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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 7/25/23
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Steve Adams
8:29
Good morning all! We'll get this going in a few hours. Feel free to submit questions in advance, as always. Looking forward to it!
12:59
Happy deadline season -- let's chat
Tiger Fan
12:59
Michael Lorenzan for Jonathan India who says no?
Steve Adams
1:00
Reds, pretty easily. India's unlikely to be moved at all, and certainly not for a mid-range rental starter
hannah
1:00
what player do you think is mostly likely to be traded?
Steve Adams
1:01
Jeimer Candelario? He'd be an unlikely QO candidate, the Nats are going nowhere this year, and plenty of teams need a solid veteran bat like that (including a few at 3B)
1:02
Could argue for Giolito, but he's at least an easy QO recipient/rejection, so White Sox know they'd get a comp pick in 2024. They should get more than that and are extremely likely to trade him, but the possibility of a pick leaves some slight window they hold onto him.
Bednar
1:02
Do you see Bednar getting moved at the deadline?
Steve Adams
1:03
No. The Pirates will listen because of course they will. They're not really contending in 2023 after a hot start, they've been rebuilding, and there's always the possibility of a team blowing them out of the water with an unexpected offer. But I expect each of Bednar, Mitch Keller and Andrew McCutchen to stay with the Bucs
Angels 1961
1:03
Steve, if halos 6 back after Sunday they should trade Ohtani. Try and get some young players to build around Neto, O'Hoppe. Moniak, Adell plus others. Ohtani will test FA and be playing somewhere else in 2024.
Steve Adams
1:05
I agree that the best long-term thing for them is probably to trade Ohtani, since I doubt they'll sign him in the offseason either way. I hope they do. It'd be fun. I want to see Ohtani in the playoffs. An active Ohtani market and him legitimately being on the block is good for business for MLBTR. Etc.

I still don't think they're going to trade him, though. 4.5 back in the Wild Card, winners of 6 of their last 10.
Mets
1:05
Could you see Quintana being traded?
Steve Adams
1:07
Yeah, especially if the Mets are willing to eat some of the contract to sweeten the return. It'll add to their 2024 pitching needs, but he's not likely to be part of a Mets postseason push in '23 and he'll turn 35 in the offseason. Looked good in his first start, and he'll have at least one more to give interested teams another look.
Ryan
1:07
Also, what kind of return should be expected for Barlow? Should be better than the Rockies return for Johnson, right?
Steve Adams
1:07
Considerably. Barlow's controlled for another season. Johnson just on a one-year deal. And Barlow's just better.
Bob Dole
1:08
With a few days to go this trade deadline feels dull. Is chapman the best player we see traded?
Steve Adams
1:09
It's actually been more active early on than deadlines past. Today's front offices are loath to make any real moves/decisions until the last minute. It's not just the trade deadline. It's the non-tender deadline. The Rule 5 protection deadline. Etc. etc. etc.

Most of the action won't really be underway until the final 48 to 72 hours prior to the deadline.
JT
1:09
Is Lane Thomas traded? If so, would he fetch a better return than say Candelario considering the years of control?
Steve Adams
1:10
If he's traded he should get a better return than Candy, yes. I don't know that other teams will view him as a clear-cut starter, given the huge platoon splits, so the Nats may value him more than interested parties. But yeah, if he IS moved, it's because someone offered something better than whatever the Nats will get in the inevitable Jeimer trade.
Stymeed at the Deadline
1:10
The press keep saying that E-Rods contract is a problem in trade talks, because he may opt in.   If he does, he is only due $14MM per year, which doesn't seem like any type of overpay.  Why would having a mid to TOR starter at $14MM be an obstacle?
Steve Adams
1:12
Firstly, he's owed $49MM from 2024-26 -- so it's $16.333MM per year, not $14MM.

Secondly, the only way he's forgoing the opt-out is if he suffers an injury or has a major second-half collapse. At that point, at the very least, the 2024 season feels less desirable. He'd have time to bounce back, but imagine if he were a pure free agent and had a notable second-half injury or pitched to a 5.75 ERA in his final 15 starts or whatever.

