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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 6/4/24
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Chase
1:38
Which good team are you most worried falling off?
Steve Adams
1:41
I don't think the Guardians can keep hitting like Barry Bonds as a collective unit with RISP. The Royals are pulling a similar, but lesser act and only have 3-4 quality hitters in that lineup.

In the NL, I just worry about Milwaukee's pitching depth, but man do they have a knack for maximizing pitcher performance. It's impressive, but with Gasser ailing now too, it's hard not to wonder how long they can keep it up.

The Phillies aren't going to win 70% of their games this season, but they're really good and I don't expect them to fall off a cliff or anything.
DavidCNYC
1:41
Time to reassess some of Bloom’s trades? Abreu and Valdéz for Christian Vazquez is looking really good.
Steve Adams
1:45
Sure. It's kind of silly to look at virtually any trade right after it happens and grade it. I'm never going to write a "trade grade" type of piece right after the deadline. It's pointless. The Vazquez trade looks great for Boston. Ditto getting Pivetta for Workman/Hembree. Not sure you can ever shake off the sting of that Betts swap, and the 2022 deadline where they chose not to trade away Hill, JDM, etc. and wound up barely over the luxury tax, thus dropping their compensation for Xander and Eovaldi to post-fourth round selections was brutal.
Brent
1:45
Does John Means have to settle for a minor league deal next season?
Steve Adams
1:47
I could see a cheap two-year deal ($5-8MM total) where he's being paid to rehab in '25 and pitch in '26. We've seen those two-year deals for post-TJ guys climb as high as the low $20MMs. Tyler Mahle got 2/22 this offseason. But Means' surgery is coming in June and it's his second TJS, so I think you'd have to pretty heavily discount the guarantee -- especially since he really has barely pitched at all since 2021.
Brent
1:48
Would trading Austin Hays or Cedric Mullins and Sam Basallo be enough to get Luzardo?
Steve Adams
1:48
Basallo as a centerpiece in a Luzardo deal makes plenty of sense. I doubt the Orioles are going to want struggling veterans with notable salaries who are free agents after the 2025 season, though. Hays/Mullins won't be the types of players they have interest in acquiring.
I think you meant Marlins
1:50
Orioles have those struggling vets.
Steve Adams
1:50
Ha, yes
Shane
1:50
Would you be surprised if the Mets trade Manaea, Severino and Quintana by the deadline?
Steve Adams
1:52
Severino and Q, no. Manaea is tougher to trade because he has the opt-out/player option. It's a poison pill for most teams. If the guy pitches well down the stretch, he opts out. But if he gets hurt, he'll likely opt in and leave you stuck with an injured pitcher you don't want on a notable salary. That downside makes it hard to give up anything of real note and is a complete turnoff for some teams seeking rotation help.
Dylan Carlson
1:52
I want a reset on my career. Where will I end up so that I can finally show my potential?
Steve Adams
1:55
Yeah, it'd be nice to see a team just give Carlson a fresh start and a change of scenery. Royals have nothing in the outfield but might want a more firm upgrade since they're in the playoff hunt right now. Rockies, A's, White Sox all make sense as a team that could acquire Carlson and just let him get regular ABs to see what it brings. The trade value is shot at this point, but someone would surely still have interest in giving him a shot in a low-cost swap. The general way this Cardinals front office handles its outfielders is perplexing at large.
Sterling Archer
1:55
Madrigal & Mervis (and a lotto ticket arm) for Detmers in a full on “change of scenery” trade for all parties, who says no?
Steve Adams
1:55
Even after Detmers was sent down, that package isn't getting him for me.
Tucupita
1:56
Was my mistake not hiring a good interpreter?
Steve Adams
1:56
I think your mistake was betting on Major League games, including those being played by your own team, when it's been expressly laid out that such activity is impermissible.
2:00
Big day for the Ohtani conspiracy crowd though, so I'll reiterate as I did last month ... I was openly skeptical of the entire situation at first. But rather than lob around a bunch of "this doesn't make sense" rhetoric, I went and read the entire 37-page court briefing on his case and found it pretty hard to conclude that Mizuhara isn't the guy here. I don't want to rehash this for the 10,000th time, but if you're not one of the "Ohtani's guilty because I want him to be" crowd and you have genuine questions and skepticism about his purported innocence in the matter, I'd encourage you to read the 37-page document. It doesn't take all that long and it lays out an enormous amount of evidence against Mizuhara -- far more so than it leaves questions about Ohtani unanswered.
Sad Reds Fan
2:00
Not just in baseball but all sports, how is players betting still a thing? How hard is “you are not allowed or will be banned” to understand??
Steve Adams
2:02
Gambling will always be a thing. Steroids will always be a thing. Cheating in general will always be a thing. Players are human beings. A lot of humans take shortcuts to get money, power, etc. I'm sure we'll see additional high-profile gambling scandals in the future.

