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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 5/28/24
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Steve Adams
1:43
Ryan Fernandez has looked great for a Rule 5 guy. I don't see any reason to think he won't make it, unless you're just placing a ton of emphasis on the little hiccup he's had over his past four appearances. Looks like a really good pick by the Cards though.
Kyle
1:43
How do you think the Dodgers handle the rotation if Glasnow, Yamamoto, Buehler, Bobby Miller, Kershaw, Dustin May, Paxton, and Stone are all healthy come August/September? Six man and kick Paxton and Stone to long relief?
Steve Adams
1:46
Given the general rate at which pitchers break, I think that's a situation they'll never have to worry about. But, if they somehow hit jackpot and keep all those guys healthy, I'd have May in the 'pen eventually due to injury track record, prior workloads and just wanting to see what his stuff would look like in one-inning stints. And yeah, I'd have Paxton in relief before Stone, though that's assuming they're performing as they currently are. Ideally, you'd see Paxton get his command back on track and start missing bats again before that point.
Marlins
1:46
Best trade partner for luzardo ????
Steve Adams
1:51
Every team's going to want controllable pitching, and Luzardo is as good an arm as you'll find on the market. I don't know that there's one specific team that stands out the most. You could say Orioles, since they have such a deep farm and an abundance of controllable hitting prospects that Miami desperately needs. But the O's have also only really traded from that stock once under Mike Elias' tenure (the Corbin Burnes trade). We'll see if he's willing to get more aggressive this deadline, but he hasn't been an aggressive baseball ops leader at all.

Other teams that make varying degrees of sense: Rays, Brewers, Guardians, Twins, Cardinals, Cubs ... even fringe-y 2024 contenders will have some interest since he's controlled through 2026.
Win Twins!
1:52
With Royce Lewis' return imminent, who loses their 26-Man roster spot? Miranda and Larnach are raking, hard to send them down.  To me Margot makes the most sense to get DFA'd.  Farmer is making too much money. But then there is a crowded IF.  Jeffers has to catch more to open up the DH spot!  Other option I suppose would be Kirilloff or Julien, but I don't think the Twins want to send them down.
Steve Adams
1:55
Margot seems to make the most sense, yeah. Castro and Austin Martin provide some backup in center field behind Buxton. And while I don't think Farmer's contract is a big differentiator in terms of him vs. Margot, Farmer has started to swing the bat better of late, while Margot's struggles have lingered all season. Plus the Twins love Farmer and what he brings in the clubhouse... his having been there a year already and taken on something of a leadership role probably helps over more of a newcomer like Margot.
Alonso
1:55
Many seem focused on Alonso as a trade chip this July. But wouldn't Christian Walker from Arizona be the real gem of 1B gets? Assuming AZ continues to fall out of the race of course.
Steve Adams
1:56
If both were on the market, yeah I think teams would be every bit as interested in Walker -- if not more so. Lesser salary, better glove. Not the big flashy name that Alonso is, and he's several years older, but Christian Walker is so good.
Beff Jagwell
1:57
There’s been a lot of talk about the Astros roster construction (not enough SP depth, *waves hands in direction of Jose Abreu*, etc). I tend to see it as compounding bad luck with injuries and age, but did Dana Brown really screw it up? Is Crane meddling too much?
Steve Adams
2:00
Well, Brown wasn't even in the organization when the Astros signed Abreu and Rafael Montero. Those were when Crane was cosplaying as GM, presumably with heavy input from Bagwell and a few others.

I felt the lack of attention on pitching depth this past offseason was a mistake even at the time, and I certainly wasn't expecting THIS level of regression from J.P. France, even if some was pretty obviously on the horizon. Hunter Brown's struggles early were unexpected (again, at least the extent/magnitude of them).

I would love to go back and be a fly on the wall for the Josh Hader talks -- even just the internal ones. It seemed like a reactive move at the time, especially if it was going to make them gun-shy about taking on any more payroll of note, which seems to be the case.
2:01
So, I don't think Brown screwed things up to the high heavens, per se, but I also didn't much care for Houston's offseason and the manner in which they allocated their apparently limited resources. Some of that's just on Crane, though.
The Fun Kid
2:02
Do the Giants use this showcase of their minor league system with Matos/Ramos/Luciano etc playing well to create trades or did the injury to Lee make them all a little more valuable to this year's team?
Steve Adams
2:06
I don't think any of the young guys you mentioned have radically altered their stock with the early performances. Ramos is K'ing at a 30% clip and has a .410 BABIP. Luciano hasn't even had 30 PAs. Matos has been about league-average with the bat.

