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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/14/23
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Steve Adams
12:39
Tons of hard contact this spring. Poor results. I'm not writing him off after one bad year
Jules
12:39
What's the argument against the Pirates signing Reynolds to an extension? Are the Bucs afraid he'd immediately collapse and they'd be on the hook? I'm not seeing their side of the argument, because most teams are able to get out from under even the worst contracts it seems.
Steve Adams
12:43
Their margin for error is a lot slimmer than most other teams, and I don't think it's accurate to say most clubs get out from under their bad contracts. The Padres are still paying Hosmer. Cubs are still paying Heyward. Angels paid Pujols. Etc. Some teams can, but even that usually involved paying part of the contract after the trade (e.g. Mariners and Cano). It's pretty rare a team gets another club to take on the entirety of a bad contract ... I guess the Twins did this with Donaldson, kind of, but they took some arb salary back from the Yankees (Urshela, Sanchez).

Moreover, the Pirates already control Reynolds through his age-30 season. I imagine there's just some wariness that they've already got his best years and an extension buys the decline. For a front office who knows ownership is never going to give them much payroll, the notion of a $20MM+ salary on a player who's probably a corner outfielder by then surely feels risky.
I'd like to see them do it, and I think their offer was predictably refused and kind of laughably weak, but I understand the reasoning if the front office is wary of coming up into Reynolds' range.
Bruce Sherman
12:44
Your thoughts on NG/Marlins offseason.  Can this team surprise to say 80-85 wins?
Steve Adams
12:46
I think they got a lot worse defensively to add a lot more contact, and the pitching staff is worse than in 2022 with Lopez gone. I didn't really like the Arraez trade for them, and adding one of the lowest K% pitchers from 2022 (Cueto) after downgrading the defense at multiple spots seems odd.

I don't buy the Marlins as an 80-85 win team, sorry to say.
Jimmy ryan
12:46
Can you explain why teams are willing to do opt outs? If the player ends up not doing well they end up having to pay an inflated salary, and if they do well they get no upside?
Steve Adams
12:46
In short: because it's often just the cost of signing that player.
12:47
I see this sentiment a lot though, like player opt-outs are some awful thing for teams. And they generally are, don't get me wrong, but teams have had club options for years and years -- and that's the exact same thing but from the team vantage point
"If you pitch well, we will pick up this club option that is far less than you'd earn on the open market. If you get hurt or you decline, we'll just cut you loose"
Blur
12:48
I saw Manny Pina may not be healthy for opening day, so who would be the backup catcher for Langeliers on Opening Day?
Steve Adams
12:49
They don't have much else, so either Yohel Pozo or a veteran backup type they find on waivers or minor league free agency. There will be tons of veterans on minor league deals who are either released or will opt out of their current contracts upon being told they haven't made their current club's roster.
Kramer
12:49
Do you see any of the Royals young pitching core developing into anything more then serviceable #4 or #5 starters at best?
Steve Adams
12:50
I still like Daniel Lynch. I don't think he's an ace or anything, and a fourth starter might be likelier than him being a No. 2-3, but there's a 90th percentile outcome or something where he's better than a No. 4-5 guy.
Altuve’s Buzzer
12:51
Great chat yesterday guys! Thanks so much!
Steve Adams
12:52
Yeah Ryan Thompson was awesome. Really thoughtful answers to a lot of good questions and stuck around for two hours. You can check out the chat hosted by the Rays righty last night here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/live-chat-with-rays-reliever-ry...

Worth a look if you missed it.
Check out the transcript*
Dodger fan
12:52
What are the odds that we acquire another SS this season?  If so, any guesses?
Steve Adams
12:54
I don't think they acquire anyone before the season. If they hadn't gone and gotten Miguel Rojas already, it'd be another story. But Rojas is the type of player they'd have been looking for post-Lux anyhow ... defensively sound, affordable, etc.