I'm also sure guys like Michael Kelly thought "Whatever I bet 99 bucks and I'm in the minors", and there's a part of me that legitimately sympathizes and feels for him since that mistake -- from a guy who was in his 20s at the time -- is going to cost him three quarters of a million dollars now. But the rules are in place, and they surely knew them at the time.
Jay
2:03
Is this a year where the Rays sell
Steve Adams
2:06
They're a team where it just genuinely matters how they play over the next six to seven weeks. Their president of baseball ops, Erik Neander, probably doesn't even know which route he'll take yet. But I don't think it'd be a pure fire sale regardless. Trading short-term bats with notable salaries (e.g. Arozarena, Yandy Diaz) might make sense if those guys start hitting, but the Rays could simultaneously bring in some controllable MLB-ready talent as they've often done in the past (with Arozarena and Diaz themselves, for instance).

Again, outside of just the very worst teams in the league, I don't think you'll see lots of pure selloffs. And even those teams might still add some controllable change-of-scenery guys. The A's traded for Abraham Toro in the offseason and he's been really good for them.
Curious A's Fan
2:07
Betting on baseball bad! Approving the move of a baseball franchise to the center of sports betting in America good! A minor league player betting during his offseason = a 1 year suspension! An entire team cheating during games requires a (insincere) public apology. How does this make sense?
Steve Adams
2:09
It doesn't. I don't have a better reply to that. MLB banning Michael Kelly for a year because he bet $99 on baseball while giving out lesser penalties for steroid usage and acts of domestic violence is just some really weird/really bad optics. I'm not excusing the act of betting on the game, no matter how small the stakes, but there's a pretty clear imbalance of discipline as well.
Kobra Khan
2:09
What can the Brewers offer to be in on Luzardo? I would put Quero on the table
Steve Adams
2:10
The Brewers line up really well with the Marlins. Two of Miami's ongoing needs for years have been behind the plate and in center field. Catching and outfield depth are two strengths for the Brewers org.
Geoff
2:12
Who is the favorite to sign Soto this offseason? At this point seems like the team in Queens is more likely to sign him versus the team in the Bronx.
Steve Adams
2:14
I don't think there are "favorites" to sign players four months before they hit the open market, but in general I do think there's an advantage for the incumbent team, so long as they have the financial wherewithal to make a compelling offer, which the Yankees clearly do.

I don't think that makes the Yankees a "favorite." If they're hoping to sign him for $500MM and thinking "We'll even go to 550 if that's what it takes," and then the market just blows up (a la Yoshinobu Yamamoto) and gets to the point where multiple teams are offering 600+, then yeah, they're going to be out.

But if they have a decently accurate read on where things are headed and feel comfortable with that number, then I do think it helps to be the most recent employer of said player
walk with elias
2:15
Who gets an extension first? Gunnar or Adley?
Steve Adams
2:16
The "Boras guys NEVER sign" narrative is overplayed, but there's enough truth behind that if you're asking me to choose between a superstar Boras client (Gunnar) and a superstar non-Boras client (Adley, who's repped by Wasserman) -- I'll take the non-Boras guy. So Rutschman for me.
2:17
Ok, I've got to wrap up. Thanks for participating, as always!

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Thanks everyone, and enjoy the rest of your week! I'm on Twitter / X @Adams_Steve for more questions whenever you like. Take care.
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