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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/14/26
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Steve Adams
8:31
Good morning! We'll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to begin submitting questions ahead of time, as always.
12:58
Good afternoon! Let's get underway.
Ross Atkins
12:58
injuries have plagued us. With the several different timelines on players coming back, do you think we will still be a playoff team?
Steve Adams
1:00
The Blue Jays are one of the teams hit hardest by injuries this season, but the division has been pretty even as a whole thus far. It also doesn't seem like Yesavage -- their most impactful absence on the pitching side -- is looking at something super long term. I still like the Jays to reach the postseason, but the early slog of health troubles has obviously lessened their odds.
Jordan Walker
1:01
Tell me you were wrong!!
Steve Adams
1:01
Do this for another few months and I sure will.
Free Agency
1:01
Do you believe players heading into free agency play a lot harder to collect all the counting stats to oversell themselves to prospective teams?
Steve Adams
1:04
Teams don't really pay anyone based on counting stats in 2026. The one exception I could see is maybe guys running a bit more on the bases, but no one's giving someone an extra year or two because they stole a handful of extra bags.

I do still wonder if there was some of that at play with, say, Josh Naylor last summer. And then once he gained confidence in his reads and picking his spots, he just went wild with it.

In general, I feel like the whole "contract year" narrative is overblown. There are countless examples of guys having huge years before free agency but just as many instances of someone cratering in his walk season.

Year-to-year performance is volatile.
Astros71
1:04
Should we be concerned about Abreu?
Steve Adams
1:05
It's concerning that his velo is down a bit, yeah. I can't help but wonder if he's tipping pitches in a fashion similar to Ryan Helsley with the Mets last year, though.

Bryan Abreu is SO good, and to see him suddenly struggle to this extent is just mind-boggling, even in a small sample.
He has a 99 mph average exit velo and an 82% hard-hit rate among his opponents. He's given up three homers in five innings. It's wild.
Giants Bullpen
1:05
Is there any righting this ship?
Steve Adams
1:06
Build a time machine, go back to November, and actually invest ... well, literally anything in the bullpen? They traded two of their best relievers last July, lost their other one in September to Tommy John surgery, and then just did nothing. I have never understood it.
will
1:07
is Kay legit? is Grant Taylor being used correctly fo his future? why trade Sosa? Sox are killin me! thank you
Steve Adams
1:09
Kay's swinging-strike rate is way below average, as is his 17.2% strikeout rate. His command has been poor. Nothing he's doing right now makes me think he can sustain a sub-3.00 ERA -- or even a passable one. Obviously we're only looking at three outings, but his spring wasn't great either and I talked to scouts in the offseason who considered him more of a non-roster invite/minor league deal guy than someone who should command a big league deal. White Sox obviously disagreed. We'll see how it plays out, but I'm not super optimistic based on early returns.
1:10
I think Sox fans in general value Sosa more highly than the industry. He played regularly last year and hit 22 homers, I get that. But he's a perennial sub-.300 OBP with one of the worst walk rates in baseball, prominent platoon splits and no real defensive home despite some nominal versatility.

He wasn't a core piece there and probably isn't going to last the whole season on Toronto's roster. Darragh and I talked about this trade for a bit on the podcast episode that's going to drop tomorrow morning.
1:11
I'd let Taylor try to start since this is a transition/building year anyhow, but I think he's ultimately a reliever, with a decent chance at being a good high-leverage one.
Tigs
1:12
Do you think J Jackson will hold a roster spot after several Baltimore positional players come off IR ?
Steve Adams
1:13
I don't think Jeremiah Jackson is anywhere near as good a hitter as his results suggest dating back to last year, but he has a bit of versatility and a full slate of minor league options left. So even if he doesn't stick on the major league roster, he'll stay around in AAA as a depth piece who'll be summoned whenever injuries dictate.
Squinky
1:13
Sal Stewart the real deal?
Steve Adams
1:13
Sal can mash
1:14
Fully in on him as a legitimate middle-of-the-order type at first base.
SCR
1:14
Do you see 18-20 saves from a not-so-obvious closer this year ?
Steve Adams
1:17
I suppose Lucas Erceg doesn't count, but he's better than Carlos Estevez anyway.

