JotCast | Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 5/9/19

Steve Adams

3:23

Ahoy, chatters. (That was a weirdly nautical intro.)

I'm chatting in Jeff's spot today since he was kind enough to do so in my place earlier this week when I was severely under the weather and the thought of functioning at any level was excruciating. So you get me on a Thursday! Hooray?

Theo

3:23

So, I am definitely in the market for a lights out closer, right? Should I call Kimbrel?

Steve Adams

3:23

The Cubs aren't going to spend any significant money.

3:24

I say it frequently, but it bears repeating since it's still asked so much. They will not. It's been like 3 months since their owner publicly said he didn't have any more money to spend. Laughable or not, it appears their budget it set, and they've hit it.

Billy Pilgrim

3:24

Should the Tigers trade Boyd? What would be a fair package?

Steve Adams

3:26

I don't think they should just trade him for the best offer, but they're silly not to listen to offers. I'm pretty high on Boyd, and he's controllable for three years, so it'd need to be a pretty overwhelming package. If he's still continuing at this pace come July, we're talking multiple Top 100 prospects headlined by a Top 50 or Top 25 type of guy. That sounds laughable given Boyd's track record and is still a reach even right now, because he's got to do it for more than 8 starts, but I'm definitely buying his improvement as legitimate right now, and you pay for what he'll do moving forward more than what he's done in the past.

3:27

I'd imagine even my co-workers would call that bullish -- but I guess I'm the Matthew Boyd guy here. So be it. I'm in.

Jon

3:27

Where do you thing Gerrit Cole and Madison Bumgarner end up next year?

Steve Adams

3:30

We make our free-agent predictions at the outset of every offseason and even though we spend hours agonizing over who could go where, it's a good winter if I bat like .150, haha. There's no good way of knowing where a given free agent will land this coming offseason -- let alone where two will land. Teams I expect to be in on high-end pitching, though:

Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Cubs, Phillies, Astros, Angels, Twins, Yankees, Red Sox, Maybe the White Sox, Rangers or Giants.

Colossus of Trout

3:31

5/$70m for a Simba extension?

Steve Adams

3:33

I know everyone's scared of free agency now and Andrelton's contract concludes with his age-30 season, but I still think that pretty handily undercuts his value. He should be able to get more than $70MM on a four-year deal from where I sit.

Doug

3:33

What do you make of the pine tar incident last night with Kikuchi?

Steve Adams

3:33

Every pitcher uses pine tar or sunscreen or whatever his preferred substance is, and Kikuchi probably should just be less blatant about it in the future.

It's a non-issue

TX-lifer

3:34

Loving the Texas offense this year. Waiting on young pitching is frustrating though, should we trade Minor for younger talent?

Steve Adams

3:35

As with the Tigers/Boyd, it'd be foolish not to listen. There won't be many arms available that are controlled beyond 2019. Doesn't mean they should just take the best that's offered though.

And I have to poke a little fun at you for the notion of, "Waiting on young pitching is frustrating! Should we trade Mike Minor for more young pitching?" :)

Joe

3:35

If the White Sox sign a high-end pitcher, i'll eat my shorts. Last time they even thought about high end pitchers they traded Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres...

Steve Adams

3:37

I said I expect them to be in the market for it -- I don't really think they'd win the bidding. It's a tough sell to tell a pitcher "Hey we've been bad for a long time, but we're trying to get better and by the way we play our home games at Guaranteed Rate Field where a quarter of fly-balls hit achieve their dream of becoming dingers."

As for Tatis, it's a fair gripe in hindsight, but the dude has wildly elevated his stock since the Shields thing. They shouldn't have been acquiring Shields in the first place, but it's not like everyone expected FTJ to become this when that deal happened.

Yan

3:38

Do the Twins have enough talent in their farm system to get an elite starting pitcher by trade?

Steve Adams

3:40

Most teams have enough to land one of the better starters that'll be available this summer, though it's not really clear that there will be any true "ace" on the market. MadBum looks more encouraging than he did in 2017-18, I suppose.

Anyhow -- yeah, the Twins have plenty; they're regarded as having one of the game's top 10 or so minor league systems.

Mac

3:40

Most disappointing team in baseball so far is?

Steve Adams

3:41

Seems like a reasonable poll. I'll just include teams that entered the season trying to contend. If you were hoping the Marlins would only be like 9 games under .500 instead of 16, not sure that counts haha.

3:42

Most disappointing team so far in 2019?

Nationals (37% | 192 votes)

Mets (5.4% | 28 votes)

Braves (7.7% | 40 votes)

Reds (3.7% | 19 votes)

Rockies (3.3% | 17 votes)

Angels (5% | 26 votes)

Athletics (2.7% | 14 votes)

Red Sox (25.8% | 134 votes)

Indians (7.1% | 37 votes)

Other (2.3% | 12 votes)

Total Votes: 519

3:43

I didn't list the Yankees because they're still 5 over .500, but feel free to "Other" them if you wish and yell at me with your comments!

Blah

3:44

I saw this in the comments on the Posey to IL post. Posey going to the Hall of fame?

Steve Adams

3:44

I haven't looked at them, but he has a pretty strong chance especially considering he still has some years to tack on some counting stats. He's worth more than 50 fWAR already I believe.

3:45

Hi bud. give me a reason to not be skeptical of German

Steve Adams

3:48

Assuming that's Domingo German, I don't think that he's a dramatically better pitcher than he was last year, but I think he's also way better than his 2018 ERA would indicate. Legit ability to miss bats, plenty of velocity... he seems like a perfectly plausible upper-3.00s or low-4.00s ERA type of guy to me. Fly-ball guy who throws more 4-seamers than sinkers/two-seamers/cutters while playing his home games in a bandbox, so he'll probably always be kind of homer-prone, but there's plenty to like there.

Dwight

3:48

Question: what kind of bear is best?

Steve Adams

3:48

WELL THAT'S DEBATABLE.

3:48

How is Posey capable of making the HOF and Jorge Posada wasn’t? Don’t you think the HOF voting is just politics now?

Steve Adams

3:49

Posey is a better hitter and defender than Posada was.

They have basically the same career rate stats, to this point, and Posey plays his home games at AT&T/Oracle -- not Yankee Stadium.

MN Twins

3:50

How about those twins!!!!

Steve Adams

3:50

As everyone expected, the Twins have the best record in MLB on May 9.

Baseball needs some variety man.

3:51

For real, though, the offense is deep -- there's some regression coming as with any scorching hot team, but they also haven't had Sano and have gotten nothing from Marwin -- but I do think they'll need to add some help to that bullpen to legitimize things.

3:52

I'd be curious to see Pineda either flipped to a once-through-the-order opener or a multi-inning reliever late in games. He's torn through opponents his first time through the lineup but gotten obliterated the second and third.

Maybe that's to be expected as he regains strength post-TJ, but it's an interesting thought.

Lou4hof184

3:52

Is sabathia really really a hofer?

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