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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 5/20/25
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Steve Adams
8:57
Good morning! We'll get going at 1pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions in advance, as always.
12:16
Update: I've got to go pick up my 19-month-old from daycare; he's not feeling well. Plan is to bring him home, set him down for a nap and run the chat as planned, but I might get started a few minutes after 1:00, depending on how that all goes. Sorry for any delays, but just want a heads up out there in case it's 1:05 and people are wondering "Um... is this happening?"
12:59
Thanks to everyone who sent some kind words there -- appreciate that. We can get underway on time though. Let's begin!
1:00
Or we can begin NOW. Ha. Realized I forgot to do a new post highlighting the chat
My Name is Judge
1:01
I mean, I don't think he will do it, but about a third into the season and Judge is still hitting over .400. At this point, would it surprise you if he was the first to do it since Teddy?
Steve Adams
1:02
No, Judge is awesome but I don't think even he can keep seeing nearly 50% of his non-HR batted balls drop in for hits. The authority with which he hits the ball obviously renders them more difficult to field than your standard batted ball, but that's just too much. I don't think we'll ever see someone hit .400 again, barring some kind of aggressive rule changes. Pitchers and defenses are just too good.
David
1:02
For PCA, would 10 years/$150 million work for both sides?
Steve Adams
1:04
I don't think so. Crow-Armstrong will finish the season with one-plus years of service -- nearly two full years (he'll be two days shy). He's going to be a slam-dunk Super 2 player, putting him arb-eligible four times instead of three. You could easily budget more than $50MM for those four arb seasons alone. Add in the one pre-arb year and you're looking at something like $95-100MM for five free agent seasons. I don't think $19-20MM per FA year gets it done, personally.

Maybe his camp feels differently, but $75MMish reportedly didn't get it done this spring, and his stock is up exponentially since then.
Spud
1:05
The Brewers clearly blew the offseason by not addressing the loss of Willy Adames. Now both Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz are slumping badly, due in part to a lack of a plan B. Why won't the Brewers claim a Garrett Hampson or Nicky Lopez to take some pressure off these kids?
Steve Adams
1:07
I don't know that they "blew it" by not replacing Adames. I think it was reasonable to expect one of Turang/Ortiz to fill that shortstop role. They should've added an infielder of SOME note, of course, but ownership gave them nothing to work with. From what I could gather back at the Winter Meetings in December, they basically entered the offseason over budget before making a single move -- hence waiving Colin Rea, doing a cash-neutral swap of Devin Williams, etc.

There were perhaps ways they could've added an infield prospect, though they did do that with Durbin -- he just hasn't hit as well as hoped.

I don't think Hampson or Lopez is really an upgrade, but they could sign either as depth, sure.
Blackbeard
1:08
Is it possible for Skenes to te a Super Two this year? How would that effect the Pirates?
s45d64
1:08
Would it make sense for the Pirates to trade Paul Skenes for a boatload of prospects and start over again? Asking for a friend.
Steve Adams
1:10
Skenes earned a full year of service in 2024 for winning ROY and will get a full year this season. He won't be a Super Two player. That designation is reserved for players who have the top 22% of service among players with between two and three years of service time. In some ways -- not that this was the original intent... at least I don't think anyway -- it's a consolation for the players whose service time is manipulated by teams holding them down for a few weeks to buy the extra year of service. It's why Pete Crow-Armstrong (using him as an example since we already mentioned him) will be arb-eligible four times rather than three. He entered the year with 170 days of MLB service -- two shy of a full year. If the Cubs had called him up two days sooner in 2023 or 2024, he'd be a free agent after 2029. Instead, it's after 2030.

Skenes got a full year last year and this year. He'll be controlled for six seasons, to PCA's seven.
1:11
As for trading him this summer, I don't think it makes sense. Yes, the Pirates are bad. Yes, they'd get a haul. But I have a hard time believing Ben Cherington is going to be in the GM chair long-term, and if/when they do trade Skenes, the return should be settled on by whoever is helming baseball operations long-term.
To that end............
Guest
1:11
how long of a rope does Cherington get before he’s fired as GM of the Pirates?
Steve Adams
1:14
Darragh and I talked about this at length on this morning's podcast episode (which drops tomorrow) -- perhaps because of your question! (Not sure if it was you who submitted it... we get plenty of Bucs fans wondering about this.)

I have a hard time seeing him last into the upcoming offseason, without some stark turnarounds over the final four months. It's been six years, and the pitching pipeline looks promising, but the offensive pipeline is so bleak. They haven't won more than 76 games in this rebuild.

Bob Nutting is the ultimate reason the Pirates are bad, but this front office hasn't developed talent as well as hoped.

I think Ben Cherington is generally a good baseball ops executive with a strong track record, but he has no margin for error when ownership won't even sign a fourth-tier free agent to a two-year deal.
Big Bob
1:14
Tough decisions had to be made regarding  Barnes and Taylor, but what to do about Muncey
Steve Adams
1:15
Muncy is hitting .250/.373/.456 over his past 85 plate appearances -- about half his season. He had a slow start but was still drawing walks and hitting the ball hard. Now that's translating to results. He's never been in the same boat as Barnes and Taylor, who just looked lost at the plate.

