Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 7/14/22
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Steve Adams
1:01
Greetings all -- sorry for the lack of a Tuesday chat. We shuffled up the schedule here a bit, so I need to sort out a new timeslot. Probably still Tuesdays, just earlier in the day... 11am CT, perhaps? I'll get it sorted by next week.
Anyhow, we'll go for around an hour right now!
Felix Pie
1:02
Do the Cubs get a top 100 type for Contreras, y/n?
Steve Adams
1:03
So, this is as good a time as any to issue a semi-regular reminder not to get too caught up on prospect rankings. The Cubs could conceivably pull a guy off the Top 100 over at Baseball America or FanGraphs or wherever, yes. But it's also worth emphasizing that those tools -- which are great, and I love, and I read regularly -- are snapshots in time that live in a constant state of flux.
1:05
BA just posted their midseason update to the Top 100 this week, and if they did it again two weeks from now, there would be changes. It's just the nature of things. Pitchers try new pitches, alter their mechanics. A guy makes a change in his swing and taps into raw power that hadn't been translating to games. Someone gets hurt -- or someone comes back healthy and dominates in his first 3-4 appearances and puts himself right back on the map.
The best prospect moved at last year's trade deadline might end up being Joe Ryan, and he wasn't on a Top-100 prospect list at all at the time and was only on the back end of most lists heading into 2022.
1:07
So sure, look at the scouting reports on the guys your team picks up at BA, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, etc. All of those guys do amazing work. But also bear in mind that the difference between the No. 80 prospect in MLB and the No. 120 prospect in MLB isn't necessarily huge.

Getting off the soapbox ... can Contreras get a Top-100-ish guy? Sure, I think he could net the Cubs a 50-FV type of prospect. But every team has their own evaluations, and there are assuredly teams out there who think a guy Baseball America would rank 200th in MLB is more like 40th-50th. It's subjective stuff!
M's
1:07
Is Jrod the real deal?
Steve Adams
1:07
Perennial All-Star who'll get MVP votes on the regular throughout his prime.
JD
1:08
Lou Trivino to the Phillies for a fringe prospect and a pallet of Barqs root beer…who says no?
Steve Adams
1:10
Root beer is tempting, but if no one's going to give anything up for Trivino the A's should just hold onto him. The K%, ground-ball rate, etc. are all fine. Too many walks, but his overall BB% isn't insanely high (10.1%).

Trivino has been hammered by a ridiculous .480 BABIP that's among the higher marks I can ever remember seeing at this point in the season. He's still a fine reliever, and if teams are going to try to get him for nothing, the A's should just hold and market him again next year.
Whymer
1:10
Is there a chance albert wins the homerun derby?
Steve Adams
1:10
I strongly doubt he wins it, but he's in there so sure, there's a chance I guess.
KW
1:11
Will the Sox regret the Eloy extension?
Steve Adams
1:11
It's a $43MM guarantee over six years. Even if Jimenez is constantly injured and the contract ends up a bust, it's not overly painful. It was a good deal for the Sox
Brent
1:12
What type of trade return can Baltimore expect to get for Mancini?
Steve Adams
1:13
A pretty marginal one. He's a good hitter but he's not dirt-cheap, he's a pure rental (it's extraordinarily rare for both sides to pick up a mutual option), and there's no real defensive value there. It'll be a return that pisses off O's fans in all likelihood -- especially now that they're improbably back to the .500 mark in mid-July.
Slake Bnell
1:13
Hosmer for Gallo?….What are the Yankees waiting on?
Steve Adams
1:14
The Yankees would never take Hosmer back for Gallo. He's owed $39MM over the three seasons from 2023-25. Gallo has been terrible for them, but he's a free agent at season's end. They could just cut him, move on, and be far better off than they would taking Hoz back.
Tony LaRussa
1:14
Why do I still have a job?
Steve Adams
1:15
It seems like the primary factor behind his initial hiring was his close relationship with White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf. So... probably that.
BlueJayMatt
1:15
Are the Rockies going to deal away any of their expiring contracts? Chad Kuhl seems a clear trade candidate but will the team make the obvious move this year?
Steve Adams
1:17
Colome, maybe?  Iglesias? It seems like they want to keep Daniel Bard and Chad Kuhl, which is ... something. The Rockies are 100% committed to keeping together a roster that has played at a 70-some win pace for the past 3-4 years now... with the exception of the best players on those teams (Story, Arenado, Gray).

I'll say this... I wish more teams tried with the same level of spirit the Rockies do. I don't generally agree with the moves they make, but I love that they're out there actually putting in the effort and not just shrugging/rebuilding because it worked for the Cubs and Astros.
Shawn p
1:18
Does madbum get moved?
Steve Adams
1:21
I know the ERA is down and the velo back up a bit, but he's still owed $37MM from 2023-24, has no-trade protection to five teams, and the secondary numbers under the hood just aren't great. I'd be pretty surprised to see someone take him, but the D-backs could always pay part of the contract down, as they did with Greinke.

The difference was that Greinke was still good and got them a decent return. I don't think Bumgarner would net a ton, prospect-wise, even if the D-backs ate $10-15MM of the contract.
Josh
1:21
Think the Twins could get Luis Castillo for Miranda, Martin and Winder?
Steve Adams
1:22
I do think that. I don't think they would do it -- but I do think they could get him for that.
David S Spencer
1:22
When do the Phillies make a move, and please tell me they get some help!!
Steve Adams
1:23
No one's made many moves yet. Most teams are focused on the draft, and most front offices are process-and-data-driven operations that won't risk making a potential misstep until they've gathered sufficient information (i.e. until the deadline is only a few days away)
B
1:23
PlayStation or Xbox?
FPS or rogue lite?
Steve Adams
1:23
Playstation, Rogue Lite, ha
John
1:23
They won’t, but wouldn’t it be smart for the angels to trade Ohtani? Angels fans seem so delusional that they aren’t winning in trouts prime with the current state of the organization
Steve Adams
1:25
Every year, I think the Angels are going to be a lot better, and every year, all hell breaks loose there. I am just kind of dumbfounded that they perennially find a way to have such underwhelming results with arguably the two best players in the game.

I wouldn't trade Ohtani. They continue to fall short and push the wrong buttons when trying to put together a good roster, but you've got another year of Trout and Sho, I just don't see how you can punt on the 2023 season in advance, knowing you have that combo.
1:26
Rays just put Shane Baz on the 15-day IL after he felt right elbow discomfort playing catch this week. Uh oh.
Pharcyde
1:26
Carlos Rodon straight up for an injured Royce Lewis. Who says no?
Steve Adams
1:27
Minnesota.

I don't think the Giants have any plans to move Rodon right now (though they would for a half decade of Royce, sure)
Will
1:27
How would you rate the trade value of the Tigers relievers: Lange, Fulmer, Soto? How many will be moved?
Steve Adams
1:28
Lange > Soto > Fulmer

Lange has five more years of control after this one. Soto has three. That alone makes both far more valuable than Fulmer, who's a free agent in a few months.
I think they'll trade Fulmer, Chafin, maybe Jimenez. Peralta if he gets back healthy and there's actual interest.
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