really complicated?

Steve Adams

11:11

More the latter, but Berrios' contract is underwater at this point. He's a fourth/fifth starter who's owed $66MM over the next three seasons but can opt out next winter if he manages to bounce back to something closer to his 2018-21 peak. So the acquiring team either gets the rebound performance and waves goodbye when he opts out, or he stays the course/declines/gets injured and isn't worth the current deal.

He's not completely untradeable, but there are enough complicating factors that the chances are minuscule. I wouldn't spend much time pondering the possibility.

Pat H

11:12

Could the Braves get more than normal for Murphy in a trade this offseason? Catching options are slim. Perhaps a 2 or 3 starter.

Steve Adams

11:12

No, I don't think he'd fetch that.

Sabo's goggles

11:13

Brady Singer and Gavin Lux for Heliot Ramos?

Steve Adams

11:14

I'd rather have Singer than Ramos at this point, even just the one year. Ramos was a slightly above-average bat who gave most of that value back on defense. Maybe he pops 30 homers as a DH and part-time OF with the move to GABP, but he's not a guy I'm trading an established mid-rotation starter for -- even a short-term one like Singer.

Guest

11:14

Better value? Yoan moncada at 1/$2,000,000? Or trading for Nolan Arenado

Steve Adams

11:17

Moncada got $5MM coming off a season where he tallied 45 PAs. He took 289 plate appearances with the Angels last year and was well above-average at the plate in that time. Yeah, he's going to be hurt and miss time, but there's no reason he should be taking a pay cut. I expect him to top last year's $5MM.

I'd rather have Moncada than Arenado, though I guess if Moncada is going to cost you $8.5MM and the Cardinals pay Arenado down to like $2MM per year, you could sell me on preferring Nolan.

I'm mostly just out on Arenado at this point, though. The bat has declined in consecutive seasons. He was a genuinely bad hitter last year. The defense is still good, but not Platinum Glove-level good anymore.

Conrad

11:17

Would you have given Devin Williams the QO? 1/22 would seem like decent value on him if he got 3/51 but perhaps the Yankees didn’t want to risk both him and Grisham accepting and immediately locking up $44MM on the budget

Steve Adams

11:19

I think the Yankees just felt like the fit didn't work and they were ready to move on. Probably some reluctance, as you said, to the idea of giving two QOs that might be accepted, as well. Then you're spending $44.05MM on day one of the offseason. I have wondered whether he'd have gotten the QO if the Yankees didn't have another borderline-accept candidate. I lean yes. I don't care about Williams' one-year ERA (really, his three-month ERA to begin the season). Clearly teams don't, either.

Williams Contract

11:21

So what’s the “real” AAV for the purposes of calculating the luxury tax? With the deferrals I’ve seen a bunch of conflicting sources and the exact details still seem a bit unclear; how close is $14M/year?

Steve Adams

11:22

Jon Becker specializes in this type of contract nerdhood -- said with genuine affection and appreciation, haha, Jon rules and is great at it -- and he had the true AAV (for CBT purposes) at $14.792MM:
https://x.com/jonbecker_/status/1995683385843614061

Tigs

11:23

If Tigers offered Bregman the same yearly money with one less year, do you think that would be enough to sign him ?

Steve Adams

11:24

No. I think they'll need to offer him pretty close to the same level of guarantee ($172MM-ish) they did last winter. Probably without so many deferrals.

Feels likely that they're going to try to top $160MM so they can say he cleared $200MM for his free-agent years.

Earl

11:24

When discussing a trade or potential free agent signing with another team or agent is it all done at the GM level? Or is it started at an Assistant GM level and work it's way up at things get more serious?

Steve Adams

11:25

Varies from case to case, but there are lots of negotiations -- trade and free agent -- spearheaded by assistant GMs. The sheer volume of offseason negotiations, both trade and free agent-wise, is just too large for it to be handled solely by the person atop the baseball ops hierarchy.

Jack

11:26

What would the Reds need to get in an ideal trade package for Hunter Greene? Maybe a team with some specific prospects/players

Steve Adams

11:31

A comical haul that would upset the fan base acquiring Greene. I don't think there's even like a 2% chance he's traded this winter. Lodolo? Sure. Singer? Sure. Abbott? Ehhh.... I can see it a little bit. Greene? Basically no chance.

I get it. Reds president of baseball ops didn't expressly say "no way I'm trading Hunter Greene," but he's a small-market bb ops leader.... of course he's going to keep the "we always listen" approach.

If you want to throw out wild scenarios like the A's offering Nick Kurtz, or the Tigers offering both Kevin McGonigle AND Max Clark (plus others), sure I suppose we can talk about it, but Greene is so good and on such a reasonable contract, that it's pretty much a pipe dream as far as I'm concerned.

I'll eat those words if I'm wrong -- always happy to. But I just cannot fathom trading Greene when he's owed a $41MM over the next three years with a club option to make it $60MM over four.

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