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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/18/23
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Steve Adams
1:44
They try a ton of stuff in the partner leagues that hasn't and won't make it into MLB. I haven't looked much into the designated pinch-runner thing but it's not something I want to see come to the Majors
John
1:45
How possible would it be for the Phillies to manipulate Noah Song's "injury" all year to get around Rule 5/roster obligations?
Steve Adams
1:45
Not possible. Even if he spends the whole year on the IL, his Rule 5 designation rolls into 2024, and he'd need 90 days on next year's active roster to be optionable.
DC
1:46
WHEN WILL LAD bench ct3 and get someone else, plz
Steve Adams
1:50
Yeah Chris Taylor's four homers notwithstanding, it's been a rough start and the 40% K rate and dwindling contact rate are pretty discouraging. They're not likely to find any takers for that contract, so there's not much to do other than hope for some positives to emerge. It doesn't help that Miguel Rojas has been inexplicably terrible at the dish... I've long said that Rojas' glove alone makes him playable at SS regardless of his bat, but holy crap is he putting that to the test in 2023 so far.
On the plus side, Rojas has a .160 BABIP and actually has better quality of contact than in 2022, so hopefully there's some positive regression coming for him soon
Aidan
1:51
Twins for AL central?
Steve Adams
1:51
They were my preseason pick, and they've made me feel good about it so far
1:52
Who's winning the AL Central?
Twins (44.6% | 87 votes)
 
Guardians (44.6% | 87 votes)
 
White Sox (4.1% | 8 votes)
 
Tigers (4.1% | 8 votes)
 
Royals (2.6% | 5 votes)
 
Total Votes: 195
The Purist
1:52
Almost every rule change this year is to promote offense. With that said, why in the freaking hell do we still have that ghost runner rule starting in the 10th!?!?!?! Someone is bound to outscore the other within a couple extra innings.
Steve Adams
1:54
I hate that rule but have gotten the sense that Manfred's been hell-bent on keeping it since it was implemented. Owners probably like it -- avoid the marathon games that put players at injury risk or force hasty roster moves to alleviate overtaxed bullpens. Lower cost of operation if the average game is shorter. Etc.

It seems counterintuitive if the whole point was to reduce game time, since now the games are like 30+ mins shorter with the pitch clock, but here we are. Not really surprised.
Vin
1:55
The removal of the shift has to impact BABIP significantly.   Could you give a quick thought as to how?
Steve Adams
1:56
League-wide BABIP In 2022 was .290. This year it's .299. It's early, but not sure that's as "significant" as many would've anticipated.
John
1:56
Do you buy the Orioles as a top 5 offense? Will they make significant moves this summer to bolster the rotation? John Angelos scares me
Steve Adams
2:00
Above-average, yes. Top-five, no. Adley is amazing, and they have some good hitters in Mullins, Mountcastle, Hays, Henderson, etc. -- but they're getting plenty of good fortune. Mountcastle's OBP is going to be a negative, barring changes to his approach, and I'm not sure he can keep hitting a quarter of his fly-balls for homers.

Mateo and Hays have BABIPs near or north of .400. Urias isn't far behind.

I'm not saying it's all smoke and mirrors or anything, I just think are five teams with more true talent in the lineup. But there's more help on the way too. Westburg, Norby, Ortiz, Stowers, etc. It's a fun and exciting group.
jj
2:01
What's the league-wide BABIP on ground balls?
Steve Adams
2:02
.242 on grounders in 2023 compared to .235 in 2022
So again, it's up, but it's not like we're talking 20, 30, 40 point swings.
Iowa Padre Fan
2:03
Should we be worried about Juan Soto's (painfully) slow start?
Steve Adams
2:05
I'm not. He's chasing a bit more than in the past, and his contact rate on pitches off the plate is down, which has led to an increased strikeout rate. But he's still lower than league average, he's still drawing tons of walks, he's still hitting the ball hard consistently and barreling it regularly.

