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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 8/9/22
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Steve Adams
11:42
I don't think so. May only has three seasons of club control remaining. Lux four. The Padres gave the Nats five high-end prospects/young players they can control for six-plus seasons.
Tyler Anderson
11:42
What does my next contract look like? My performance has been absolutely incredible, but do I need to replicate it at least once to really earn the big bucks?
Steve Adams
11:44
He'll be 33 this offseason. The chance for Anderson to earn the "really big bucks" has probably sailed (at least in regards to some crazy nine-figure deal or something). But he's had an outstanding year, and he should look to max out this winter. Go get yourself a three-year deal with an eight-figure AAV and bask in it. Even if it's "only" 3/36 or so -- that contract would've seemed impossible for Anderson just a year ago.
Jesse
11:45
How surprised were you to see the Mets not do more to help their bullpen at the deadline? It seems especially egregious that they didn't add a lefty. Is the possibility of using starting pitching depth (Megill, Peterson, Lucchesi, Williams) to bolster the bullpen sufficient or will they regret the inactivity in October?
Steve Adams
11:46
Pretty surprised. I get that there weren't really a ton of lefties available, but there were plenty of solid relievers out there to be had. The Twins got Jorge Lopez for ...... well, not very much at all. David Robertson cost the Phillies one decent-but-not-elite SP prospect. Etc.

Adding Givens is fine on its face, but I thought they'd do more with the 'pen and more in general.
BIG Trades
11:47
I love when organizations go all in for their fans, but the Padres and Mariners are interesting cases to me.  I feel the Mariners paid too much for Castillo for a team that is not really battling for a WS title and now have depleted their farm system for chasing a 3rd WC spot when they should have been looking more for the future and the Padres to me seem like they are more worried about chasing down the Dodgers than actually chasing down a WS.  Am I looking at this correctly?
Steve Adams
11:51
The Mariners and Padres both know they're not winning their divisions this year but also know they're both strong Wild Card favorites (FanGraphs gives Seattle 81% chance of making playoffs, San Diego 83%).

Why not do everything you can to improve your odds in those short series? Especially when said players are controlled beyond the current season? I applaud them for not being so caught up with upside and prospect valuation that they pass on the opportunity to improve right now.

Castillo, Ray, Gilbert feels a lot better in a 3-game Wild Card series than Gilbert, Ray and ... Flexen? Gonzales?

Soto is around for three playoff pushes in San Diego. Good on them. I think the industry as a whole is overly protective of prospects.
SOTANI
11:51
Who gets the bigger extension for years and $, Ohtani or Soto?
Steve Adams
11:52
I'd guess Soto longer and greater guarantee. Ohtani the higher AAV.
Josh
11:52
Can you see the Twins signing a veteran outfielder like Bradley Jr., Herrera or Marisnick?
Steve Adams
11:53
At this point the Twins' outfield is so banged up they should be looking at anyone who's cut loose, yeah. Especially Bradley/Marisnick, who if nothing else give them some top-shelf defense. They're not going to find an impact bat they can sign with Kepler, Kirilloff, Larnach, Garlick, etc etc all hurt, but they can add a strong glove
Sean
11:54
If the M's are able to extend Castillo, say 5/$125 ish, then trading away those top prospects for an ace is a lot easier to stomach... agree?
Steve Adams
11:56
Sure, but that's presuming a lot. 5/125 isn't an especially realistic number, either. Castillo's going to earn maybe $12MM in arbitration this winter, so that framework is positing that he'll receive $28.25MM annually per free agent year. I'm sure he'd jump at that, but that's steep when you've got Gausman, Ray, etc. signing in the 22-23 range.

If they offered something like 6/122, I have to think that's a decent framework with still a year to go before free agency. At the same time, if Castillo is healthy/good next year, that's probably light relative to open-market expectations. All depends on risk tolerance, for both sides.
Tanner
11:56
Will Seattle extend a QO to Haniger?
Steve Adams
11:57
If he comes back and absolutely mashes for two months, maybe, but right now he's played 12 games in '22, zero in '20 and 63 in '19.

