Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 7/19/22
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Steve Adams
11:02
Greetings all -- we've shuffled some of our scheduling around recently so I'll likely be chatting Tuesdays at this same 11am CT slot for the foreseeable future, rather than the old 2pm timeslot.
Andrew
11:03
Soto to the Padres, whats it going to take
Steve Adams
11:04
Soto anywhere is going to take a comically large return. We haven't seen a player this young, this good, with this much club control hit the market since Miguel Cabrera in 2007. Multiple names from Abrams, Gore, Hassell (maybe all three), plus other prospects. It's going to raid the top-end of any team's crop of young talent.
Train
11:04
For my fantasy league lol, but who’s most likely to get traded to the opposite league ?? German Marquez, Merrill Kelly, Brian Anderson
Steve Adams
11:04
Rockies won't trade Marquez. I doubt the D-backs move Kelly. I would rank Anderson, Kelly and Marquez, but I don't know that I consider any of the three actually likely to move.
Adam
11:05
Will Soto move this year? Could be wrong but it seems like too short of notice before the deadline for a deal that large…
Steve Adams
11:07
I tend to agree that it's pretty short notice right now, given the amount of work that'll go into a negotiation of this magnitude. I also don't think it'll greatly reduce the overall trade value. Two seasons of Soto is still going to command an obscene return, and the demand will be frenzied, which plays into the Nationals' favor.
11:08
Plus, by waiting until the offseason, the Nats will gain access to the pool of players being selected in this year's draft. Those guys can't be traded until the offseason and can't be included in deals as PTBNLs by rule.
11:09
Maybe that doesn't matter greatly and maybe the Nats would prefer more advanced prospects anyhow (from a development standpoint), but it would allow teams with thinner systems to beef up their offers and potentially drive up demand elsewhere.
Cards guy
11:10
what are your thoughts on STL acquiring Blackburn and Murphy in a deal? it’s seem like a logical move, and would address two of their needs at once, even with Molina coming back. Would that cost a lot?
Steve Adams
11:12
You're talking three and a half years of both players, so yeah, the asking price would be pretty substantial even though Blackburn isn't a No. 1 or No. 2 type of guy. It hasn't been Mozeliak's MO (awful pun intended) to make splashes like that, and given the team's defense, he could probably get by acquiring lower-tier rentals and still improve the club. Cards fans will hate that answer, but we're not even 12 months removed from them making Jon Lester and J.A. Happ solid in their final gasps before retirement.
Roberto 21
11:12
If B-Rey is healthy, does someone knock the bucs' sox off and get him?
Steve Adams
11:14
I don't think anyone's going to come up with the type of offer Cherington would realistically demand for Reynolds, no. They asked the Mariners for Julio a year ago, and I doubt the current price tag would be all that much lower.
Just Asking For a friend
11:14
Any thoughts on if baseball needs to re-align more based on geography, especially now that both leagues play with the same rules?
Steve Adams
11:15
I think it'd be wise, yeah. Encourage more rivalries, reduce travel. Travis Sawchik wrote a good piece on this a year ago:
https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2180580
Josh
11:16
Think Sano can help the Twins down the stretch? Wouldn’t mind seeing them add another bat like Josh Bell.
Steve Adams
11:19
I don't have high hopes but he's hit well during his rehab stint I suppose (in all of like... six? seven? games).

It ought to be a short leash for him when he returns, in my opinion. I can't imagine them picking up the 2023 option and riding this insane roller coaster again -- not with the younger options they have for the position.

Sano can absolutely carry an offense when he's right, but the extremity of his slumps is so hard to overlook.

I'd imagine pitching is the greater focus for the Twins than a DH type like Bell.
Jason
11:19
Any updates on Mike Soroka or Kirby Yates?
Steve Adams
11:20
Anthopoulos said last week there's no timetable on Soroka. Yates started a rehab assignment this weekend and struck out two in a perfect inning for the Braves' Complex League affiliate
Matt
11:20
Word is Musgrove could extend this week. Do you think it happens? If not when, if at all?
Steve Adams
11:23
If it's not this week he'll probably get to free agency. He should get an easy nine-figure deal at this point. If the Padres get him to sign under $150MM, they've done pretty well.

