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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/17/24
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Steve Adams
1:46
I don't have any reason to expect he won't be. The track record of two-time TJ pitchers isn't great, of course, but Ohtani has shown at this point that he defies historical norms in terms of player performance. And it's not as though there aren't any good pitchers who've had multiple Tommy John surgeries. Nathan Eovaldi, Daniel Hudson, etc.
Beer Noises
1:46
How likely will a Devin Williams trade happen this off-season?
Steve Adams
1:50
The Brewers will be open to it. He'll make $10.5MM after that no-brainer club option is picked up. That's about 9% of their current payroll, which is a lot for the Brewers. And they've historically shown a willingness -- if not a preference -- to move star players when things reach this juncture.

Its notable that they didn't move Willy Adames, but it's easier to pay an All-Star caliber shortstop $12MM than to pay a reliever with recent back issues $10.5MM -- no matter how dominant said reliever is.

It's not a lock, but there's a very real chance he moves this winter, particularly since the return would have to be fairly large.
BREWERS gm Arnold
1:50
Chances I tender Civale? Woodruff, Peralta, Myers, Civale, Rea seems a decent starting 5.
Steve Adams
1:51
He's been pretty darn good in Milwaukee, and they can't bank on Woodruff returning to a full slate of high-quality innings, nor can they assume Rea/Myers simply repeat this performance. Civale's going to cost less on a one-year deal in arbitration than a lot of shakier rebound candidates would cost in free agency. He's very likely to be tendered a contract, in my opinion.
Dave Mc
1:52
For years I have heard that the Orioles can make any trade happen. Is that still true?
Steve Adams
1:53
They still have one of three to four best farm systems in baseball and a blank-slate long-term payroll. They can put together a package of young talent impressive enough to acquire just about any player. Whether GM Mike Elias would actually do that is another story. He's traditionally been pretty stingy with prospects, especially the very top-ranked ones in his system.
Cole Irvin
1:54
The Orioles have been below average the 2nd half of the year, had a terrible trade deadline and gave away a ton of prospect depth for no difference makers, and are going to lose Corbin Burnes next year and not have Kyle Bradish as he makes his way back from TJ surgery. How concerned should they be with Elias’s trade history??.
Steve Adams
1:56
Elias got Bradish for Dylan Bundy, Yennier Cano and Cade Povich for Jorge Lopez, Chayce McDermott for the last couple months of Trey Mancini ... I think he has a pretty fine trade history. The Rogers deal just kind of soured a lot of folks. Understandably so, but for what it's worth, he's been really good in his past three AAA starts.
I'd spend more time fretting over whether Rubenstein will give him the latitude he needs to complement his core via free agency.
1:57
Not saying he won't, we just don't know how he'll act as an owner because we haven't seen an offseason under Rubenstein yet.
Alan53
1:57
Players' and agents' egos being what they are, I think it's a cinch that Bellinger will opt out, and I am surprised that others think otherwise, or that it could go either way. Am I missing something?
Bernie Franks
1:57
Do you think Bellinger will opt out ?
Steve Adams
1:59
I don't think he will, but that's largely because he has the second opt-out next winter. He can take home a $27.5MM salary next season, and then if he opts out after that, he still gets the $5MM buyout on his $25MM player option for 2026.

So he's looking at another $32.5MM by opting in ... I don't think he's played well enough this season to forgo that type of one-year commitment. He can pocket that, then try to max out in the 2025-26 offseason when he's, ahem, "only" walking away from a net $20MM.
2:00
If he and Boras think $100MM+ is there right now, go for it, but I'm not sure I think that's the case, and he can earn almost one-third of that anyhow just by staying another year in Chicago and then trying again next winter. Worst-case scenario, he flops in '25 and "has to settle" for the net $20MM in 2026.
John
2:01
How do you remember these minor trade details?
Steve Adams
2:02
I have a very good memory in the first place -- thanks Dad!! -- and I sit here and stare at trade and free agent minutiae all day for a living, haha. It's a gift, I guess?
Josh
2:02
Think the Twins trade Duran this offseason?
Steve Adams
2:03
I don't. I don't think people would even be asking about it -- you're not the only one -- if the Dodgers and a couple other clubs hadn't tried to get creative at the deadline and see if they could pry him away. But no, I highly doubt he'll be on the move. Can't blame teams for trying, and maybe the Twins listen to what they have to say out of due diligence, but I expect him to be right back where he is next season.
Sam and Dave
2:04
Should I try to extend Alec Bohm this winter? Love the guy, but what is a 3B worth that has made himself into a solid but not a plus defender; a really good hit tool but not many walks and below par power at the position?
Steve Adams
2:07
My opinions on Alec Bohm aren't popular among the Phillies' fanbase, haha. I just don't love the player. This year's defensive improvements help, of course, but he had a huge first month of the season and has been a league-average bat since. He's an absolute menace to left-handed pitching and below-average against righties in his career.

