JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 8/3/21

Steve Adams

2:09

We're about 96 hours removed from the most chaotic deadline I can recall.

Welcome! Let's chat!

Nats

2:10

How long is our rebuild since we have multiple high level prospects at/close to the major league level?

Steve Adams

2:13

I don't think the Nationals are going to go full rebuild. This was something of a step back and an admission that 2021 wasn't their year, but general manager Mike Rizzo consistently sought to put together a winning roster, and I expect they'll spend this offseason to put some talent around Juan Soto, whom they obviously opted not to trade.

If this were a full-scale rebuild, Soto would quite possibly have been out the door for the mother of all prospect packages. Instead, he's there through at least 2024. The Nats have about $66MM in payroll on next year's books and $85MM worth of luxury commitments. I expect them to spend this winter.

TwinsGuy

2:14

Would shaving a couple years off of Buxton's contract extension make sense for both sides? Something like 5 years, 80 million + plate appearance incentives?

Steve Adams

2:15

Buxton's still giving up four free-agent years there -- and the bulk of his prime in the process. If they really want to extend him, they should just up the guarantee as well as the total incentives -- or at least the accessibility of those incentives.

There's a ton of risk and I get why the team is reluctant, but shortening the deal so Buxton can reach free agency as a 32-year-old doesn't really feel like a great incentive.

Mr. Chernoff

2:16

I'm sitting 8.5 behind the white Sox and 6 games behind the wild card with a bunch of teams to jump. Is it wave the white flag time and shut down civale and the Biebs?

Steve Adams

2:17

I don't see the point in shutting down Civale and/or Bieber unless medical experts recommend that for their long-term well being. I don't find the Indians likely to make the playoffs, of course, but six games back isn't exactly insurmountable.

Michael Phelps is an Orioles fan

2:18

Do the Marlins plan to flip a young starter for a bat after acquiring Luzardo?

Steve Adams

2:18

I think they'll be open to exactly that type of scenario this winter, yes. They got Alex Jackson and Bryan De La Cruz at the deadline, but I don't see how they can view either of those guys as long-term options in CF or at C. They'll be looking for more impactful long-term options this winter.

Schoop

2:19

How was I not traded? I am a flexible player, with a decent stick in the last year of a very reasonable contract. NO contender needs me?

Steve Adams

2:22

Schoop is in the only year of his reasonable contract -- it's a one-year deal, and the third one he's signed in a row. I think Tigers fans value Schoop more than others around the industry. He's a nice hitter but is fairly limited from a defensive and OBP standpoint.

He's also been a roughly league-average hitter outside of an abysmal April and a Herculean June, which cancel each other out to at least some extent.

Don't get me wrong -- Schoop would've made a lot of contenders better, but I think the Tigers just felt they'd rather keep him around than trade him for some 40-FV type of prospect who doesn't bring much ceiling to the organization.

2022 FA

2:22

Best 2022 FA Arms available for starting pitching?

Steve Adams

2:24

Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Marcus Stroman, Zack Greinke, Anthony DeSclafani, Robbie Ray, Michael Pineda, Noah Syndergaard and Alex Wood are all free agents this winter. I'm sure I forgot some solid names. It's a very strong class:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents.html

(That link is to our listing of the entire 2021-22 free agent class)

Neal Huntington's former roommat

2:25

Do the orioles lack of action at the deadline point to them start trying to be actually building vs. rebuilding?

Steve Adams

2:26

I think it pointed to the very real PR implications of trading Mancini, the clubhouse leader and most popular (among fans) Oriole they've had in years, when he was a year removed from a terrifying cancer diagnosis. It's also reflective of John Means' stock being down post-injury and the fact that with so much control remaining, his value will still be sky-high this winter and next summer alike, health permitting.

I still thought the Orioles would trade one or both of Tanner Scott and Paul Fry. I'm a little surprised all they really did was trade Galvis.

Joey Votto

2:26

I am a god amongst men, correct?

Steve Adams

2:27

I've been a huge Votto fan for years, and what he's done in the past couple weeks is amazing.

Slothcliff Hokum

2:27

Which free agents are the Mariners likely to target during the off-season?

