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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 6/18/24
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Steve Adams
1:46
Ward should net that type of prospect, yes. And if Anderson is packaged with someone more interesting (Ward, Rengifo, Estevez, Sandoval, etc.) then maybe ... but he alone does not strike me as someone brimming with value. We're less than a year removed from him going unclaimed on waivers last August.
CBeisbol
1:46
A smooth delivery =/= stuff
Steve Adams
1:46
This is true
liberty1
1:46
Edmund Sosa trade chip for Phils?
Steve Adams
1:48
I think they'll just be happy to have him and keep him around. He's a nice utility player who can handle basically any spot on the field and is hitting at a high level with some surprising legitimacy. He's not THIS good, but he's been a genuinely more impressive hitter than I'd have called reasonable heading into the season
Garrett Whitlock's IL status
1:48
Have we reached a point where it's safe to assume that ANY contract with a starter for, say, 3 years or longer will include at least one 'lost' year?
Steve Adams
1:49
Depends on age, prior health, etc. Whitlock was always a bigger risk since he already had the one Tommy John procedure in his back pocket. Broadly speaking though, yeah I'm of the mind that all pitchers break at some point. I don't know that I'd say "Oh I firmly expect it in all 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-year etc. contracts," but I wouldn't call you crazy if you looked at them that way either.
Franco
1:50
How come nobody in the media will continue to investigate the Ohtani gambling story? His alibi sounds phony.
Steve Adams
1:51
Because there was already a federal investigation into the matter that produced a publicly available 37-page document detailing the findings?
1:53
I get questions like this every week, which just smack of "I didn't like the outcome because I wanted him to be guilty so someone else find something different for me."

We live in the age of social media conspiracy. I'm sure if you want a good Ohtani conspiracy, there's no shortage of them online that will align with the confirmation bias you're looking for.

And to be clear, this is coming from someone who said on the MLBTR Podcast that I was initially skeptical of the whole thing but have since read the evidence against Mizuhara and thought, "Huh... well that seems pretty comprehensive."
Jim
1:54
How do you see picks 1 through 4 going in the MLB draft?
Steve Adams
1:55
Not my area of specialization, and frankly, the teams picking 1-4 don't even know how they'll go yet. I'm not going to pretend to be a draft expert when it's just not an area I'm paid to focus on. But the teams at Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, etc. do great work on mock drafts and draft scenarios and I recommend checking them out.
Joe
1:56
What are the odds neither Alonso nor Robert is traded by the deadline?
Steve Adams
1:57
I don't think either is close to a lock. The White Sox have three more years of Robert. They could easily hold until the offseason, next deadline, NEXT offseason, etc.

