Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 6/2/26
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Steve Adams
1:52
Good afternoon! I'll get going at the top of the hour, but feel free to start sending in questions ahead of time.
2:00
Let's get underway!
o-birds
2:00
Will the Orioles be able to sign Gunnar before he becomes a free agent, knowing Boras is a players agent why do teams draft them knowing they will be difficult to sign when they become free agents? Thank you Steve 😊
Steve Adams
2:02
I don't see any real chance of a Henderson extension.

Avoiding an agent in the draft seems pointless though. Very few players, regardless of representation, sign team-friendly extensions -- relatively speaking, anyhow. And there are plenty of Boras guys who've signed long-term deals. The narrative is a bit overstated. Cooper Pratt just signed an eight-year deal before he even reached the majors, and he's a Boras guy.

You get the player for six-plus years regardless.
Dodgers101
2:02
Will skubal be sealed at the deadline?
Steve Adams
2:04
Assuming that's "traded" -- the short, boring and most accurate answer is: "Maybe?"

If the Tigers are 10+ games back, then yeah, I imagine he'll be moved. They'll get a big return in a trade that eclipses the draft pick they'd net upon him rejecting a QO and signing elsewhere.

But today's brand of front office almost universally waits until the eleventh hour to make even minor decisions. The Tigers aren't going to punt on the season in early June. Unless they're still just absolutely buried in the standings, I doubt they'll make a final call on Skubal any sooner than 72-ish hours before the deadline. If they have a glimmer of hope, they're going to wait until the last possible second.
Angels GM
2:04
Who says no? Jo Adell to the Guards for  Genao, Ingle and Stephan?
Steve Adams
2:05
Vastly overestimating the trade value Adell has here. He wouldn't fetch a prospect of either Genao or Ingle's caliber in a one-for-one swap, let alone that kind of package.
Meow
2:05
For a long time now, FIP has been the go-to start for an at-a-glance assessment about sustainability of pitching results. As we know, it does this by ignoring results where the batter put the ball in play. While the general correlation to future ERA is undeniable, I've always thought FIP failed to capture the relative talents of contact-oriented pitching. Now that Statcast has been collecting more detailed swing data, do you think we should expect to see better/more comprehensive "fielding independent" pitching stats coming along?
Steve Adams
2:07
I've like SIERA over FIP for ... well, ever. FIP doesn't normalize homer-to-flyball rate, despite the fact that HR/FB year after year tends to stabilize around 12%. SIERA (and xFIP) do account for that. I feel they're far better metrics.

There are plenty of other ERA estimators/alternatives already out there. xERA (Statcast), DRA, DRA- ... FIP is more useful than ERA, but it's got its own flaws
Crafty Lefty
2:07
Now that the new CBA negotiations are "joined" can you see a settlement that includes some sort of cap, but materially improves the salary structure for younger players?
Steve Adams
2:08
I don't think the union will ever consent to a cap, and I think they'd be more willing to lose games than ownership would if it came down to it.
I also wouldn't call either of the initial proposals any kind of beginning to negotiations
2:09
They were PR stunts. Both wildly unrealistic and total nonstarters for the other party. I don't even understand the point in putting those out there. It's nonsense -- entirely for show.
Bucs Fan
2:09
Hi. Do you think Mlodzinski lost any respect from his teammates after his reaction to being sent to the bullpen?
Black and Gold
2:09
Has Cartmen Mlodzinski damaged his trade value by his perceived attitude problem?
Steve Adams
2:12
Obviously can't speak to how he's perceived among his teammates with any real firsthand knowledge, as they'll keep that behind closed doors, but just logically speaking, how could he not have pissed off some guys in the clubhouse? He hung the team out to dry, forced them to call up Cam Sanders and then send him back down ... his fourth option of the year. They can only option him one more time now.

I get it, he wants to start, but good clubhouses have everyone rowing in the same direction, and that sure doesn't feel like something that's happening here.