Ramos seems the likeliest of the bunch to be moved, to me, just because he was drafted by the prior regime and has a pretty scattershot track record in the minors.

More broadly, given where they are both in the 2024 standings and in relation to the Dodgers, D-backs and Padres in overall outlook, I don't think trading those kids for short-term upgrades is prudent. The Giants are already a veteran-heavy team whose player development system hasn't produced as hoped. Thinning the farm to add more short-term veterans who'll be out the door soon doesn't feel like a good direction.
AL Central Casting
2:07
Has Max Kepler "earned" himself a qualifying offer over the past calendar year (second half of 2023, first half of 2024)?
Steve Adams
2:09
Over the past calendar year, Kepler is hitting .279/.345/.498 with plus RF defense and 22 homers in 508 plate appearances. If he finishes the season out anywhere close to that level of offensive output, it'll be tempting for the Twins, yeah
BhamBrave
2:09
Do the Braves really stick with Kelenic/Harris/Duvall, or do they upgrade at the deadline?
Steve Adams
2:10
I don't think they'll stick with that for the rest of the season but imagine they'll rely primarily on that group for the next month at least.
NL West
2:11
What’s in the water in the NL West?  Seems like an awful lot of bats are quiet this year.  Carroll and Outman are the most concerning as they are / were / are (ha ha) club centerpieces.  Padres and Dodgers continue to make young pitchers look like strike out machines.
Steve Adams
2:14
I don't think it's just the NL West. There are a lot of unexpectedly poor performances this year... Bregman, Arozarena, Gleyber, Yandy Diaz, Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco.

Also wouldn't lump Outman into the same category as Carroll. Outman is a platoon guy who had huge K numbers last year. I'm far more surprised by Carroll's struggles than by Outman. Not that I expected Outman to be this bad -- but if you'd told me before the season he'd struggle to one of the shakiest batting lines in the NL, I'd say "Eh, yeah I can see that." I would not have said the same about Carroll. At all.
chris
2:15
Who is the best player in baseball right now? Betts? It cannot be Ohtani because he does not play the field.
Steve Adams
2:17
I think you can still call Ohtani the most talented while also acknowledging that he won't be the most impactful this year since he's not pitching or playing defense.

Betts is up there, for sure. His offense plus his seamless ability to play wherever he's asked at a reasonably high level is pretty remarkable. Bobby Witt has been something else ... Kyle Tucker. William Contreras probably doesn't get much consideration on that for many people, but he's been incredible. Judge and Soto are in there too.
MrRed
2:18
Call me an optimist but I believe the Reds are still in it. Pitching is good and hitting is coming around. Health will help but I believe they are missing a big home run/RBI guy in the middle of the lineup. Any idea who could fill that role?
Steve Adams
2:22
The Reds are 7 back in the division and 3.5 back from a Wild Card spot. They're 100% still in it. The only teams that really aren't, at this early stage, are the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Angels, etc.

Would be fun to see the Reds push in on Vlad or Bo if the Jays do ultimately move some pieces. Christian Walker, if the D-backs end up selling. Long way before either of those teams makes that call, though. Brent Rooker, J.D. Martinez ... lots of sluggers figure to eventually be out there. (Perhaps sooner than others, in Rooker's case, since the A's aren't even pretending to try to contend this year.)
M’s Fan
2:23
Is Kelenic what he is at this point?
Steve Adams
2:25
I was huge on Kelenic as a prospect but my optimism has all but evaporated. The K's are persisting, and it doesn't seem like the Braves have even a slight inclination to let him try to hit against lefties. I think he can be better against RHP than he's been this season, but yeah if he settles in as even a solid platoon corner bat, that'd have to be considered a win at this point.

He's super talented and a great athlete, so there's always the possibility that he changes his approach/mechanics and makes other tweaks. But everything we've seen so far in the version(s) of Kelenic we've had to date ... it just doesn't live up to expectations or create reason for great optimism moving forward.
2:28
Ok, I've got to wrap up. Thanks for participating, as always!

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Tim has some conflicts this week so I'll be pinch-hitting on tomorrow's mailbag. Keep an eye out for that.

Thanks everyone, and enjoy the rest of your week! I'm on Twitter / X @Adams_Steve for more questions whenever you like. Take care.
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