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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/26/24
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Jake
1:28
Why do teams wait so long to place players destined for the IL to start the season? For example, we have known for awhile that Vaughn Grissom would not be ready to start the season for the Red Sox, why is he not currently listed on the IL?
Steve Adams
1:30
Because it doesn't matter when they do. I assume this is fantasy related, as that's always a point of consternation for fantasy owners, but MLB clubs care little for those of us in fantasy baseball haha. They'll put Grissom on the 10-day IL once they fill out their roster and formally make the transactions selecting contracts/optioning players, etc.

Same deal with the 60-day IL. I get questions on that a lot (and have some in here re: Rangers' 60-day guys and several other teams')... teams will make 60-day IL moves as a corresponding move when they want to add someone else.
Gwynning
1:30
Hey Steve, thanks for the chat. Put your tinfoil future cap on and tell me how this Shohei thing breaks down. I know that we know next-to-nothing, but I suspect he'll be proven "innocent"...  what's your take?
Steve Adams
1:33
I think his PR team handled this as poorly as humanly possible. I won't pretend to know anything about the specifics of whether he's involved or not. I found the original story perfectly believable and, like everyone else, found it weird when they did a 180 the following day. If they'd just gone with one version of the events from the jump, I don't think there'd be as much controversy. The back-and-forth is weird.

Some people would've been quick to assume the worst about Ohtani in any "scandal" that came up, as they just resent the huge contract, the deferred money, and the constant media attention. But the handling of the whole thing creates justifiable skepticism even from people who had no prior animosity toward Ohtani, which is a shame. This will probably follow him forever. I'm not convinced one way or another and will just sit back and let it play out.
Bad Blood
1:34
Did the Giants maybe have to shoehorn Hicks into the rotation and pray after signing a bunch of lower-middle tier guys to "Starting" Pitcher contracts, only to use them as bulk relievers? Has anyone said anything about that's why they didn't want to go to San Fran? I feel like Snell only did because $30 million means he's a STARTING pitcher
Steve Adams
1:36
I think for some mid-tier guys who were getting comparable offers a lot of places, that's certainly possible. Alex Wood and Ross Stripling have both spoken openly about how they were surprised with the Giants' usage of them in 2023.

That said, the Giants also have a reputation for rehabbing pitchers and maximizing their performance (Gausman, Rodon, DeSclafani [the first time], Junis, etc. etc.) -- that should also carry some weight. I don't know why they handled the staff the way they did this winter, but it looks a lot better with Snell riding in to save them to some extent.
Brew Crew
1:37
Did Mike Clevinger sign yet?  I think he would fit well in Milwaukee
Lorne Malvo
1:37
Where does Monty end up and when?
Steve Adams
1:37
Nope on Clev. He's still out there looking for a one-year deal.
1:39
I've gotten about 80 questions to this exact effect regarding Jordan Montgomery so I might as well answer one, even if it's boring....

I don't think Jordan Montgomery knows where/when/how much he'll sign, so I certainly don't know. Red Sox have made the most sense to me for some time now, but they've continually balked at the price. The longer that goes on, the longer I wonder if some surprising team will jump in. Waiting until after Opening Day makes some sense to render him immune from a QO -- at least, if he's going to sign a deal that allows him to return to the market next winter.

Darragh wrote about that here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/why-jordan-montgomery-may-wait-...
Matt
1:39
Seen a few rumblings online about the D-Backs being in on Monty. What’s the chance that happens?
Steve Adams
1:40
I haven't seen anything concrete on the D-backs/Monty aside from Jim Bowden tweeting in generally speculative fashion.

There's an obvious fit there, particularly with E-Rod hurting, but the Snakes are already at a franchise-record payroll level. I'd be surprised, but only in the sense that it'd be such a step forward in terms of spending (relative to their previous standards).

In terms of roster fit/need, yeah it makes good sense.
Tax collector
1:41
Is my recollection faulty, or are the salary tax implications more applicable this year?
Steve Adams
1:41
There are more teams than ever in tax territory this season, yes, and more who are repeat offenders (and thus facing stiffer penalties) as well.
Pitcher Plant
1:42
Given the injuries the Twins have had on the pitching side this spring, what are the odds they sign one or more additional arms going into the season, at least to minor-league contracts? Is someone like Clevinger or Thor a possibility?
Steve Adams
1:43
I doubt Clevinger just because he's looking for a big league deal. The Twins seemingly wouldn't beat the Rangers' $4.5MM on Lorenzen. Doubt they'd offer much to Clev.

Syndergaard seems like he might need to take a minor league deal at this point, so that's feasible. Zach Davies, Johnny Cueto, Julio Teheran are all in a similar bucket of veteran guys who might be limited to a minors deal at this point.