The 8-year, $88MM report from Spring Training was just one of those "Why would you even offer that" proposals, to me. I suppose you never know and maybe the guy will surprise you by taking a team-friendly deal, but that was just weird.
Who's on First
11:23
How smart is it for any team to trade their 3 top prospects, or more, for Soto? All that control over potentially good production for 2+ years of Soto. Isn't an extension a necessary component? Thanks Steve
Steve Adams
11:26
I don't think it's necessary. The majority of top prospects don't reach their ceiling. It's tempting to look at prospect lists and think of the 95th percentile scenarios, but those are so rare. Soto is a 99th-percentile prospect outcome, and two years of MVP-level production is overwhelmingly worth trading three top prospects, to me. If basically any team in baseball traded its top three prospects, plus two or three other lower-tier pieces for Soto, I wouldn't bat an eye, and I'd say "Good for them."

Obviously you want the extension, so the "best" fits are going to be the teams that can plausibly make a half-billion dollar offer, but I don't think it's a prerequisite, no.
Pirates Fan
11:28
Please dont mess up again. Imagine where the team would be if they actually got something good for Cole and didnt massively overpay for Archer.
Steve Adams
11:28
They got Joe Musgrove for Gerrit Cole!
11:30
Unfortunately, they also didn't know how to maximize his skills... but in terms of pure talent evaluation, Musgrove was a nice centerpiece in that deal.

The Archer trade looks increasingly less bad as time goes on... not that it was good, by any means. But Glasnow and Baz are both hurt, Meadows is kind of trending toward a Corey Dickerson type of corner OF. (Not necessarily in terms of exact skill set but in terms of how the market will ultimately value him)
At any rate, both the Cole and Archer trades were made under the former front office, so you can at least look forward to seeing how the newer regime will traverse this latest rebuild.
Guest
11:31
Do you think the giants should stay put or should look get better in the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
11:32
I doubt the Giants will decide that one way or another until about three days before the deadline.

From a big picture standpoint, I think they should be open to acquiring pretty much anyone who is controllable beyond 2022 -- that includes Juan Soto, yes -- but as for the rental guys (namely Rodon), the next few weeks will be telling with regard to their availability (or lack thereof)
Cooper
11:32
What do you think of the Rangers’ draft, 2 of the top pitchers? Outside the box thinking with a little lick
Steve Adams
11:33
I doubt there was all that much "luck" involved. I have a hard time believing they'd take Rocker No. 3 if they didn't feel overwhelmingly confident they could get Porter at the beginning of Round 4.
11:34
Meanwhile, Rocker has already agreed to terms and Levi Weaver from The Athletic reported the approximate value of the bonus Porter's "expected" to sign (in the $3.7MM range). Doesn't strike me as luck so much as a designed plan.
Trea Turner
11:35
In a saturated SS market, which teams are most inclined to bid on me at Free Agency?
Steve Adams
11:39
Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs jump to mind right away. Also have to consider the teams that are potentially losing high-end shortstops. I don't think the Twins (Correa) or Braves (Swanson) will dole out the eight-plus years that Turner will command, but they could be factors in his market (and their roles in the Swanson/Correa markets will impact Turner's indirectly).

The Angels have a hole at short and have money but I doubt they want another mega-deal, they'll need to be considering how they can retain Ohtani, and they'll still need pitching.
Rob
11:39
Drury and Castillo to Mariners makes sense right, in exchange for Marte, Brash and Hancock? Who says no?
Steve Adams
11:40
Mariners would deem that too expensive
Rangers
11:41
Will rangers trade for Soto?
Guest
11:41
Is the Soto trade distraction going to hurt the Reds chances of getting full value for Castillo and Mahle?
Steve Adams
11:42
So many Soto questions, ha. Not that I'm surprised.

The Rangers are my personal favorite fit for Soto, and he'd fit with the ultra-aggressive retooling that Daniels and Young have engineered over the past year. They sufficient prospect talent -- both in terms of marquee headliners and second-tier pieces to make a deep offer -- and even with Seager and Semien on the books, they can afford a mammoth annual salary because the rest of the payroll is so clean, by and large.
11:43
I'm not saying it'll happen, but at this point everyone is just speculating on what could happen regarding Soto anyway, and that's one of my favorites.
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