I know it kind of stretches back to last year, but he's such a freakishly good hitter that I expect him to right the ship before too long.
Chris
2:06
How about CT for Hicks and IKF?
Steve Adams
2:09
Ha, I actually thought about speculating on something like this when mentioning Taylor before since the money is reasonably close, but not really sure what LA does with Hicks  when they already have five pure OFs on the roster (Betts, Outman, Peralta, Thompson, Heyward). Maybe if they get to a point where they're going to cut Peralta anyway, but I still don't see it and I like Taylor's chances of rebounding better than Hicks anyhow.

But hey, if you want something where the money at least sort of lines up, you've found that.
Chip
2:09
Pineda for Jesus Montero was pretty close to a top 10 trade.
Steve Adams
2:11
This is calling back to my prior question on whether the Cards/O's would do a Jordan Walker/Grayson Rodriguez trade.

Pineda pitched a full season and threw 171 innings with the Mariners before that deal. There were also two others (Vicente Campos and Hector Noesi) involved. I wouldn't call that the same as swapping out GrayRod and Walker when they're both 2-3 weeks into their MLB career.

But yeah, it's one of the closer examples we have since trades of that nature don't really exist.
Also Pineda/Montero was 12 years  ago now! Wild.
Bailey Ober
2:11
What is my surest path back to the majors? Is it with another team at this point?
Steve Adams
2:12
With the Twins when someone gets injured. He'll probably still pitch 60+ innings for Minnesota this season if he stays healthy, and the Twins have multiple rotation members set for free agency at season's end (Gray, Maeda, Mahle). That opens the door for Ober in 2024, assuming he throws well.
2:13
He'd probably have been their first choice to spot start in Maeda's place but it just worked out that Varland and Maeda were synced up. Ober had started a day or two prior.
Bucco71
2:13
Pirates start smoke and mirrors or signs of life?
Steve Adams
2:14
They're a middle-of-the-pack term in terms of both run prevention and run production so far. I
Whoops
2:15
I've written in the past that I'm a fan of Keller since he incorporated the sinker, and I think there's some small-sample intrigue in Johan Oviedo with the increased curveball usage and a big jump in swinging-strike rate
2:17
I like Suwinski as a light breakout guy this year (just becoming a solid regular, not like a superstar), and Hayes is a better hitter than he's shown. There's regression in store for Cutch, Reynolds, Joe and others.

So... yeah, there's some reason to be excited, but they haven't had the most daunting schedule yet and they're only on a +6 run differential even after blowing out a bad Rockies team last night.
Small Sample
2:17
What prediction have you made before the season that changed based on a "small sample."
Steve Adams
2:19
Generally things that involve more of an active demonstration in skill change. A pitcher upping his velo by 3 mph or posting huge K% and swinging-strike marks on the strength of a new pitch. I was immediately hooked by Andrew Heaney's new slider-heavy approach with the Dodgers last year and think it sucks he didn't stay healthy there.

I'm pretty intrigued right now that the Giants somehow have Sean Manaea throwing 95 mph somehow
Guest
2:19
Pablo Lopez deal. Good for Twins or not?
Steve Adams
2:21
Like it for the Twins. They get his age-29 through age-31 seasons at about the same rate the market just paid up for Chris Bassitt's age-34 through age-36, and Lopez's new sweeper and a 2 mph jump in velocity is exactly the type of early-season things that piques my interest more than someone sporting a .460 BABIP over a two- or three-week sample.
Dale
2:22
I feel like the Cubs have found a gem in Nico Hoerner. The bat to ball skills look elite, and I believe there is some power to be found, not to mention the stellar defense and the stolen bases.
Steve Adams
2:25
Really good player. I'm not too bullish on the power outlook since the swing is more geared toward line drives and grounders; he doesn't elevate the ball much and doesn't make tons of hard contact, but the bat-to-ball skills, speed and defense all make him a pretty slam-dunk regular at 2B for them who can slide over to SS anytime they need.
2:26
To the power point, Hoerner's fly-ball rate ranks 103rd of 126 qualified hitters dating back to 2022. Maybe it's in there somewhere, but even if he has the raw power, it'll require some change in approach, and that might impact the contact skills.

But like I said, he's a good player even if he's hitting 8-12 homers per season, so that's fine.
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