Steve Adams

2:28

Starting pitchers and bullpen help. I wonder if they'll try to bring Graveman back again. They obviously love him and probably had a hard time trading him -- just felt five years of Toro was too much to pass up.

I'd put the M's as a viable candidate to pursue pretty much any of the starters I listed earlier.

Blue

2:29

Madrigal/heuer for kimbrel? Who won?

Steve Adams

2:32

I think it's silly to declare "winners" and "losers" in the immediate aftermath of these deals. I understand why both teams made the move. I wouldn't have given up five years of Madrigal for 1.5 of Kimbrel, but it's a major upgrade in 2021 when Madrgial is a non-factor for the ChiSox. And it's hard to overstate the importance of dominant relief pitching in short postseason series with scheduled off-days that inherently mean you'll never have to push your top relievers more than three days in a row.

I think I probably like Madrigal's skill set more than many clubs around the game, so it'd have been tough for me to make the move. The White Sox' World Series chances in 2021 and probably 2022 improved with the move though, so I think it works for both parties to an extent.

Which side do you prefer?

1.5 years of Craig Kimbrel (26.7% | 193 votes)

5+ years of Nick Madrigal + Codi Heuer (73.3% | 529 votes)

Total Votes: 722

Braves Fan

2:33

Are we the most disappointing team of 2021?

Steve Adams

2:33

Hard to give that title to anyone other than the Twins. I don't think anyone would've pegged them as a bottom-five team that shipped out Jose Berrios coming off last year's division title.

Cubs Fire Sale

2:34

Heyward and Arrieta D/F/A ed? Hendricks and Contreras traded? y/n?

Steve Adams

2:35

I assume you're asking about this winter, since the trade deadline has passed. Arrieta will be a free agent, so no need to DFA. They won't DFA Heyward. I think there's a decent chance they trade Contreras and a lesser but still-real chance someone makes them a Hendricks offer they're not sure they can pass.

Greg

2:35

Now that the deadline has come and gone and the angels continue to lose, do you think they wish they made more trades? Iglesias’ and/or Cobb?

Steve Adams

2:36

I was surprised they didn't trade Iglesias. There was considerable interest in him, and I thought he was the second-most impactful reliever available behind Kimbrel.

Gunk

2:37

Is Dombrowski the most hard-headed GM in baseball? The division is weak but the Phillies aren't going anywhere in the playoffs even if they somehow manage to overtake the Mets. Why didn't the Phillies sell at the deadline?

Steve Adams

2:39

Phillies owner John Middleton hired Dombrowski because he wanted a win-now executive running his team. I think the decision to add was probably as much from ownership as from the front office. Plus, while the Phillies aren't any kind of postseason favorite, they're 2.5 back from the division right now. You can argue about whether they made the right individual moves, but I think they made the right call. When you're within five games in a weak division, the leader is currently reeling and one of your primary competitors is engineering a massive fire sale, I fully support taking the shot -- flawed roster or not.

Paul

2:40

Is Bryce Harper having the best season that absolutely no one is talking about? Did he go from being overrated to underrated?

Steve Adams

2:43

Harper's been awesome. His personality was probably always going to be polarizing -- I love it -- but the fact is that he's been underrated by a lot of people for a long time. It seemed like the moment he wasn't a perennial top three MVP finisher, those who dislike his outspokenness/personality/whatever you want to call it just rushed to call him a bust or overrated.

Harper

Harper's "worst" year in the Majors, by measure of wRC+, came when he was 11 percent better than an average hitter in 2016.

2:45

He's been 41% above average for the past half decade. He's a legitimately great player who'll out-earn what's actually a relatively modest AAV for a good chunk of his contract.

Dodgers only

2:45

Is there a set date on when Trea Turner can play?

Steve Adams

2:45

Players who test positive are subject to a minimum 10-day quarantine under 2021 Health and Safety guidelines. Turner tested positive six days ago.

Doesn't mean he'll be back after 10 exactly, of course.

Road Dogg

2:46

Granted, all playoff teams will have good odds, but how surprised would tou be if the Brewers were to go and win it?

Steve Adams

2:47

Not really surprised. Woodruff-Burnes-Peralta is about as good a rotation trio as you could dream up for the postseason, and they'll have Hader and Devin Williams late in games. Escobar was a nice addition to the lineup, too.

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