I know he was great for 157 games in 2021, but something like $18.5M is a fair bit of risk, given the recent track record of injury.
Oldman 58
11:58
Stroman can opt out after this season
Steve Adams
11:58
He can opt out after 2023, not 2022.
Gausman
11:58
Don’t you think I’m a bit overpaid in my current contract?
Steve Adams
11:58
He's been a bargain so far.
Jdp
11:59
When will you guys be putting out your QO predictions?
Steve Adams
11:59
Mark is working on a piece previewing the QO market that should run this week.
MN Win
11:59
Interesting approach by Twins trading off most of the 2021 draft picks (plus Steer) for Gray and Mahle.  Think it was a sell high on low level guys?  They found a work-around for not trading draft picks by trading the recently drafted guys.  Still seems like the right move with a very winnable division this year
Steve Adams
12:01
I don't think it's a workaround -- I think it's a testament to the fact that they had a pretty strong 2021 draft and leveraged it into some help for the immediate future. For a team that's had some pretty notable misses in the draft in prior seasons (particularly in the first round, with Sabato and Cavaco), it was a much-needed strong draft that's paying dividends. Also thinned out the current system a fair bit, but they probably felt pretty good to get Brooks Lee at 8 somehow
Striders’ slider
12:02
Can my teammate (Micheal Harris II) and I be co-Rookies of the year?
Steve Adams
12:03
You cannot! Strider over Harris, for me. (And over the rest of the field in the NL)
Mets catcher
12:03
or will Cohen buy mccann out?
Steve Adams
12:04
There are no buyouts in MLB. They could release him and just pay him to play elsewhere the final two seasons of the deal, but he's getting that money one way or another.
Chris
12:05
Re: Heyward. Do you think Patrick Corbin's deal is also one of the worst of all time? Objectively terrible since 2020, but was an essential piece to the 2019 team that won the World Series.
Steve Adams
12:06
Less money, and Corbin was legitimately great in 2019 plus serviceable in 2020. It's not a good contract, but it's been better.

To be clear, I don't have any kind of ill will or hate toward Jason Heyward. The guy was a very good player who got a very big contract and it didn't work out. It happens. That was true of Chris Davis, too. Albert Pujols. The Tigers' last Miguel Cabrera extension. The Strasburg deal for the Nats.

These things happen.
Sustaining
12:08
Can the Cards sustain the lead in the central? Pretty much theirs to lose now?
Steve Adams
12:08
They're two games up on Milwaukee, and Dakota Hudson is still a shaky fifth starter. I wouldn't call it theirs to lose. It's going to be a pretty close race.
Laughing Mo
12:09
A lot of Cards fans mystified by the lack of respect for the trade deadline deals.  I mean two solid SPs in a short-supplied market (one of whom we keep for 2023), and none of the crown jewels lost.  Heavens, we even sold highish on Baders expiring contract despite his borked foot.   Do you agree with the majority of pundits who cried 'meh' at Mozeliaks deals, or are you with us Cards fans that think he pulled of a reall shrewd one this year?
Steve Adams
12:13
Well, Bader's contract isn't expiring. He's signed through 2023.

Generally, I thought it was fine. Quintana's been good and will benefit from the Cards' defense. Montgomery gives them some much needed rotation help both now and in 2023, when they could be without Wainwright and Quintana.

I think it's only seen as "meh" because fans got their hopes up for Soto and Montas or something, but as I've said in prior chats here... Montas just seemed like the type of piece who was more expensive than the Cardinals are ever willing to go for.

Soto would've been great, and they're one of the few teams who could feasibly have matched up with the Padres in terms of pure talent, but it's all subjective. If the Nationals preferred the Padres' players, then maybe it wasn't as close as many on the outside would assume looking at third-party prospect rankings. There have been multiple reports that the Nats weren't as high on Liberatore as others, for instance (and those came out well before the trade was made).
12:14
Alright I've got to wrap up for the week. Thanks, as always, for chatting -- and sorry for all the questions I can't get to in these. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve if you're so inclined and always happy to take more questions there.

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Have a great week, everyone!
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