Muncy's still a good hitter, and I expect him to continue hitting.
HhH
1:16
Are u surprised by Minnesota l's winning streak. Would anyone have thought they would win 13 games in a row over say the Dodgers or Phillies?
Steve Adams
1:17
I would imagine they'd have been near the bottom of the list if you'd polled MLB fans on "likeliest team to win 13 straight," haha. They'd have probably ranked low even if you limited it to the 10 worst records in baseball at the time their streak started.

Baseball is wild. And fun.
Moose Skowron
1:17
What's your take on the Soto this year year?
Steve Adams
1:20
The fact that there's a "what's wrong with Soto" narrative when he's been like 30-35% better than average at the plate speaks to A) how great he is and B) how much people love a good small-sample narrative.

We did this with Soto two years ago when he hit like .210 in April as well.

He's Juan Soto. He's awesome. He's drawing tons of walks, making elite contact, etc. Eight days ago his wRC+ was I think 150? 152? He's had 7-8 bad games. It happens to everyone. He'll be fine. The whole Soto thing right now is just ... weird.

Obviously staring down the "home run" (that turned out to be a single, whoops) last night was a bad look. I imagine it won't happen again anytime soon, and it'll be a forgotten footnote right up there with "torpedo bats" a few months from now.
Alex A
1:21
What are my moves with the outfield once Ronald comes back? Who is the odd man out with Kelenic already on the farm?
Steve Adams
1:24
Eli White will lose playing time. I know he had a hot streak earlier, but it was hugely BABIP-driven and he's already coming back to Earth. He's hitting .266 this month but with a .309 OBP and no power. He's a 30-year-old journeyman outfielder who should get a big thank you for helping to weather the storm with Acuna out, but the early production was never going to keep up.

Michael Harris has struggled, obviously, but the ceiling there is infinitely higher than that of White and he has enough track record that he deserves a long runway to try to get right.
O Canada...
1:24
Will Bichette and Bassett be moved by August?
Steve Adams
1:27
I lean no, because GM Ross Atkins is probably fighting for his job this year. If they're close, I expect them to add. I also just think the Jays are better than they've played. They have some obvious regression candidates (Springer, Straw, Heineman) but Andres Gimenez and especially Anthony Santander are better than this.
Pirates
1:27
Is Bubba Chandler being held down for the extra year of control after missing out on it with paul and jared
Steve Adams
1:28
They were clearly comfortable with Jones getting the full year. They broke camp with him last year. I do think Bob Nutting is kicking himself for calling Skenes up in early May and is trying his best to avoid a repeat with Chandler, yes.
Jack Lazorko
1:28
Is Matthew Lugo for real?
Steve Adams
1:29
It's 30 plate appearances, and he's struck out 12 times (40%) with the second-lowest contact rate in MLB (behind, sorry, Kyren Paris) and the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate (min. 30 PAs).

Not buying it, no.
Punished fan
1:29
Cedric Mullins is a ______ in August
Steve Adams
1:30
I doubt I'd have much confidence if I were asked this even a week before the deadline, ha. But we'll try!

I'm giving myself two guesses (and that is all this is): Guardian or Padre.
ChiSox 2032 or bust
1:31
Jonathan Cannon has a higher WAR than every Dodger starter other than Yamamoto and is only 24- it's a high price, but would the Dodgers take the gamble of sending de Paula to the White Sox for him?
Steve Adams
1:33
No, they're not giving up De Paula for Jonathan Cannon. But legitimately listening on someone like Cannon is something I think truly bad teams should do more. He's got five years of club control post-2025, so I get why the White Sox almost certainly won't, but that level of control should open them up to a pretty nice return -- and Cannon looks more like a mid-rotation starter (at best) than a top-end guy. I remember thinking the Nationals should listen on Josiah Gray after his 2023 season since they were still several years out.

(Certainly, you could draw a parallel to this and Skenes, but again, I think it's tougher to listen on Skenes since I think there'll be a GM change at some point and also because Skenes is so much better that he's nearly impossible to get full value for)
Ben
1:34
Am I crazy in thinking the Tigers aren't sustainably this good? I think Mize and Olsen are overperforming and could come back down. Jobe has a FIP over 5.00. Torkelson and Baez can't keep this up, right?
Steve Adams
1:38
No, I don't think it's crazy to say they're not a 105-win team (which is their current pace). I agree that Baez is going to come crashing down. McKinstry and Dingler will regress some as well (among others).

But the Tigers haven't gotten much out of Colt Keith, who I think will continue to get better. You can say yeah, Jackson Jobe's ERA is going to increase (Mize, too) -- but Flaherty is going to get better if he keeps up this K-BB profile. They've also succeeded despite surprisingly rough results from Beau Brieske, who seems too talented to keep struggling this much (assuming he's healthy).

They'll make some additions at the deadline, too. Alex Cobb hasn't thrown a pitch yet.

So... I can buy that they're not a 105-win team as presently constructed, but they're probably a mid-90s win team, which should be good enough, especially with deadline reinforcements coming.
1:39
Also, Tork just looks awesome. I'm in. All the way. Good for that guy.
Guest
1:39
Thoughts on Skip Schumacher as orioles next manager and Thad Levine as new GM
Steve Adams
1:41
Two smart guys with good track records, sure. I don't think Mike Elias is getting booted as GM yet, though. This is really their first poor season since turning the corner in the rebuild. I think he'll get one more winter to show he can assemble a better pitching staff.

Certainly justifiable to feel a change is warranted, but I think he gets another offseason.
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