As for his trade value, I don't know that it was sky-high to begin with. He's a back-end, five-inning starter whose numbers the second and especially third time through the order are glaring.
2:13
I can still imagine some clubs being less interested, though. If you trade for the guy and he struggles for his first 5-6 starts, what do you do? Put him in the bullpen and hope he doesn't make a big deal of it this time? It's just a bad look.
MarkTrain
2:13
DeGrom a Hall of Famer?
Steve Adams
2:14
He should be, especially considering he has a few years left. Though frankly, if he retired today and got voted in, I'd say that's fine. But I'm a bigger hall guy than most. I also neither have nor want a Hall of Fame vote (or any vote), so my opinion doesn't matter much haha
Josh
2:15
Think Buxton will waive his no-trade at the deadline for a team like the Braves?
Steve Adams
2:18
I lean no. He was pretty adamant last year about staying in MN. Obviously he backed down on that stance a slight bit after the fire sale and with all the ownership tumult, but the Twins have (somehow) been moderately competitive. Lot of interesting young pitching, lots of high-end prospects near the majors.

Maybe if the front office/ownership tells him "Hey we're going to drag this rebuild out a few years," he'd concede, but I don't know that that's even necessary. They have some interesting young arms already with several top-100 type bats in AAA (Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Emmanuel Rodriguez). They're not all healthy, but they're close, and the system will only get better if they trade Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, and a few other shorter-term pieces. No money on the books next year, so even if they're going to reside in this $110MM payroll range, they could still sign some meaningful free agents.
Spider
2:18
Whatvdo you think the phillies can get for nola
Steve Adams
2:19
No one is taking that contract with the way he's pitched since 2025.
JD
2:19
If the Astros trade Yordan, would they be able to get more than the Nats received for Soto?
Steve Adams
2:21
I think it'd be comparable, perhaps a bit less. Same amount of club control. Alvarez has more cost certainty because of the contract, but he's older with some injuries of note on the track record. Soto wasn't a particularly great OF at the time of the deal, but he was at least an everyday OF. Alvarez is more part-time out there.

The trade package would have to be absurd, though.
Brian
2:21
3 years 60 mil look about right for Randy Arozarena's next contract? Do the Ms sign that contract?
Steve Adams
2:22
I'd probably take the slight over, but three years at $20-25MM seems reasonable, depending how he finishes.
Cap
2:22
What will cap be at with new contract? I'm thinking around 295 but floor will be hard for many teams to reach at 177.
Steve Adams
2:22
I don't think there will be one.
Ebenezer_Batflip
2:23
Randy is gonna be one of the best hitters in free agency, i think he can do better than 3/60
Steve Adams
2:24
He's a 32-year-old (well, he will be) corner-only outfielder. Teams don't really up their bids on players and overpay because the market has few options anymore. They just work the trade market or spend to reinforce other areas of strength.

A quick look in our Contract Tracker shows that the only outfielder age 32 or older to sign for more than three years in the past half decade is Starling Marte (4/78 with the Mets)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/contracttracker?name=&team=0&position=O...
2:25
I guess you've got Schwarber at 5/150, but he's a complete outlier and doesn't impact Arozarena at all in my mind.
Zach
2:26
Who's the NL Cy Young if the season ended today?
Steve Adams
2:26
Flip a coin? Haha
2:27
I'd probably go Cristopher Sanchez, just because he has eight more innings. It's that close. But I like Miz's chances of continuing to dominate at absurd levels a bit more than Sanchez's, so Miz would be my pick now to win at season's end.
My preseason Yamamoto pick does not feel like it's going to hold up, ha
Cash
2:28
How much cash is typically involved when players are traded for cash?
Steve Adams
2:29
It varies. Can be as low as a dollar or could be $50K+ ... it's never a very significant amount. Teams aren't buying guys who were DFA for $2.5MM or anything.
Guest
2:29
What is going on with Framber Valdez? Is the pressure of Detroit getting to him? complacency of being the #2? His walk rate and HR rate have been outrageous and his groundball rate has seemingly decreased.
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