JotCast | Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/6/18

Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/6/18

Steve Adams

3:09

Three weeks or so until Opening Day and there's still somehow a legitimate free agent market to talk about

Let's begin

Drew

3:10

Is this the week Arrieta signs? Phillies perhaps?

Steve Adams

3:11

More than anyone else, I wonder if Arrieta will simply hold out for an injury. Unless Boras can make a huge pitch to Ted Lerner to get Darvish money or more, I just don't see him suddenly deciding "Yeah I'll take three years from Philadelphia."

Eric

3:11

Is Robinson Cano a future hall of famer?

Steve Adams

3:11

I think so, yeah. He's already over 50 career WAR, he'll probably clear 60 with ease, and he's going to end up with 3000+ hits, 400+ homers, etc.

Drew

3:12

Anyway the Phils don't come away with one of Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb?

Steve Adams

3:13

I expect them to sign one of the three but I don't think they feel any urgency to do so. If they can get Lynn/Cobb at 1-2 years or Arrieta at 3 years (probably with a huge AAV and an opt out), then sure.

Bubba

3:13

So since the Twins swung and missed on Darvish. Why would they not take that money and make a serious run at Lynn/Cobb. Not lowball Lynn at what 6 mil a year?

Steve Adams

3:14

Because Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn aren't anywhere near as good as Darvish and aren't worth anywhere near the four-year deals at the rates they're reportedly seeking (hence remaining unsigned).

3:15

Alex Cobb has never reached 180 innings or 30 starts in a season. Lance Lynn had like a 4.60-4.80 FIP/xFIP/SIERA last year and largely posted the ERA he did because of an elevated strand rate and tiny BABIP. His K/BB numbers tanked last year.

Theo Epstein

3:15

Any chance I make a run for Greg Holland on a cheap deal?

Steve Adams

3:16

If he ends up taking a year, maybe, but I don't think the Cubs are going to go multiple years on him at this point -- still like the fit and wouldn't mind them doing like 2/22 or something Morrow-ish but doesn't sound like that's in their plans.

Sufferfortribe

3:16

I’m hungry. Bean and cheese tostadas or tuna melt?

Steve Adams

3:16

I literally finished eating a tuna melt myself like 90 minutes ago, ha

Noah

3:16

What's the story on Lucroy?

Steve Adams

3:18

Not many teams looking for starting catchers, and he was terrible in '17. I still think the A"s or Nats make sense, but at this point I have a really hard time seeing him getting multiple years or even a starting job, barring injury.

Anthony

3:19

Am I the only one convinced the Twins pulled off the steal of the off season by signing LoMo for 6.5m/y?

Steve Adams

3:19

There've been plenty of good deals in recent weeks, but that's among the best. To those who say Morrison was only good for one year, he posted a 130 wRC+ last season and a 130 wRC+ from May 2016 through season's end as well. He's at 130 over his past 900ish MLB PAs -- I'm buying.

Andrew

3:20

Why haven’t the angels bitten on holland yet? Seems like a perfect fit and his price has do have dropped at least a little right? They have about 20 mil to play with and closer seems like the biggest need at this point.

Steve Adams

3:22

They haven't shown much of an inclination to go multiple years on any reliever. As for a need at closer, Greg Holland wasn't any better than Blake Parker last year. In fact, Parker was decisively and overwhelmingly better:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0...

Adam Duvall

3:23

Am I getting traded for prospects?

Steve Adams

3:25

If you are, it won't be for many. Duvall is a .300ish OBP guy, and he can go ask Mike Moustakas how excited teams are about that level of player. Moreover, corner-only bats aren't exactly in high demand these days. and there'll be a good dozen or so on the market this summer. I doubt they'd get too much in return.

Steve

3:26

Will the M's sign one of the free agent pitchers to help their rotation anytime soon?

Steve Adams

3:27

They haven't signed a QO free agent under Dipoto, and I'd imagine that like the rest of the league, they are largely underwhelmed by Lynn/Cobb.

Tommy Pham

3:28

Cardinals did not make me a contract offer like the did DeJohn. WHY? They want try to Catch the Cubs and now I am one of the trop players on the team and they want pay me??!! Why??!!

Steve Adams

3:29

Pham turns 30 on Thursday and they already control him through age 33. I doubt they feel a need to pay any sort of premium for his age-34 season and beyond.

Rob S

3:30

Corner-only bats aren't in high demand. 2B (Neil Walker) isn't in demand. Starting catchers (Lucroy) aren't in demand. How did this happen?????

Steve Adams

3:32

Corner bats haven't been in demand for awhile. Catching is always in demand, but I think a lot of teams have questions about Lucroy's ability at this point.

The Neil Walker thing is genuinely weird. As a 1B/2B/3B/DH who gets 400-450 PAs, he could probably give a team a good two wins at something like 1/8 or 2/14. Back surgery in 2016 notwithstanding, he's a good, albeit not star-level player. There are so many teams that should jump on him

Whoa

Royals announce they've signed Jon Jay

And Jesse Hahn to 60-day DL with a UCL sprain. Ouch.

3:33

Financial terms not announced (they never are except for the Blue Jays, White Sox and Twins), but I imagine they'll be leaked to KC media shortly.

Jim Thomas

3:33

Do the Royals trade Perez and Duffy at mid season? If so, what would be the expected return? Thanks.

Steve Adams

3:36

I just can't see them trading Perez without the fans rioting. Plus rebuilding teams seem to value veteran catchers more than other positions given the work with young pitchers they put in.

I can see Duffy being moved this summer; return will be dependent on what kind of first half he has, of course, but 3.5 years of an above-average starter making $15MM annually through age 32 is very nice. He won't fetch a Quintana haul because he's more expensive, but he should net a top 100 type of guy and some other quality pieces. He's probably their best trade piece.

Cubfan Rizz

3:36

Are the cubs trading heyward? Please answer

Steve Adams

3:36

No one is taking that contract

Dongodile

3:36

What do you think happens with Matt Joyce, midseason trade or extension?

Steve Adams

3:37

Flipped mideason or, if he struggles, just DFAed