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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/7/23
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Steve Adams
1:18
Eh, I saw Rosenthal write that and I don't fully buy it. Aaron Loup signed for 2/17 last offseason, and while you can't make a direct comparison because of the lockout and the associated transaction freeze, Andrew Chafin wasn't sitting unsigned into April or anything.

I also think that saying the 2/15 deal broke the market implies that the Strahm price was a surprise, which it wasn't. Or shouldn't have been. We had him just outside our Top 50 but put him at 2/14.
Jim-Bob
1:19
How did Chad Pinder only get a minor league deal? And if they deal was that little, why didn't the A's bring him back?
Steve Adams
1:21
He has a .283 OBP over his past 1043 MLB plate appearances. He can play all over the field but doesn't grade well anywhere outside of the outfield corners, where his bat doesn't really play. And the vast majority of his production comes from the short side of a conventional platoon.
If someone had given Pinder a couple million bucks and a roster spot, I wouldn't have been shocked or anything, but it's not a skill set I think a lot of teams really want to dedicate a 40-man spot to in the offseason.
Insert Witty Name Here
1:22
Do you think the Phillies let Nola walk after this year? He’s a pitcher, they have young pitching coming up, and their payroll is already crazy high.
Steve Adams
1:24
What's "crazy high" for a big-market club fresh off a World Series run? Particularly after their owner made himself famous when he talked about being willing to "be a little stupid" with his spending?

The Phillies have $169MM on the 2024 books and $185MM or so in luxury obligations. I think they could pretty easily re-sign Nola. Doing so wouldn't even put them that close to the top of league in terms of payroll/luxury tax. And with Wheeler's contract ending in 2024, there's extra incentive to lock a younger Nola in, if they feel he'll age well.
Steven Adams Jr
1:25
Which currently rebuilding team would you take for the best chance of future success?
Steve Adams
1:26
The D-backs aren't rebuilding but I love their long-term outlook. Orioles, too, at least in terms of the lineup. The pitching gets more suspect after GrayRod, though -- assuming Hall's command issues eventually push him to the 'pen (which is fine; he should be very good there)
Beau
1:26
Is it just me or have there been less trades this offseason compared to years past?
Steve Adams
1:27
It's been a quieter trade market for sure. Not as many aggressively tanking clubs now that the O's, Pirates, etc. are kind of moving out of the pure rebuild phase. And the A's already gutted most of the roster prior to the current offseason.

Still think we'll get a handful of semi-notable trades between now and Opening Day, but the volume and the impact have both been lesser this winter.
Gman
1:27
Chris Archer was semi-effective last year…any news regarding him?
Steve Adams
1:30
"Semi-effective" seems charitable. He had an upper-4.00s ERA and FIP with worse-than-average strikeout and walk rates, and he never got built up to the point the Twins hoped. His inability to stretch beyond 75 pitches or so really taxed the bullpen
Sherry Magee
1:30
Who would the Padres prioritize in signing to a mega-contract, Machado or Soto?
Steve Adams
1:30
Assuming you're talking about a "finish your career in San Diego" type of deal, I'd say Soto, just since they're buying so much more of the prime years.
Dem Birds
1:31
I saw yesterday on ESPN the Cardinals signed a shortstop to a minor league deal.why is it not reported on MLBTR?
Steve Adams
1:31
As I mentioned earlier, we don't really cover all the minor league deals that don't contain invites to MLB camp. Arquimedes Gamboa didn't get a big league invite. I was surprised the Cardinals even took the time to announce it individually. Most teams don't  even bother announcing minor league deals that don't contain NRIs.
Johnny5
1:33
Unpopular opinion: When the Brewers finally do trade 1 of Burnes/Woodruff, they should package him with Yelich. The return will be obviously quite diminished, but prospects might help a team, while a sunk contract will seriously hurt a small market team like the Brewers. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
1:33
I think giving away a pitcher like Burnes or Woodruff in order to get rid of someone else's contract is a pretty poor way to run a team.
1:34
And who's to say that money is going to be wisely reinvested? The Rockies paid Nolan Arenado to go away and then turned around to give $182MM to Kris Bryant.
1:35
Now they have practically nothing to show for Arenado, they're paying part of his salary in St. Louis and also paying Bryant.