Rojas/Taylor is a fine fix at shortstop for now. If it's July and one's on the IL while the other just isn't productive at all, then sure I can see the Dodgers going and getting a shortstop.
Ranger fan
12:54
Who do you think won the Gregory soto trade? If so how?
Steve Adams
12:56
I don't think there's any point in grading trades so quickly after they happened. I understand the deal from both sides right now, but assigning winners/losers and "trade  grades" so closely after a deal is reactive and rarely proves accurate. There are times where I just hate one half of a trade or don't understand the logic at all, of course, but even in those instances I try say "This doesn't make sense to me" while giving it time to play out. These things have so many tentacles that there's no way to accurately gauge them right now.

Even if Soto has a monster 2023 season and everyone the Tigers get looks terrible this year, the reverse could hold true in 2024. A lot of trades oscillate between looking good for one team then looking good for the other, and oftentimes the truth ends up landing in the middle.
David Peterson
12:58
Do I win the Mets fifth rotation spot?
Steve Adams
12:58
Who will be the Mets' fifth starter?
David Peterson (54.7% | 58 votes)
 
Tylor Megill (45.3% | 48 votes)
 
Total Votes: 106
12:59
Nationals top prospect Cade Cavalli just threw a pitch, winced, shook his arm and left their game with a trainer. Not great.
Alan
1:00
Which teams seem most likely to be looking for a 5th starter/long reliever at the end of spring Training? Orioles could face the need to trade one of their starter candidates.
Steve Adams
1:00
I don't think the O's are in position to nor are they planning on trading any starting pitching depth.
Hypothetical GM
1:01
Steve, you have been awarded an expansion franchise and can start with any two current players (1 hitter, 1 pitcher). Who are you starting your build with?
Steve Adams
1:02
That's fun, and a question where my answer will probably change if I have more than 15 seconds to think about it, ha. But assuming current contractual status and club control applies, I'll take Julio Rodriguez as my hitter and Shane McClanahan as my pitcher.
Cole Irvin
1:03
Biggest failure to rebuild - Tigers, Royals, or Pirates?
Steve Adams
1:04
Pirates' farm is great, they have tons of young guys on the cusp of the majors and their rebuild started later than Detroit's. I don't think they're even in this conversation. Rebuild has gone fairly well since Cherington took things over.

I would lean Tigers here but if you wanted to argue for the Royals, I don't think I'd have a strong counter.
Guest
1:05
Why did it take so long for Jose Iglesias to find a home?   Good average, good base runner and good defender.
Steve Adams
1:06
He hasn't been a particularly good baserunner in recent seasons, and his defensive grades have plummeted. I'm a bit surprised it took so long as well, but the mere fact that it did take that long is proof that teams agree with defensive metrics and no longer consider him the premium shortstop defender he once was.
pohle
1:07
how about the angels’ revamped pitching staff? detmers gaining velocity, tucker davidson changed his mechanics and theres a heap of bullpen pieces looking good this spring. bill hezel might have been their biggest offseason addition
Steve Adams
1:08
I've been big on their rotation dating back to last summer:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/09/angels-pitchers-breakouts-reid-...

Adding Anderson helps. I'm falling into the classic "The Angels will be good this year!" trap again, and my midseason we can all laugh at me.
Moose
1:09
Seattle has been really great at 1-run games for the last few years. Is that luck or is Scott Servais the reason?
Steve Adams
1:09
I'd say some combination of very good bullpens, good managerial decisions and some degree of good ol' fashioned luck.
Guest
1:10
It seems like we see a story every other day about a former top prospect not making it.   Are prospects overrated?
Steve Adams
1:12
I think fans tend to overrate their favorite teams' prospects, yes, and a lot of teams are unwilling to trade prospects in part because they fall in love with ceiling and in part because you don't want to be the GM/president who traded the next Julio Rodriguez, regardless of what the return was.
1:13
Alright I've got to wrap up for the week. Thanks, as always, for chatting -- and sorry for all the questions I can't get to in these. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve if you're so inclined and always happy to take more questions there.

You can also consider signing up for our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which (among other things) grants you access to a weekly subscriber-only chat, and your odds of getting a question answered in those is obviously much higher. Subscribers also get ad-free viewing, weekly email articles from Anthony and myself, exclusive fantasy baseball advice from Brad Johnson, autograph giveaways and more. It starts at $2.99/month, and you can read more or sign up here:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-3-14-23

Have a great week, everyone!
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