Alonso is much likelier but is still something of a coinflip right now. And the Mets aren't going to make any decisions until much closer to July 30, especially with their recent winning streak.
Charlie
1:57
Who will be the biggest name traded at the deadline?
Steve Adams
1:57
Jesus Luzardo?
Guardo Man
1:57
can the guardians stay afloat in the AL with their weak pitching staff?? It’s been rough
Steve Adams
1:59
If I thought they were going to stand pat I'd say no, but you can't take away the wins they've banked. I think they've outperformed the talent on the current roster, but that doesn't matter, because now they're just in position to make a trade to legitimize the pitching staff (and perhaps the lineup) and keep themselves afloat.
Tigers fan
1:59
With Flaherty coming back from his back injury looking just as sharp as before. What is a realistic return for Flaherty given how good he has been this season
Steve Adams
2:00
Pretty common for high-end rental arms to command one premium prospect (50 FV type/back-half of a top-100 type) and then another decent prospect or two (40 to 45 FV, middle tiers of the acquiring org's system)
Norfolk Tides
2:01
Should the Os trade the farm and if so who do you think is actually on the radar?
Steve Adams
2:02
I think they should move someone from the Kjerstad/Norby/Povich bucket and try to pull a controllable mid-rotation SP (Luzardo, Sandoval) and/or a leverage reliever yeah. They have Corbin Burnes for one year. Get aggressive.
Jim
2:02
All you’ve done is answer questions about Flaherty, Alonso and Robert… just repeating yourself over and over. There’s other teams in there that you are skipping over
Steve Adams
2:03
I'm sorry I've forced you to be here and listen to me answer questions on the subjects that are overwhelmingly dominating the queue!
Guest
2:03
Oy vey do the Cubs look lost.  This roster feels like the culmination of a front office that prioritizes value over what they perceive as overpaying for top-shelf talent, and their hubris on the ability to piecemeal a bullpen is on full display.  Even with a top-tier farm system by volume, the help that's on the way feels like a lot of 'good' mlb regulars and no stars that will help transform this team.  Us fans are tired of chalking all this up to injuries, bad luck with observed vs expected results of hitters, 'we really tried to get superstars', and look at the state of the Mets'
Steve Adams
2:04
The Cubs' habitual insistence on patching together a bullpen with a series of minor league deals, one-year pickups, waiver claims, etc. is really strange. It feels like Ricketts is just still livid about the manner in which the Kimbrel deal blew up and has sworn he'll never make that mistake again.
Jays @43 MLB parka
2:04
I think the Jays should extend Jansen. Would 4 yrs at $8mil get it done?
Steve Adams
2:05
Nope. I could see four years for Jansen, but it'd be more at a $15-20MM per year rate for me. You're giving him Christian Vazquez money in your scenario, and he's just way, way better than that.
gavin
2:05
Padres should trade Kim for prospect then spin them for Crochet.   thoughts?
Steve Adams
2:06
I don't think they need to do the first half of your scenario to accomplish the second. And if you're going to trade long-term value for Crochet, then I don't see the sense in undercutting the strength of your current roster to facilitate it. If you want Crochet, make an offer that'll get him and don't feel the need to weaken the current product first. They have plenty of minor league talent to pique Chicago's interest as it is.
Shaker Moseby
2:06
Now that Varsho is crushing both Moreno and Gurriel combined in player value this season, is it fair to no longer call it a massive fleece by the Diamondbacks of the Jays?  Or maybe, just maybe, we shouldn't be judging a trade after one season?   Or even two seasons for that matter?
Steve Adams
2:10
The hate on the Varsho trade was always silly to me. You acquired four years of the guy. Judging it after a couple months is rash. But that's how things go with every trade, as you alluded to.

It's why you'll never see me do something like "TRADE GRADES" the day/week/month after the deadline. It's nonsense. Yes, it gets eyes, but it's not cogent analysis that's going to hold up in the long run.

I think it's totally fair to say, "I think team X overpaid for this player and here's why I wouldn't have done this trade," or something to that effect, but you need a nuanced look that leaves open the possibility that it swings the other direction. I remember loving the Twins' acquisition of Jorge Lopez because it cost them one good pitching prospect (Cade Povich) and a bunch of throw-ins. Pitching prospects always break, right?!

Except one of those throw-ins was Yennier Cano and his 18% walk rate that the Orioles turned around. And Povich hasn't broken yet. And Lopez crumbled the following season.
So sure, it's natural to have opinions on trades right after they happen, but to definitively grade them with letters or to skewer a front office for acquiring 4-5 years of a guy after a few months will often end up looking short-sighted.
Chris
2:11
Can the SF Giants actually make a run at trading for Mike Trout? Heard them discussing on KNBR radio as a move fans would like to see. Fans are salivating to see some sort of offensive superstar that they’ve been lacking since Bonds. Might be too steep of an asking price for Mr. Zaidi. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
2:13
Trout has said publicly that he wants to stay in Anaheim. Angels GM Perry Minasian has said he has no interest in trading Trout.

The Giants can try, and I'm sure it's indeed a trade many fans might like to see, but we have nothing to suggest it's actually feasible, no.
RedsFan44
2:13
What should the Reds do at the deadline?
Steve Adams
2:15
It's boring to say, but I don't think that's a question we can/should answer on June 18. Their play over the next month is going to dictate this. Same for the Giants, Cardinals, Padres, Cubs, D-backs, Mets, etc.

The NL Wild Card chase is stacked.  If the Reds could find a bat they can control for multiple years right now and boost their lineup to help that next month look better, then go for it, but there's just not a huge supply of readily available names, and shrugging to say "Well whatever we'll just take Gavin Sheets right now" when someone better might be on the market in four weeks' time is a tough sell for any front office.
2:18
Ok, I've got to wrap up. Thanks for participating, as always!

If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn more about the Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you'll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes (I'm actually pinch-hitting for him this week), weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, a weekly subscriber-only chat with Anthony (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to the MLBTR Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. It starts at $2.99/month.

I'll have a piece coming out later today about Patrick Sandoval and the weird disconnect between trade chatter surrounding him versus trade chatter surrounding Jesus Luzardo, despite the two being extremely contractually and statistically similar.
Thanks everyone and enjoy the rest of your week!
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