He's a fine player for now and I'm not advocating to non-tender him or anything, but I'd just go year-to-year with him. I don't want to lock in any long-term commitments there because the main skill is pummeling lefties and everything else is just kind of average or worse.
Start over
2:07
Is Andrew Vaughn gone this offseason?
Steve Adams
2:09
I don't think they'll non-tender him. They'd be justified to do so, but not like there's anyone else clamoring for an opportunity behind him. I imagine they'll just keep the continuity. Maybe someone will have interest in trading for him, but the return would be pretty light. He's an average bat without real defensive value; a team trading for him would basically be buying low on the draft pedigree and hope their coaches, analysts, advance scouts, etc. could help turn Vaughn into the star hitter he was supposed to be coming out of the draft.
Baseball fan
2:09
is there too much emphasis on speed in pitching. We need more pitchers like Greg Maddox. The dodgers have been completely devestated with injuries
Steve Adams
2:12
If developing a pitcher with command anywhere near the vicinity of the greatest command pitcher in MLB history were as simple as "stop trying to throw so hard," I don't think guys would be so focused on velocity.

Also, not saying he'd get lit up in 2024 or anything, but a lot has changed in terms of the quality of hitters and their offensive approach since Maddux pitched. He'd probably still be great -- 80 command is 80 command -- but he wouldn't be facing pitchers in the NL, he'd be up against far fewer guys dropping down sac bunts, his opponents wouldn't be shortening up and trying to slap a single the other way on two strikes ... it's not the same game, so I don't think we can just assume everything about his career would carry over to the modern game.
Jason
2:12
lots of twins fans calling for heads to roll in the dugout and/or front office they complete this late season collapse.  personally i don't see it happening when it's ownerships payroll restrictions causing most of their problems and the front office has done a great job building up the farm system.  thoughts?
Steve Adams
2:15
That's generally my read on it, with the one caveat that I've mentioned in the past: Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were hired by Jim Pohlad, not Joe Pohlad. And Joe is running the ship now. I still expect they'll be retained, but that is one thing that at least makes me wonder a little bit.

But like you said, the farm is the best it's been in years, they're holding a WC spot late in the season despite notable injury losses for significant periods of time (Ryan, Correa, Buxton).

It'd be kind of crappy if Joe Pohlad's endgame was "You didn't build a complete team with 70% of the finances you had last season, so you're fired. Thanks for the elite farm system, by the way." But hey, it's his team to operate as he pleases.
Chris
2:15
Think anyone takes a flier on Thor?
Steve Adams
2:15
He said at some point this year he was taking the season to get healthy and try again in 2025. Someone will give him a minor league deal if he's still set on that comeback.
Grimmace
2:16
Jeremy Hefner has been a phenomenal pitching coach for the Mets and this years work with the starting staff has been on another level making Manea an ace and saving Severino’s career. At what point do people start to recognize him?
Steve Adams
2:19
He got a love of love as the Twins' bullpen coach and was swiftly scooped up as the Mets' pitching coach. I've seen plenty of love for Hefner (and offered my own praise for the work he's done).

That said, I do think this is a good opportunity to remind that Hefner alone isn't responsible for those turnarounds. He's great, and his suggestion for Manaea's bullpen sessions midseason was obviously huge. But turning pitchers around is a collaborative, organization-wide effort. All of these coaches are working with data analysts (plus the database engineers who build their analysis tools), advance scouts, biomechanics specialists, and more. Hefner is leading the operation, so absolutely he deserves a huge portion of the credit, but there are a lot of hands in success stories like these ones.
What’s the Story
2:20
Will I be opting out & away from 3yrs $77m and look for a better deal? I’ll be 32 in November. Will I be traded or is the SS job mine?
Steve Adams
2:21
His opt-out is after the 2025 season. I have a hard time seeing that happen based on how things have gone in Boston so far, but hey, if he comes back full strength and puts up a 7-WAR season or something next year, maybe it's on the table. Right now, I can't imagine that happening though.
Kraig
2:21
Do you anticipate the Detroit Tigers having a big offseason and finally opening the chequebook?
Steve Adams
2:22
Depends on your definition of "big offseason". I don't think they're going to sign Juan Soto. Could I see them in on a notable starter like Max Fried or a second-tier outfield bat like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez? Sure.
2:23
Ok folks, I've got to wrap up for the week and get back to work on a few more projects for the site. I'm on X @Adams_Steve if you have more questions.

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Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!
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