Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/16/21
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Steve Adams
2:27
Greetings all -- Sorry for the late start. I'll try to go until close to 3:30 to offset
Mets fan
2:27
So the Mets ARE looking for a new third baseman, right?
Steve Adams
2:29
I really don't understand the sudden rush to run J.D. Davis out of town after he hit .288/.370/.483 over the past two seasons. It feels like some Mets fans are just miffed that they "only" got Francisco Lindor as their main piece of the offseason and now think the team should make moves just to make them.

If they can get some kind of actual upgrade over Davis, I'm sure they'd be open to it, but I doubt they're banging down all 29 other teams' doors in frantic search of replacing a pretty decent player.
Tim
2:29
Snowed in here in Michigan.  How is the weather there?
Steve Adams
2:29
I live in Minnesota. Life is a constant state of frozen sub-zero temperatures or sweltering, upper-90s humidity with like 2-3 weeks of spring and autumn mixed in between
Bazebawls
2:30
Cards left side infield defense:best in baseball?
Steve Adams
2:30
Healthy Arenado/DeJong -- probably. Could give it to Donaldson/Simmons, too, if both are healthy (the latter is a larger "if" though)
Cardboard Cutout
2:31
Can you explain the Mets' Pillar signing to me? Can't really play CF anymore and seems to fit a similar role to Almora. Also who now starts the season in AAA Almora or Martinez (assuming everyone is healthy of course)?
Steve Adams
2:31
My reaction to it was about the same as yours. I don't think he's an upgrade for them.
hobiecat
2:31
Do the Reds go for Rosenthal?
Steve Adams
2:32
If they were willing to spend like that on a reliever, I doubt they'd have dumped Raisel Iglesias for nothing and then sat out the rest of the winter (with the exception of $1.5MM for Doolittle)
Cata Cita de Bogotá
2:32
Why are Oakland and Tampa CONSTANTLY predicted to finish 3rd or 4th?
Steve Adams
2:34
Because they've subtracted a bunch of talent, and projections don't care whatsoever about team record the prior year; they're a sum of the projections of the players that are now on the roster.

I think they're probably both better than their PECOTA and FanGraphs projections, but the A's lost Semien, Hendriks, Soria, La Stella and haven't really replaced them with much. Rays lost Morton and Snell.
Cody
2:35
Where do you think Odorizzi ends up? I originally thought the Cardinals but sounds like they're finished with upgrades
Steve Adams
2:36
Yeah, it's tough to see the Cards shelling out a three-year deal for him after Mozeliak's recent comments. Twins would probably give him a soft landing if he decides to settle for one year (Cards could too at that point), but the Mets, Angels and Blue Jays all seem likelier to me at this point.

We're also at the point of the offseason where players will start getting hurt early in camp; with a notable injury on the right contender, a fit we didn't give much consideration to could open up in a hurry.
Orioles
2:38
so the AL East is just trembling with fear at the thought of our rotation right?
Steve Adams
2:40
I can't tell whether to shake my head in disgust at the O's or to tip my cap to them for the most brazen, aggressive instance of tanking in recent memory. That said, I hope King Felix can make the team and actually rebound to some extent. I love Felix. I doubt it'll happen, especially in that park in the AL East, but it'd be fun to see.
Tom
2:41
Any chance Taijuan Walker ends up back in Seattle?
Steve Adams
2:42
I'd imagine they're pretty set after adding Paxton. Walker seemingly wants multiple years at a strong annual rate, which I don't see Seattle handing out. Could add a non-roster veteran to compete in camp, but I don't think anyone of Walker's profile, no.
Padres fan
2:42
When are we going to platoon Hosmer? Dude can't hit lefties at all.
Steve Adams
2:43
The Padres knew he couldn't hit lefties when they signed him. I'm not going to try to understand their logic with regard to that contract/player.
O’s fan
2:43
The Os really have the most brazen attempt at tanking in recent memory?  They’ve only picked #1 once.
Steve Adams
2:44
I just mean with their complete and utter refusal to add anyone of consequence to that pitching staff.
Or anywhere else on the roster, really.
2:45
"Freddy Galvis is our signature offseason addition" does not strike me as a team that cares about anything other than picking first in 2022.
Cubs fan
2:45
With full time at bats, can Joc Pederson be a 35 HR, 100 RBI player?
Steve Adams
2:45
With full-time at-bats, Joc probably boosts his counting stats and hurts the numbers that actually matter.
2:46
All of his rate stats will go down
Matt
2:47
A's opening day shortstop is...?
Steve Adams
2:47
Elvis Andrus
Tony
2:47
Hey Steve, looking at projections for starting pitchers, I'm curious what kind of odds you'd give for everyone basically being wrong. What I mean is, most people are projecting close to normal workloads, say 170-180 instead of 200 and that sounds reasonable but this is such uncharted territories, is there a chance barely anyone get get past 150? And then how does that impact the league. More minor leaguers getting called up, more fringe starters piggy backing with one another, stuff like that?
Steve Adams
2:50
Yeah, projection systems are going to operate based on prior workloads without factoring in the context of the shortened-schedule implications. I think we'll see a lot of guys topping out in the 150-160 range, fewer 180-inning pitchers than ever and wonder if there'll be a single 200-inning pitcher this year.

To the second part of your question -- probably all of it. More fringe minor league guys called up and bandied about waivers. Shorter starts, more frequent usage of tandems/piggybacks, etc.
Cherington
2:50
What more will I do this offseason? I'm fielding a decent AAA team at PNC.
Steve Adams
2:51
Pirates just agreed to a Major League deal with Tyler Anderson, per Ken Rosenthal (going to post that quick, one second)
Jake
2:53
Will Urias actually be in the Dodgers rotation? Or is he going to be used more in a hybrid role? Spot starts, bullpen use etc. Awful lot of depth in the Dodgers rotation.
Steve Adams
2:55
The Dodgers, and many contending teams, will probably eschew a standard five-man rotation. We'll see lots of guys making 20-25 starts -- many capped around 5 innings per outing. The Dodgers already use more than six starts with regularity by manipulating the 10-day IL. It'll be more of the same there.

Urias has still only topped 100 IP in a season once. Even under normal circumstances, something along those lines would probably be the plan for him. I could see a target in the 120-130 inning range.
Buddy
2:56
Jesus Luzardo, Cy Young sleeper. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
2:57
He was one of the top pitching prospects on the planet coming into 2020, has a mid-3.00s ERA in 70ish innings to this point in his career through age-22 ... I guess I wouldn't call him a huge sleeper to break out with a Cy-caliber year.
Bikini Clad Fat Dude
2:57
Is Minasian just an Eppler clone? Same old moves year in, year out regardless who GM is
Steve Adams
2:58
It's almost as though someone above the GM is constantly influencing baseball operations decisions
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