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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/11/23
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Steve Adams
1:39
Negativity stems from a disappointing year in 2022 and a general lack of a deep playoff run on the heels of a years-long rebuild. They haven't become the perennial contender fans hoped for.

For me, my pessimism on the White Sox stems from their glaring lack of depth and a growing frequency of injuries among their core players. The farm isn't good -- understandable with so many graduates to the MLB roster after the rebuild -- and once you start mixing in a few key injuries, it's going to look bad.

Their sixth starter is Davis Martin, and after that ... yikes. Their middle infield is already a combo of Elvis Andrus/Lenyn Sosa/Romy Gonzalez, which isn't great. The catching corps is suspect.

The Sox have a great core, but it's a topheavy roster without a lot of help in the upper minors if/when things go awry.
I'm Sorry But
1:40
A guy named Outman should be a pitcher.
Steve Adams
1:40
You want Josh Outman! Reliever with Oakland, Colorado, Cleveland briefly the Yankes from 2008-14.
1:41
No relation to James, that I'm aware of haha
Red Sox activated Garrett Whitlock just now
Kutter Crawford optioned
1:42
Also Mets claimed righty Seth Elledge from the Braves while the chat was ongoing.
Orioles
1:42
Is Rustchman a legit MVP candidate this year? Seems to be following the footsteps of guys like Posey and Mauer
Steve Adams
1:42
I think he's the best-hitting catcher in baseball, so yeah he'll get some MVP consideration in the years to come (and probably some this year)
Dingledork
1:43
Who are realistic trade candidates for the A's?
Steve Adams
1:44
I assume this means candidates for who they'll trade AWAY this summer.

Tony Kemp, Jace Peterson, Aledmys Diaz, Jesus Aguilar, Ramon Laureano, Trevor May, Jeurys Familia could all go.

Laureano is the big one if he's hitting, and so far he is.
John
1:45
Will you guys do more team specific chats throughout the year? Really enjoyed that in the offseason
Steve Adams
1:46
We did them in conjunction with the Offseason Outlook series in October/November and Offseason Review series in Feb/March. Right now we don't have any planned during the season; perhaps we could revisit the idea around deadline time though. Worth kicking around. I'll bring it up with the group in the near future.
Arcman
1:47
Could the A's have the worst record in modern baseball era?  This is definitely the worst team i have seen them put on the field in 50 years.
Steve Adams
1:48
I think it almost takes a level of luck to put a team that bad together, but this A's team is staggeringly bad and seems like a lock for 100+ losses.
I just can't fathom any modern team finishing the season at like... 38-39 wins.
More speed guys
1:49
Do 1-tool speed guys have more of a chance of spending most of the year on the same big league club because of the new rules that makes stealing bags more prevalent? That is to say, what is the likelihood a guy like Tim Locastro is with the Mets all year long (barring an injury)?
Steve Adams
1:50
I don't think so. If it's easier to steal bases in general, then doesn't carrying a guy whose sole strength is doing the thing that's now easier become more questionable? At a certain point, the Mets will need the 40-man spot, and it's hard to justify carrying a guy who's basically just there to run.

I like Locastro, but I'd argue that easier steals actually creates less urgency to carry that type of player.
Sparky
1:51
Torkelson: file me under concerned.
Steve Adams
1:54
I'm still buying Tork, though not to the extent I was this time in 2022. But he's still making tons of hard contact, he doesn't strike out much.

He's swinging a ton more in 2023, which is good, because I think part of the problem in '22 was that his selectiveness teetered on passivity, but there's a balance that needs to be found. He's swinging at 39% of pitches off the plate currently (about 8 percentage above average), and while his contact rate on pitches off the plate is great, those aren't the ones  you want to be hitting, either.