At that point, no one's expecting him to get 3/49 in free agency.
1:13
The only way he's opting into 3/49 is if he feels the market won't provide it to him. The opt-out creates pure downside; I don't buy the "silver lining" of possibly keeping him at that rate. It could work out in the long run, but it won't be desirable in the short-term.
Farhan Z
1:13
Could the Giants make a move for Tyler O’Neill? Would add speed and some hitting to the outfield and lineup.
Steve Adams
1:14
I haven't expected the Cardinals to sell low on O'Neill, and Katie Woo with The Athletic reported just an hour or two ago that they plan to hold onto TON.
Johnny U
1:15
Realistic trade package from Reds to Whitesox for Cease or Giolito…
Steve Adams
1:18
They're wildly different. Cease isn't likely to be moved, in large part because the asking price would be so prohibitive. The White Sox would almost surely be asking for some of the Reds' controllable young infielders -- not India, the younger and even more controllable tier (Steer, De La Cruz, McLain, etc.).

Giolito's not going to be nearly as steep. He's a pure rental, whereas Cease is controlled through 2025. But the White Sox are still in their rights to seek a 50 FV type of prospect for Giolito, or close to it. In Cincinnati's case, that might be someone like Edwin Arroyo or Noelvi Marte.

He's the best rental that might be moved -- or close to it -- and I expect they'll command a package headlined by at least one pretty high-end prospect, be it from the Reds or another interested party.
TxDude
1:18
Will the Padres sell? Or just hold off and try again next season.
Steve Adams
1:21
I wrote for our Front Office subscribers a couple weeks ago that they should be open to selling Snell and Hader while simultaneously backfilling the roster with lower-cost, short-term MLB help. I still think that's the approach -- it weakens the current roster a bit while adding some needed '24 help/youth and trimming enough payroll to dip them under the third tier of luxury penalization. Doing that will prevent their top 2024 pick from being pushed back by 10 spots.
Craig
1:21
Does a Grichuk/Cron bundle to Milwaukee have any shot of happening?
Steve Adams
1:21
Brewers need help against lefties, so sure I can see something like that. I don't think the asking price would be all that daunting.
Twins Fan
1:23
Kepler for Teoscar Hernandez, who says no?
Steve Adams
1:23
Kepler's been better than Teoscar this season and is a better defender with a lower salary
Schloem41
1:23
If India is traded, which team do you think is the best fit?
Steve Adams
1:26
I really don't think he will be. I know the tendency is to get excited when someone reports that a team will listen on Player X, but that's such a different mentality than "We're shopping Player X for Need Z"

The Reds will listen on India because they have immense infield depth, an acute need (starting pitching), and it's GM Nick Krall's job to try to balance those things out. But they'll likely value India at a higher level than most potential trade partners; India is entrenched in that clubhouse, has been through the ugly years, is wildly popular with the fans, etc.

For another club, he's appealing, but he's a slightly above-average hitter at a non-premium position on the diamond. I don't think it's easy to balance out the scales in any trade discussion surrounding him.
Guest
1:26
Who would the Dodgers give up for Arenado?
Steve Adams
1:26
Arenado has a no-trade clause and has said repeatedly he wants to stay in St. Louis.
Steve Cohen
1:26
Did I just give all of the front offices a ton of ammunition to use against the "spend money to get better" argument? Are we going to see a ton of teams pointing to the Mets as an excuse to not spend money?
Steve Adams
1:29
Some owners/front offices might point to the Mets and say "See, going over the fourth luxury tax tier doesn't do anything and isn't a viable strategy," sure.

But that doesn't make it a valid excuse. The Mets will probably do it again next year, and it could work then.

Taking exactly one season of a strategy and using it to say "this strategy can't work" is naturally silly.

Plus, just look at the correlation between payroll and World Series participants in the past several years; it's regularly a clash between high-payroll clubs. There are exceptions (Royals x2, Rays, Guardians/Indians), but spending has its obvious benefits and increases teams' margin for error on roster decisions.
Angels Fan
1:30
Any chance the Angels could attach Rendon's contract to a Shohei trade and then use the savings to offer Shohei even more money in free agency?
Steve Adams
1:31
As badly as teams would want Ohtani, I don't think anyone's taking on Rendon's deal to get him. That's $114MM, plus the remaining $10MM or so on Ohtani's deal.

Shohei's going to command a record contract in free agency, but no one's going to value two-plus months of him at $124MM.
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