Signing someone of that ilk seems feasible, sure.
Mike
1:44
Do you possibly think Nolan Jones is a trade candidate this year?
Steve Adams
1:45
The Rockies are reluctant to trade their guys even on the cusp of free agency. Jones has five more years of club control. I think he's more an extension candidate than trade candidate. Colorado tends to jump at the chance to extend their young players after they get their first taste of success (which, let's face it, has not worked out especially well for them).
Walter
1:45
What if the Guardians are in first place at the deadline...Do they trade Shane Bieber or gamble that he does not accept the QO at the end of the year?
Steve Adams
1:46
If they're in first place I'm sure they'll just keep Bieber and make the QO. As long as he's healthy, he'd be a good bet to reject -- even if he's not the same guy he was at his peak.
Pete Alonso
1:47
What’s the deal with me? Who will I play for over the next 2 years, will I be traded, and where will I sign in the off-season?
Steve Adams
1:48
He'll play for the Mets this season, reach free agency at season's end, reject a qualifying offer and test the market. I've said multiple times my expectation is for him to see what's out there and the Mets to just match/beat whatever the market bears (similar to the Yankees' handling of Judge)
Reds Fan
1:48
Is Mike Ford proof that Spring Training statistics are meaningless?
Steve Adams
1:49
I don't think you need Mike Ford to prove that. History tells us that huge spring performances are outliers far more often than not. Spring training is more interesting if a guy is having success due to a new pitch, a noticeable change in his mechanics, improved health, etc. -- far more so than just someone having 40 fluky plate appearances and hitting .450 in that time (e.g. Hoy Park in Oakland this spring)
Zach Davies
1:49
Didn't I sign with the Nationals?
Steve Adams
MoonBeamMcSwine
1:50
Pretty sad Mr. Adams.. Shane Bieber is reaching his peak now.. he'll never be what he was, he'll be a lot better with more experience..
Steve Adams
1:52
If he's going to be better than the guy he was in 2020, when his fastball had 3-4 extra mph on it and he was striking out more than 40% of his opponents, then a second Cy Young is in order.

But his velo's down more than 3 mph, his K% in 2023 was less than half his Cy Young season, and he's dealt with multiple injuries over the past two seasons.

I loved watching peak Bieber pitch, so I hope you're right. I don't see it, but I'm a sucker for elite pitching and would often rather watch a 1-0 pitchers' duel than a 12-11 slugfest, so here's hoping!
Phillies OF
1:53
There are a lot of question marks surrounding the Phillies OF (can Marsh hit lefties?  Can Rojas hit at all?  Is Merrifield going to play too much?) but none bigger than Castellanos, who appears to be on the verge of cratering.  How does his contract play out?
Steve Adams
1:54
It's already gone poorly. I think Phils fans generally didn't mind his performance in '23 since he still knocked in 100 runs, but his overall rate stats weren't too much better than league average, and the defense was characteristically poor. I don't know how they'll manage to trade him -- though bad contract swaps do happen -- so I think they'll be left to just hope he hits enough to offset the glovework for now. Could look real ugly in year five though.
1:55
But if Castellanos gets back to the hitter he was in '21 when he had 50 more points of OBP, 75 more of ISO and another 100 of SLG, who cares about the glove? 2021 Castellanos was a monster.
Jack P
1:55
what does Minnesota do with Buxton and that contract if he plays less than 100 games again
Steve Adams
1:56
Shrug? It's $15MM per year and only escalates toward its $23MM max if he stays healthy enough to garner MVP votes. The $15MM AAV isn't ideal for a team with a relatively modest payroll, but it's also hardly a backbreaker for them.
CardsMan
1:57
lie to me, tell me Victor Scott is MLB material
Steve Adams
1:57
I don't need to lie to you to tell you that. I don't know if he is quite yet, but the glove and speed are MLB-caliber even if he never hits. Might be a fourth OF, but he should be a big leaguer.
Bucs
1:58
Does O'Neil Cruz stay at SS long term, or is he bound to move to DH/RF?
Steve Adams
1:58
RF feels likelier to me, just given the lack of precedent for shortstops of his size.
BlueJayCrazy
1:58
Would you have signed JD Davis to play 3B if you were the Jay's GM? I'm not a fan of IKF's bat.
Steve Adams
1:59
I'd have preferred Davis on a one-year deal to IKF for two, yeah. I found the IKF deal puzzling at the time, and it looks worse now that you've seen Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario and Davis all sign under $3MM.
That was generally unforeseeable at the time, to be clear, but even when they signed Kiner-Falefa, it was for more than I expected and didn't do a ton to answer some of the more glaring questions on the roster.
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