I agree that there's a strong likelihood the Brewers will eventually trade one of Burnes or Woodruff. Maybe both. I don't think there's any way they'll attach Yelich to that to try to spare themselves.
B Snit’s Bongos
1:36
As a contender, would you rather have Edwin Diaz or Gunnar Henderson?
Steve Adams
1:37
Diaz rules, but give me Henderson. I can see where for the 2023 season alone, it's possible Diaz provides more value, but I can't ignore the long-term outlook on Henderson (nor the $20MM difference in salary, which could be reallocated elsewhere)
Yankees fan
1:37
Any indication that the Yankees r willing to bring back Zack Britton
Steve Adams
1:38
Seems like the Yankees are pretty loath to step into the "Cohen Tax" bracket of luxury penalization. And if that's the case, it rules out pretty much any MLB signing unless they find a trade to lower their current level.

Kiner-Falefa seems like the most movable option if they want to make that happen -- at least in my view. Not saying that's likely or even that they'll try, to be clear, but that's where my efforts would be focused.
Lefties
1:39
Would you rather have Chafin at 3/$18 or Will Smith at 1/$5?
Steve Adams
1:39
I imagine you're looking at more like 2/18 for Chafin. I'd take the shorter-term deal for Smith, but that's not universally true in all scenarios. If you asked me Chafin at 2/18 or Brad Hand at 1/6 or something, give me Chafin.
1:40
I just think Will Smith is still good and his time with the Astros last year was encouraging enough for me to bet on him in that scenario even though Chafin's the safer bet to be good.
Guest
1:40
Why is Wacha still a FA?
Steve Adams
1:42
He wants more money than teams think he's worth. He had a good ERA and good command last year, but he doesn't miss bats at a high level, has a  lengthy injury history and was pretty bad from 2019-21.

It's understandable if he wanted to cash in on a big walk year after signing one-year deals in consecutive offseasons prior, but every year there's a few free agents who go out too aggressively, and then by the time their ask drops into a more realistic place, most teams have exhausted the bulk of their offseason budgets.

Wacha and Profar look like two examples of that this year.
1:43
If Wacha had been looking for 2/30 when Taillon was asking 4/68 and Walker was asking 4/72, I'm sure he'd have had a much better shot at getting it back at that time than he does now.
Low avg velo rates?
1:44
I've seen pitchers like Zack Greinke intentionally throw pitches that are in the 50mph range. Do those pitches seriously lower the average pitch velocity or are they considered outliers?
Steve Adams
1:45
Greinke might throw an eephus that slow a few times per season. It's not going to alter his velocity numbers much, especially since most pitch tracking methods can appropriately identify it and separate it. When we talk velocity, we're usually talking fastball velocity, so those 50mph rainbows quite literally don't impact the average at all in that sense.
Barney Coolio
1:45
You say the remaining free agent market for hitters is "ugly," but shouldn't it be one week before spring training?
Steve Adams
1:46
Yeah, it should. But lots of questions about what's left out there, and even if this is how it's supposed to look, that doesn't change the fact that it's a rough bunch of names by and large.
BhamBrave
1:46
The Braves have an $8M 2024 option on Travis d’Arnaud. Do they exercise it? If so, do they then trade him or keep hm?
Steve Adams
1:47
It feels steep if the plan is for him to primarily be a backup to Murphy, but the Braves have made pretty clear how much they love him. If he's productive and they're comfortable with him logging ample time at DH in '24, it's possible.

Generally though, it'll depend on his health and performance this season. No reason to prognosticate borderline option calls right now, because there are a hundred factors that'll impact it.
Guest
1:48
What are your thoughts on Lars Nootbaar?  Do you anticipate him hitting atop the Cardinals order as he did at the end of last year?  The Cardinals have had several outfielders hit the ground running only to then come back to earth and struggle for various reasons.
Steve Adams
1:51
I love Nootbaar and am more bullish on him than on some of their other recent young outfielders because I think the huge walk rate and solid defense provide a higher floor than some of the past names, and the hard-hit/batted-ball profile in general is as exciting -- if not more -- than the rest of their recent young OFs.

Nootbaar might be someone whose baseball-card numbers/fantasy baseball stats don't really capture the whole picture of his value particularly well -- the kind that some fans will call overrated because OBP and defense factor so heavily into his value. Love the dude though and think he's gonna be a really nice player in STL.
Gobbler
1:52
Whats going on with Alex Reyes?? It feels like he would be the right pitcher for the dodgers to fix.
Steve Adams
1:55
He's thrown 159 total innings, MLB and minors combined, since Opening Day 2018. I don't think that's something that a team can just fix.

A lot of people want to fixate on Reyes as this super appealing former top prospect, but it's not how teams view him at this point after all the injuries. He didn't throw a pitch in 2022 because of May shoulder surgery.
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