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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/7/23
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Charlesco
12:40
When does Taj Bradley arrive?
Steve Adams
12:41
Probably sometime in the season's first half. Not sure they'll jump him right to the bigs out of the gate, but if they lose a second starter for any meaningful period of time, that becomes far likelier.
Taylor
12:41
No shot Paul Blackburn opens with the A's, his stuff plays too well everywhere and he upgrades a whole bunch of contenders back end of the rotation. Is there a more obvious SP ST candidate than Blackburn?
Steve Adams
12:43
He spent the final few months of the 2022 season on the injured list, has been rocked in his lone spring training appearance so far, and has three years of club control remaining. I don't agree that he's an obvious spring trade candidate. I think they'll let him try to right the ship early in the year, demonstrate his health, and look to move him at the deadline.

That said, he's a command-driven back-of-the-rotation arm, so the return isn't going to be massive.
Osfan
12:43
Orioles playoff bound yes?
Steve Adams
12:45
If they get 90th percentile outcomes from Adley, Henderson, Rodriguez, Hall, etc. -- perhaps? They're playing in a tough division, and the only thing they did to markedly improve the club over 2022 was acquire an innings eater (Cole Irvin) swap out Adam Frazier for Rougned Odor.

They'll have full seasons of Rutschman/Henderson and perhaps Rodriguez, which obviously helps a great deal, but does it help enough to push them to the playoffs? I'm not convinced, particularly since I think several of their other starters (Wells, Kremer) are regression candidates.

I just think they should've done more this offseason, even though I'm obviously quite bullish on the very top end of the emergent young core.
Taylor
12:46
" has been rocked in his lone spring training appearance so far" - cant believe you actually wrote this, you call yourself an analyst? nope.
Steve Adams
12:47
A guy coming off an injury coming out and allowing 7 of 10 baserunners he faces doesn't make everyone feel great. Of course spring stats don't matter on a macro level, but it's not a good first impression for someone whose last impression was getting shelled for five outings while he tried to pitch through a torn tendon in his hand.
Brian C. From NY
12:48
Hi Steve-given his $6MM arb salary and limited offensive upside, what could I even expect to get back from the Dodgers (or anyone else) for Kiner-Falefa?
Steve Adams
12:50
There's so much "Dodgers/IKF" hope from Yankee fans, but I just don't really see it. Kiner-Falefa didn't have a great 2022, the Dodgers already added Miguel Rojas, they have other multi-position guys on the roster, etc.

I don't think the Dodgers would give up anything particularly meaningful for IKF. He's a fine bench piece for the Yankees in a vacuum, but he's a bit redundant when considering the broader context of that roster.
AA
12:50
Is Carlos Rodon contract the floor of Max Fried´s next contract?
Steve Adams
12:52
I don't think it's the floor by any stretch; if he gets hurt or has just a fairly pedestrian 2023-24 showing, I'm not going to consider that type of contract a lock. I do think it's a somewhat reasonable approximation for his present value, but a lot can change between now and the end of the 2024 season.
Guest
12:52
Will someone take a chance on Gary Sanchez or Miguel Sano?
Steve Adams
12:53
Probably a minor league deal for both of those guys at this point. Maybe Gary can get a roster spot and a few million, but if it hasn't happened by now, it'd probably require an injury to a catcher somewhere.
Skipjack
12:54
I don't have a lot of confidence in Graveman being the closer this season , or even closer-by-committee. What are your thoughts?
Steve Adams
12:57
Graveman's been a very good reliever for two-plus years now (also including Sept. 2020) -- I don't think the move to the ninth inning is going to turn him into a pumpkin. Throws hard, misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground well, decent (albeit a bit below average) command... I think he'll be fine in the role. There aren't many better than Liam Hendriks, of course, but that doesn't mean Graveman can't do a nice job in his stead.
Seattle
12:57
If kelenic can keep this up does that change alot for seattle going forward
Steve Adams
12:58
Of course, but you're looking at like six game of spring training so I wouldn't just start saying he's turned into everything everyone thought he could be a couple years ago.
Clock? Meh
12:59
I really don't see the big deal about the time it takes to play a game. Your football comparison is off because generally speaking, people don't watch regular season baseball games beginning to end. Baseball is about taking the kids to the park to have a good time, and shorter games will be bad for the teams' bottom lines. The whole thing is overblown.
Steve Adams
1:02
Look at the amount of money that TBS, ESPN, FOX, Apple and NBC/Peacock paid for streaming and national television rights. The league wants to keep interest in what'll surely be a growing streaming presence and massive advertising revenues during those times.

By the numbers Forbes reported last spring after the Apple and Peacock deals were finalized, you were talking $65MM per team between those five TV/streaming deals (before considering local broadcasts, gate, etc.)

I can appreciate that for you and for a lot of fans, it's about going to the park with the kiddos. I can't wait until my own son is old enough to go to a game with me and really appreciate it. But I don't think that's universally true of fans, and I don't think it's reflective of the way MLB envisions its revenue model in the long run.
Joe
1:02
Do you see Mike Minor realistically having success in a relief role if the Cubs were to sign him?
Steve Adams
1:03
Depends hugely on health; he's been a very successful reliever in the past, but that was five years and a few injuries ago. I'd have more faith in a 'pen role than in a return to the rotation, I suppose.
1:06
Sorry had to take a phone call quickly.
Nats Nathaniel
1:06
Odds that Juan Soto comes back after 2024?
Steve Adams
1:08
I think that'd be fun, but odds are going to be against it, of course. Padres are going to try to extend him for the next two years, and even if he gets to free agency, they'll be competing with all of the game's biggest spenders. The Nats, of course, have been a big spender themselves ... but do we even know who'll own the team at that point? Hard to bet on them
AA
1:08
At what point is ozuna not worth the roster spot he occupies and i decided to just cut him
Steve Adams
1:08
Surprised they haven't already
Cranky_Old_Fart
1:09
Matt Olson and Christian walker had virtually identical stat lines in 2022.  Why does Matt get all the love?
Steve Adams
1:10
Probably just because Olson's been doing it more consistently for a longer period of time. But to your point, Christian Walker is super underrated.
1:12
Alright I've got to wrap up for the week. Thanks, as always, for chatting -- and sorry for all the questions I can't get to in these. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve for more questions (or to yell at me/insult me if you prefer to do that instead).

You can also consider signing up for our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which (among other things) grants you access to a weekly subscriber-only chat, where your odds of getting a question answered are obviously much higher due to the smaller attendance. Subscribers also get ad-free viewing, weekly email articles from Anthony and myself, exclusive fantasy baseball advice from Brad Johnson, autograph giveaways and more. It starts at $2.99/month, and you can read more or sign up here:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-3-7-23
Have a great week, everyone!
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