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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 8/24/22
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Nick
12:40
Elias in Baltimore said payroll will significantly increase this winter. Who you got them signing? Is a trade for Shohei out of their range or?
Steve Adams
12:41
He also said a lot of that's going to come via raises to their own players via arbitration.

I don't think the Orioles are going to just cannonball into free agency and sign Trea Turner and Carlos Rodon or anything (though I wish they would, because offseason pandemonium is a blast)

I don't think gutting the top of the farm for a year of Ohtani gels with the years-long rebuild they've been undergoing, no.
Guardians
12:42
Extend Amed or trade him?
Steve Adams
12:44
I don't think he's someone they should look to extend, though that doesn't make a trade a foregone conclusion. He's a solid player with plenty of value to them now and in 2023. There's a totally justifiable argument for just keeping him and letting him reach free agency.

Overall, the Guardians have such a large collection of middle infield talent, and paying close to market value for Rosario limits their ability to spend on other areas of less depth. For a team with Cleveland's annual payroll constraints, that's more problematic than it would be elsewhere.
12:46
To be clear, I do think there's a good chance he's traded this winter. They just don't let a lot of non-stars get to free agency, because they use those final years of club control to keep the farm strong and deep.

My initial reply was meant to state that in my personal view, they're justified to keep him and let him hit free agency ... but history tells us they'll be open to getting some value, turning over the infield mix a bit, and reallocating those dollars elsewhere.
Dave
12:47
Is Luke Voit on the Nationals next year or is he a non-tender candidate? Or given how unhappy he reportedly was to be traded, does he have enough juice to demand a trade to a contender?
Steve Adams
12:48
Voit is hitting less now than he was a year ago when there wasn't a huge market for his services, and he'd be due a raise in arbitration. I think he's just a non-tender candidate
12:49
No clearly defined contender is going to look at Voit and decide trading minor league talent for the right to pay him around $7MM is the best move at first base.
Steve
12:49
Do players with opt outs in there contract cost a draft pick in free agency? (Correa, Bogaerts)
Steve Adams
12:50
If they receive  and reject a qualifying offer after opting out, yes. You can only receive one QO in your career, however, and Correa already got one last winter. He won't have a draft pick attached this winter.

Bogaerts has never been a free agent and has thus never received a QO. He'll opt out. The Red Sox will offer one. He will reject it and cost a new team some draft capital.
Upson Downs
12:51
Look at the Yankees.  Take the first couple of months, they were a superteam.  Take the recent stretch (excluding their current 3-game win streak) and they almost looked liek the original Mets.  Neither is representative of how they play over a full season, or in October.
Steve Adams
12:52
Right. We see people throw their hands up and say "Oh man this team is done now" after a tough week or two, but it's never that simple -- unless it's something where in that tough week or two, said team lost its top three starters to elbow surgery.
12:53
The same is true on the other side of the coin, too. The 2021 Cardinals won 17 straight games in September and then didn't even get to the NLDS after the Dodgers took them out in the Wild Card game.
AA
12:54
Can we really afford deGrom next year?  I would have one nasty rotation!
Steve Adams
12:55
Sure the Braves could afford him. Most teams can. Atlanta has a $190MM-ish payroll right now and only $132MM on next year's books. They'll have some arb raises (Fried most notably) and that number might grow if Odorizzi picks up his player option, but from a payroll perspective, it's perfectly doable.
12:57
Question is whether the Braves will want to actually go to the multi-year lengths necessary to get deGrom, particularly since you're probably looking at a near-record-setting value (or an actual record-setting AAV) over multiple years to get it done.

They're generally shied away from that. Ozuna is the closest to a long-term, open market deal under Anthopoulos, and even that only came after Ozuna lingered on the market and substantially dropped his asking price.
1:00
DeGrom is a whole different level of spending... I wouldn't assume it's possible just based on Buster Olney tweeting what some execs told him was their gut feeling awhile back. We hear about "perceived favorites" for guys who've yet to even hit the market this time of year every year. It rarely plays out that way.
This time a year ago, Carlos Correa was already a Tiger because of AJ Hinch.
1:01
The Orioles just claimed RHP Phoenix Sanders off waivers from the Rays.
Sam
1:01
Thoughts on Miguel Sano's future? I see him as a candidate to turn himself around in Japan or KBO, but what are your thoughts?
Steve Adams
1:01
The Twins will decline his option and he'll sign with a different MLB club on a one-year deal this winter.
1:02
If that flops, then maybe he looks overseas, but another club will take a chance at unlocking the 80-grade power and keeping him healthy.
Jimmy
1:03
Will Oakland be looking to trade Sean Murphy? He is going to start making money next year. The Cardinals have money and prospects and will need a Catcher preferably one that can hit like Murphy does. Thanks for the chats Steve.
Steve Adams
1:05
Yeah there's a decent chance Murphy gets moved this winter. Should be plenty of interest. Cardinals do make sense as a landing spot with Yadi retiring, though they've got Ivan Herrera as a near-MLB option.

Guardians, Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Mets, Marlins, Cubs all make some sense too (to varying extents)
Giantsfan…..
1:06
With SFG having a significant ability to open their deep pockets, what are the chances they sign Judge and Turner? (however.. I’m not a HUGE fan of big money for Judge at this point of his career unless it’s a 5/200 deal.. but there is no way he will sign that..
Steve Adams
1:07
Sign both? Next to nonexistent. One would make sense and seem feasible. I agree that Judge wouldn't sign for 5/200.
1:08
That's light by around three years and $100MM at this point.
rocco rox
1:08
will the Rockies fire Bud Black and or Bill Schmidt? they need a fresh facein there
Steve Adams
1:08
Nope.
The Rockies have needed a fresh face in the front office for more than a decade. They only promote from within. Schmidt hasn't even been in the GM chair for two years.
Gwynning
1:09
Rooting for Pujols and his pursuit of 700, Judge and his Yankee run on Maris (and Bonds?)... kind of reminds me of some 90's homerun sprints. What era was most exciting for you to fully take in?
Steve Adams
1:11
I'm 37, so I have pretty vivid memories of those '98 home run chases. That was a crazy exciting time. I remember watching Bonds' 756th as well.
1:12
There was something magic about the McGwire/Sosa home run pursuits though ... and I guess, randomly, Greg Vaughn for awhile earlier in that '98 season haha.
1:14
Alright I've got to wrap up for the week. Thanks, as always, for chatting -- and sorry for all the questions I can't get to in these. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve if you're so inclined and always happy to take more questions there.

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Have a great week, everyone!
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