Texas situation is pretty up in the air. I don't think Junis will hold it. Cole Winn is probably my favorite of the arms in that bunch. Griffin Jax in Tampa has been hit hard but is SO talented that I could see him running with the closer role at some point. I am perpetually the "down" guy on Emilio Pagan among the MLBTR staff and I like Graham Ashcraft in the 'pen, so that's intriguing to me. But Pagan's going to have plenty of leash if he's healthy.
Steve Cohen
1:18
Didier Fuentes is lights out in AAA. Why haven’t the Braves called him up yet?
Steve Adams
1:20
He's made two starts and has walked or plunked 19% of the hitters he's faced. I wouldn't say he's been lights out, but I don't think it matters. They're so stretched for arms that I'd imagine Fuentes gets another look in the very near future. The alternative is ... Jose Suarez? JR Ritchie is far more interesting to me, for what it's worth, though he's probably dinged a bit by not being on the 40-man roster.
Mets offense
1:20
Without soto, is this getting any better?
Steve Adams
1:24
Yeah, it will. Bo Bichette is too good a hitter to continue on at this rate. He's chasing a ton, maybe pressing a bit after the big contract and in a new setting, or maybe it's just a weird small sample blip. He's still making decent quality contact.

Jorge Polanco isn't hitting the ball as hard as usual, but he's not striking out and isn't going to sustain a bottom-of-the-barrel .214 BABIP all season. He's in for a good bit of positive regression.

Same with Francisco Lindor. Carson Benge's .161 average on balls in play is 8th-worst in MLB. He's hitting too many grounders, but still, that won't hold
1:25
Fans generally don't love to hear "yeah I do think it's just a lot of small sample noise," but this time of year that's often true and I think it's especially true with what should be a talented Mets offense.

Losing Soto hurts, of course, and I didn't love some of the offseason changes (Nimmo-for-Semien, in particular), but they're better than this still.
Guardians of the Galaxy
1:26
Do you see Bibee and Cecconi turning things around soon? Seems like their ERA’s are inflated due to poor relief pitching that allows all their runners in base to score. Still Bibee does not seem like a number one. Williams and Messick have been far better.
Steve Adams
1:28
Bibee hasn't looked like a possible No. 1 starter since 2023-24. I need to dig more deeply into what changes happened with his slider -- which Statcast now quantifies as a cutter -- since that pitch's decline has really coincided with his downturn.
This version of Bibee feels like a homer-prone No. 4 starter, which isn't bad or anything, but they need him to be more since the org depth isn't what it once was, nor is the quality atop their staff.
1:30
I do think his ERA will come down, just because he's not going to keep allowing THIS many homers or running a .380 average on balls in play.

Cecconi's a lesser version of a similar profile, to me. I'd rather see him in the 'pen, but the Guardians probably need him in the rotation for now.

I don't think Williams has nearly good enough command to be a true top-end starter. Broadly, Cleveland's rotation just isn't that great to me.
Pete
1:31
How excited are you for Noah Schultz? What would you say are reasonable expectations for tonight’s contest?
Steve Adams
1:33
6'10" with a mid-90s heater that flirts with triple digits? Yeah, sign me up. I'll be watching the Sox tonight haha.

Rays haven't hit lefties well this season and don't much in the way of RH bats outside Caminero and Yandy (who are obviously both very good), so put me down for a nice debut. (And then yell at me next week when he goes 2.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K)
Lenny
1:34
You stil like the Semien trade a ton even with how Nimmo has been playing?
Steve Adams
1:35
I said I didn't love that trade. Didn't get it then, don't get it now. Would rather have Nimmo. The whole "we need to improve the defense" explanation doesn't really pass muster when you follow it up by signing Jorge Polanco to play more 1B than any other position and then sign Bichette to move him to 3B
Sec. 315
1:35
Has CJ Abrams’ hot start upped his value to the point where middle infielder needy teams may be ready to bite the bullet on Taboni’s trade ask?  Thoughts on possible suitors?
Steve Adams
1:37
Nothing thus far has really changed my view of him. I touted him as a high-end trade piece all winter and think he was and still is just that. He's had huge three-month performances to start each of the past two seasons before collapsing. The challenge is getting him to maintain and also finding a new defensive home.

Abrams is hitting the ball harder and walking more, if you're looking for positive indicators, but 60 PAs isn't enough for me to read much into either, especially when he's chasing a bit more and his overall contact rate is down considerably.
1:40
I think Abrams should command a very strong return if the Nats move him this summer -- multiple top prospects -- and he should hold interest to a pretty wide swath of teams. He'd be better suited at 2B or in the OF than shortstop. A team like the Pirates could try him at 3B.

Pittsburgh, Toronto, Kansas City, Detroit, Boston ... I can see plenty of clubs having real interest.
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