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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 7/1/25
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Steve Adams
1:54
Urias, yes. I think Springs has a good chance. Andujar
More O's Losses Please
1:54
The better Trevor Rogers throws, the better the argument for keeping him AND trading him. I say trade while he's throwing well. What's your call?
Steve Adams
1:56
He's made four starts with a below-average K%, a .200 BABIP and an 81% strand rate. He's throwing a bit harder. The pitch selection is largely unchanged minus swapping out some sinkers for more four-seamers. I haven't dived headlong into seeing if the shape and movement on his breaking pitches is dramatically different, but this feels far more like some small sample noise than a genuine rebound.
1:57
He's giving up boatloads of hard contact (52.5%) and wasn't even pitching well in Norfolk before his recall. I'm sure the O's are pushing the "we rebuilt him! we fixed him!" narrative, but as of now, I'm not buying it and don't think he'd command much of a return in a trade.
bob e
1:58
Could Cal Raleigh get trade in mega blockbuster
Steve Adams
1:58
Nope
Tim
1:58
Do the Cardinals  extend a qualifying offer to Ryan Helsley
Steve Adams
1:58
If they don't trade him, they should.
QO Bubble
1:59
Aside from nobrainers, who just makes it as of now and who just misses
Steve Adams
2:01
QO: Josh Naylor, Ryan O'Hearn, Gleyber Torres, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Ryan Helsley, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver

Some borderline/big-name candidates who I'd probably pass on right now, QO-wise: Luis Arraez, Willi Castro, Trent Grisham, Tyler Mahle, Zac Gallen, Paul Goldschmidt

Williams and Weaver are admittedly a little borderline, but I like both pitchers well enough that I expect them to justify it more clearly in the final three months.

D-backs would probably QO Gallen regardless, but man he has been SO bad.
Matt Arnold
2:01
Bo Bichette for Luis Pena and Tyler Black. Who says no?
Steve Adams
2:01
Blue Jays aren't going to sell
I mean, I suppose they could lose like 12 in a row, but ... as of right now, not happening.
reds reds reds
2:02
could suarez or naylor make sense for the reds? both have ties with the team and geno has been open to a return. naylor has longtime connections with tito. it would provide the bat the reds need to make a playoff push.
Steve Adams
2:03
Both make sense, sure, but as I noted on Suarez earlier, they both make sense for a good 5-10 teams around the league. (Not all the same teams, but both will have broad-reaching markets)
More likely
2:03
Which is more likely, Dodgers losing 12 in a row or White Sox winning 12 in a row?
Steve Adams
2:03
Which is likelier?
Dodgers lose 12 straight (49.7% | 90 votes)
 
White Sox win 12 straight (50.3% | 91 votes)
 
Total Votes: 181
Taker55
2:04
Bellinger feels like a sure opt-out at this pace, right?
Steve Adams
2:05
It's a net $20MM decision. I've been of the mind since spring training that he'll opt out unless he gets seriously injured or reverts to his horrendous 2021-22 form.
Right now, it's an easy call to opt out.
Joey Gallo Superfan
2:06
Could the Rockies sign Joey Gallo to be their closer
Steve Adams
2:06
I support this plan.
Windows of Contention
2:07
For Arizona in particular, should they be focused on 2026 or 2027 for their next splurge? There's a lot leaving the team this year (either via trade or free agency), but there's also significant mound talent returning in the second half of 2026. Whether in trades or free agency, should the team be focused on MLB ready talent or guys who may take another year to reach MLB ready status?
Steve Adams
2:11
They're still going to have a lineup built around Carroll, Perdomo, Marte, Moreno and hopefully Jordan Lawlar, with some decent role players like Pavin Smith, Lourdes Gurriel, etc.

The pitching needs work, but the lineup is impressive and the books are reasonably clean. There's a lot of work to be done on the pitching side of things, but the second half can be used as a means of evaluating some in-house arms (and some younger guys they pick up if/when they trade Suarez, Naylor, Shelby, etc.) ... I wouldn't punt on 2026 by any stretch, but they do need to figure out how to get some affordable pitching help. Big investments in Burnes and E-Rod obviously haven't worked out.
2:13
Ok, I've got to call it this week.

I'm on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.

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Enjoy the rest of your week, everyone!
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