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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/17/18
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Steve Adams
3:26
Greetings! Apologies on the late start. I'd have gotten going at the top of the hour if the Rays and Brewers didn't decide they needed to announce 40-man roster moves in quick succession
3:27
I'll get going in a minute here and try to stick around for an hour or so
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
3:28
Does the Kiermaier injury affect the calculus on an Archer trade?
Steve Adams
3:29
I don't really see how or why it would. The Rays were already off to a terrible start and unlikely to make the playoffs with or without him. Archer's still controlled through 2021. They'll market him this summer and, if they don't get an offer they love, hang onto him. Same as ever.
Leo
3:29
I salvador perez an option for the mets?
Steve Adams
3:30
I'm sure if Dayton Moore wanted Kansas City fans to burn down Kauffman Stadium, he'd jump right on it. But no -- I don't think they're going to make any sort of significant move in the near future, and I definitely don't think KC moves Perez -- rebuild or not.
FREE WILLIE
3:31
When do you think we see Calhoun? Rangers players dropping like flies but have to think they wait till may with service time to consider?
Steve Adams
3:32
If they were particularly concerned about service time, I doubt they'd have called him up last year and given him three weeks of MLB time. It's performance-driven, and he currently has a .308 OBP in AAA to go along with his ongoing defensive questions.
Todd
3:32
Why does the media refer to the Mets starters as the "5 aces"? Wheeler, Matz and Harvey all under .500 for their careers.
Steve Adams
3:33
The notion of win-loss record defining (or even mattering) when labeling an ace is sillier to me than the term "five aces."

But yeah -- none of those three are aces. Harvey was at one point. Matz and Wheeler might never be healthy enough to even make it a serious debate.
Sa
3:34
Can gallo bat .260+ or is .200-.220 all he gets
Steve Adams
3:35
Probably low .200s with all the strikeouts, but if he can walk at the 15% clip he showed in 2016-17, who really cares about his batting average? The Rangers sure don't. Outside of a fantasy baseball league, that shouldn't matter.
Big Al
3:35
Atlanta Braves and 81 Wins.  You got the over?
Steve Adams
3:36
Under. They're where they are because of fluky starts from guys like Ryan Flaherty, Preston Tucker and Nick Markakis. The pitching still has tons of questions. Albies looks good thus far -- though drawing a walk wouldn't kill him -- but I don't think they're improved 10 wins over last year.
Rainier Wolfcastle
3:37
Villanueva or Pirela - Which padres keeps it up?
Steve Adams
3:38
I question Villanueva's ability to sustain more just because of the strikeouts, but I think he's at least a legitimate platoon option -- albeit one with questionable defense.
3:39
Yankees put Tommy Kahnle on the DL -- shoulder tendinitis
Luis Cessa up
And White Sox announced that Ryan Cordell (prospect they got from Brewers for Swarzak) suffered a broken collarbone and is out at least 8 weeks in AAA.
Cole
3:39
What kind of contract is Todd Frazier looking at after this season if he keeps up the prduction?
Steve Adams
3:39
He signed a two-year deal -- he'll be with the Mets through '19
Nimmo
3:40
Nimmo for JT R straight up?
Steve Adams
3:40
You are woefully undervaluing Realmuto.
Or woefully overvaluing Nimmo.
Or both.
But that's not getting it done.
That’s it, Fort Pitt
3:40
What kind of FA contract does Arenado get?
Steve Adams
3:42
If he's healthy, he'll hit free agency heading into his age-29 season and should cash in on $240MM+ -- probably with a significant AAV and some opt-outs along the way.
But he's not a free agent until after the 2019 season.
AJ Preller
3:43
Have I found the next ROY in Lucchesi?
Steve Adams
3:43
I like Lucchesi, but he's going to be competing with Kingery, eventually Ronald Acuna, probably Nick Senzel
Meat Puppets
3:45
With all due respect to all of the New Age Fangraphers, wins and batting average and ERA and HR and RBI's and all the rest of the old school statistics still matter in a real way. Not as much as we all thought, but far more than the saberminded-only folks seem to think.
Steve Adams
3:48
I think Wins are a legitimately meaningless stat that do more to mislead fans than they do inform them. Aside from "Oh he went 20-2, he's good," there's nothing to glean from them.

The GM of the World Champion Astros just said on record with Jim Bowden that he doesn't even look at many stats that are available to the public.

Home runs, yes, obviously have meaning and will continue. RBIs are more a function of context than of skill, and ERA is too dependent on defense, sequencing, etc. to be predictive of future performance.

I'm not going to tell anyone to stop following the game they want to follow it -- pay attention to whichever stats you choose -- but I don't really look at them too closely outside of home runs.
Derek
3:48
How do you see Lincecum doing out of the bullpen? Any word on when we could see him?
Steve Adams
3:49
They just put him on the 60-day DL, which pushes him back to late May, but I'm genuinely curious to see if he can be impactful there. Even in his decline, there were stretches where he was fine the first time through the order. And the velocity is already back up a bit.
I also just love Big Time Timmy Jim -- so I hope he thrives.
RBI's are a skill
3:50
you still have to have the bat to ball skill to drive in the runs, so it is actually quite a skill to be able to drive in runners on base
Steve Adams
3:50
Hitting is a skill, yes.
3:52
RBIs are a thing that happens when good hitters utilize said skill when other men are on base. I don't think there's a discernible difference in skill between hitting with men on and hitting with the bases empty, and most of the discrepancies between clutch players' bases empty vs. men on skills are largely attributable to small sample and can also be countered by other good hitters whose splits trend in the opposite direction.
AJ
3:52
All stats (wins, BA, RBIs, etc) all matter IMO, they just aren't a very good indicator of a player's skill which is what a lot of people seem to use them as
Steve Adams
3:52
I can get with this, sure. Like I said -- follow whatever stats make the game most enjoyable to you. But I'm not going to use pitcher record or a hitter's RBIs to determine how valuable or skillful they are for the purposes of my writing.
Lee
3:53
Bartolo for MVP!!
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