I think it still speaks to his bat-to-ball skills, though, and if he can winnow it down and really start focusing on the pitches he can do damage on, then that quality of contact will start to translate into results.
Tigers
1:54
2003 Detroit Tigers won 43 games, is that really far off from 38-39 wins?
Steve Adams
1:56
In general, current teams are smarter, run better and are better at developing/improving players in 2023 than they were in 2003. Even that '03 Tigers team probably needed some bad luck to get THAT bad.
Giacgara
1:56
Logan Webb:  Third straight poor outing, ERA over 6.  Reason for concern?  Affect his extension chances?
Steve Adams
2:00
I'm not overly concerned. He's missing more bats, issuing fewer walks. Velocity is mostly fine, albeit down about half a mile per hour from its '21 peak, but that could just be a matter of building it up as the season goes on. He's given up some loud contact, which isn't great, but I'm not stressing majorly over that when you're looking at a three-game sample. You'd like to see less of it, but we're talking a sample of 45 balls in play right now, so a barrel or two here and there can still really skew things.

I think he'll turn things around sooner than later, though I'm not convinced he can sustain his current K-BB% gains.
Tim
2:01
How long until the Nats compete again. I’m guessing 2024
Steve Adams
2:01
I'm a good bit further down the road than that. 2025 at the very earliest, possibly longer.
Bouch
2:02
I understand it is still early, but what can the Padres make of the catching issues? Neither are doing great on offense and Nola has allowed 12 SBs this year. While the position isn't one where offense is #1 priority, how long do you see the Padres holding on to Nola/Campusano or do you see them going out and getting an upgrade somewhere?
Steve Adams
2:03
Campusano's had 12 plate appearances. I believe in the bat still. I know the Padres love Nola, but I'd like to finally see what Campusano can do as the primary guy.
TigerDoc
2:03
Should these chats this early in the season be titled "Small Sample Size?"
Steve Adams
2:06
Ha yeah -- the majority of the questions this time of year every year are "Is this real?" and the answer is almost universally "Not really."

But there are times where even the small-sample data can show us something. The Giants have Sean Manaea throwing 95 mph, for instance. That's interesting! Kris Bubic has a new slider that looks great. That's interesting! The Tork changes in swing tendencies I referenced earlier carries some weight for me.

Stuff like Elehuris Montero getting 50% of his balls in play to fall for hits while sporting a 10-to-1 K/BB ratio is less exciting and likelier to balance out over time.
CardsFanSince1973
2:07
What are your thoughts on Jordan Walker so far?
Steve Adams
2:10
He's 20 and he skipped AAA entirely, so it's hard not to be impressed. Lots of hard, loud contact. He's chasing a lot and barring some changes in his approach that aggression could eventually be exposed in a way it hasn't so far, but I mean ... he's 20. That SHOULD be the case. He's not supposed to be doing what he's done already, and it'd be freakish if there were just no holes in his game at all.

Given what he's done to date and given the walk rates and such in the minors, I won't put it past him to adjust on the fly, start being more selective, and hold up as a very productive hitter all season. There's SOME degree of BABIP regression coming, but that's inevitable in a sample of like 40 PAs.

Love the bat, fun hitter to watch, and he was my preseason ROY pick in the NL.
Dang
2:11
Zach Eflin placed on the IL for the Rays, groin strain.

Top pitching prospect Taj Bradley up for his MLB debut tomorrow.
Natsman
2:11
We're closer to competing than most people think.
Steve Adams
2:11
Feel free to call me out in 2024 if that's the case!
2:12
Alright I've got to wrap up for the week. Thanks, as always, for chatting -- and sorry for all the questions I can't get to in these. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve if you're so inclined and always happy to take more questions there.

You can also consider signing up for our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which grants you access to a weekly subscriber-only chat (among other perks), and your odds of getting a question answered in those is obviously much higher. Subscribers also get ad-free viewing, weekly email articles from Anthony and myself, exclusive fantasy baseball advice from Brad Johnson, autograph giveaways and more. It starts at $2.99/month, and you can read more or sign up here:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-4-11-23

Have a great week, everyone!
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