Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 3/2/21
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Steve Adams
1:59
Greetings all -- Happy Spring Training and thanks for joining!
Irate Nate
1:59
Odorozzi make sense in cincinnati?
Steve Adams
2:00
Sure, but the Reds have spent $1.5M this winter and spent the rest of the year frantically cutting as much payroll as possible. I'd be surprised to see them suddenly pony up on the three-year deal Odo wants.
Devin
2:01
Who is the third best FA left on the market?
Steve Adams
Rick Hahn
2:01
Will I bring in another bat like Puig or Cespedes?
Steve Adams
2:02
White Sox reportedly were among the teams to watch Cespedes' showcase today. He makes enough sense as a stopgap DH while they wait on Andrew Vaughn.
nats
2:02
Who gets the extension first, Soto or Turner?
Steve Adams
2:03
Turner. He's spoken openly about wanting it. The Nats want it.

Soto is a 22-year-old Boras client who ranks among the game's elite offensive players already. I imagine he's much likelier to test the open market.
marlins
2:03
Puig?
Steve Adams
2:04
Doubt it for the Marlins. They already signed Duvall, they have Marte and Dickerson plus a bunch of younger OF options. Puig would be a bench player there and I both doubt his openness to that role and that they'd want to add any extra payroll for a reserve piece.
State of Affairs
2:04
Which FAs are you the most surprised hasn't been signed yet? I'll get you started with Shane Greene.
Steve Adams
2:06
More surprised by JBJ and Odorizzi. Greene is one of those guys whose ERA looks nice, but the rest of the numbers are more questionable.

I don't want to say I was expecting him to be unsigned on March 2. But right-handed relief seemed likeliest of all positions to be squeezed this winter, and Greene was as likely as any of the guys who outperformed their peripherals to linger on the market.
MLBPA
2:07
Why was the price tag not higher on Ozuna?  Guy killed it last year
Steve Adams
2:07
Because he was only a slightly above-average bat in the two prior seasons and most teams feel he's more DH than left fielder.
Story of a Man Named Trevor
2:07
There's no chance he doesn't get dealt at the trade deadline, right? Who will land him?
Steve Adams
2:07
It's the Rockies. I would say there is definitely a chance he doesn't get dealt at the deadline.
2:09
As for who would get him in a theoretical trade (which should've happened before the season -- but I digress), there's no way of forecasting that right now. Injuries play a huge factor in driving buyers' needs every summer. If Francisco Lindor blows out his knee in April or something, the Mets would vault to the top of the list, but we can't predict them right now.
Neal hungintons roommate
2:09
Who could beat Try Mancini for Comeback player of the year? Even if he's average he's got it on lock right?
Steve Adams
2:11
Yeah, I would call Mancini the favorite for it assuming he stays on the field. I'm struggling to think of a Daniel Bard-ish type of player in the AL right now. Wade Davis would be a nice comeback but he wouldn't come close to Mancini.
The Great Cornholio
2:11
When is Soto a free agent? And is he the first 400 million dollar man?
Steve Adams
2:13
He's a free agent in the 2024-25 offseason. I think he has a chance at 400+, yes, although he may not be the first. Wouldn't rule Lindor out of that conversation if he has a big 2021 and doesn't sign an extension, for instance.
Cole J.
2:13
Will Odorizzi be able to get his 3 years at 13-15M? Is he worth that?
Steve Adams
2:15
I think he's easily worth it in a normal setting, but so many teams this winter just don't want to spend. He's an easy 30 starts with above-average track record in strikeouts, walk rate and overall run prevention; he doesn't give you huge innings totals or work deep into games, but that's par for the course for starting pitchers in this day and age. He'll top out at six innings more often than not, but how many managers really ask guys to go seven, eight, nine innings anymore? Odorizzi is damn good on a per-inning basis, and $13-15MM is barely more than fourth starter money in free agency.
Neal Huntington's former roommat
2:17
What signing surprised you the most so far?
Steve Adams
2:21
Guess I'm grabbing all kinds of Neal Huntington questions today, ha. Didn't even notice that.

A few come to mind...

I was surprised Tanaka went back to Japan, as he was a clear upgrade for plenty of teams. But it seems he always wanted Yankees or back to Japan, so maybe he never explored his other options that much.

I was pretty bullish on James McCann, but I was the high guy on him among MLBTR staff and I topped out around 3/30.

I'm still pretty amazed that the Padres gave $21MM and a pair of opt outs to Jurickson Profar.
mancini
2:21
if i have a good season, will i get a extension?
Steve Adams
2:21
More likely he'll be traded.
Grossman
2:21
For $10M over 2 years is a horrible signing, considering the contracts that have been handed out this offseason.
Steve Adams
2:21
I don't know about "horrible," but I think there were better values and I was surprised by that one, too.
Rich
2:22
Do you think the position of a "starting" pitcher eventually goes away? It seems like we're on a trajectory of every game becoming a "bullpen" game.
Steve Adams
2:23
I wouldn't be surprised if some lower-payroll clubs eventually move to a model where they're primarily letting guys face the order just one time.
Re: Nats
2:23
Would a T. Turner extension be over or under $25m AAV?
Steve Adams
2:24
Depends when it's agreed to. The inclusion of the final arb year will weigh down the overall AAV, but I would say the free-agent seasons would be valued at  more than $25MM.
cpins
2:25
Lindor opt out 8/$25m?  $42.5m x 4 yrs - opt out - final 4 yrs @ $20m each?  Any chance it piques his interest?
Steve Adams
2:25
Your numbers don't add up. 8 at 25 per would be 200. Your 42.5x4 and 20x4 comes to 250.

Either way, I doubt he takes it.
Nickle Pickle
2:26
Do you see any expansion happening in the next 5 years?
Steve Adams
2:27
I don't think that quickly, no. It'll need to be collectively bargained and I don't think expansion will be anywhere near the top of their priority list this time around.
Michael
2:27
If Trevor rosethal is traded during the season by the A’s to another team who pays the unique salary structure for him in the next 2 years. Oakland or the tesm
Steve Adams
2:27
That would be negotiated as part of the trade. Could be either club -- just depends who agrees to what.
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