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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/20/22
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Mac
11:57
Mariners extend Castillo for 6/125 and Haniger for 3/39 and sign Bogarts for 6/180 to play second and voila, contender built and vacation earned.  Thoughts?
Steve Adams
11:58
I think you're light on the Castillo extension and on the Bogaerts contract. But as to the general framework of "Keep Castillo and Haniger, sign Bogaerts" -- sure... that'd give them a hell of a contending club for the next several years.
Walton Dilcox
11:58
I see Senga lumped in with Rodon, DeGrom, and Verlander among FA options. He doesn’t seem particularly close?
Steve Adams
12:01
I think you could call him the next-most intriguing arm after that group, but yeah I wouldn't put him on the same level as any of that bunch.

I still have to take some time to talk to scouts and get a more informed opinion on Senga in the coming weeks, so I'm not going to make any overly bold declarations just yet, but the general profile of a 30-year-old starter with a 100mph+ heater is obviously going to be appealing
Colin
12:02
Is Matt Carpenter going to get more then a 1 year deal this off-season or will he get multi year based on how he played for the Yankees?
Steve Adams
12:03
Carpenter was an amazing comeback but he'll be 37 in November and is spending considerable time on the shelf to close out the season. I think it's a one-year deal, but if he knows he wants to play multiple seasons longer, I wouldn't be outright shocked by a two-year deal or anything.
Mets
12:03
DeGrom, Nimmo, Diaz do we keep all three or does someone walk?
Steve Adams
12:04
I just can't see all three staying. I think there's a case for each topping $100MM in free agency -- I'm not personally that bullish on Nimmo, but I get the thinking -- and even for the Mets, that's going to be a lot.
NL ROY
12:06
Was watching Braves telecast last night and all the commentators picked Michael Harris over Spencer Strider for ROY because he plays everyday. This is crazy, right?
Steve Adams
12:08
I don't like the argument, but it's not uncommon. It's similar to people who say a pitcher shouldn't be the MVP because he only plays in 30-33 games of a 162-game season.

I reject those notions because I look at it on a more micro level. Yes, Strider is inherently going to appear in a smaller number of his team's total games, but he's going to impact literally every single pitch and every single plate appearance while the Braves are in the field. Harris might have four plate appearances himself and, on an active day, have five or six balls hit to him in the outfield. He has nowhere near the control over the game's outcome that Strider does when he's starting and facing 25 to 30 batters each day.
12:09
Like I said, I understand the thinking that leans toward position players, but I just don't share it. I think voting Harris over Strider is completely defensible. Both have been great. I'm still Team Strider.
Pirates Fan
12:09
Will the Buccos spend any money this offseason to fill some of the obvious holes they have on the team? An ace SP would be nice.
Steve Adams
12:10
They'll spend a little money, I'm sure, but it's not like there are many ace-caliber arms on the market, and even if there were ten of them (there aren't), I doubt Pittsburgh would spend to THAT level.
"An ace SP would be nice" applies to most teams, but you've got Verlander, deGrom, Rodon and that's about it for that caliber of pitcher in free agency.
Rob
12:11
Do you see the Brewers trading Huner Renfroe in the off-season?
Steve Adams
12:13
Could see a trade or just a non-tender. Renfroe is the type of low-OBP slugger who front offices tend not to value as highly as fans based on the raw power output (hence Renfroe being on his fourth team in four years).

He's a solid player, but by the time someone with this skill set gets into the $10-12MM range in salary -- which is where he's headed in arbitration -- it's not really a better deal than open-market pricing (at least on an annual basis)
AA
12:14
If I resign Dansby should I have Vaughn take reps in the OF or should I trade him for a SP/RP?
Steve Adams
12:17
As with the Jansen/Kirk/Moreno question earlier, I don't think it's binary like this. You can re-sign Swanson and just take an open mind toward Grissom's future. Listen on him, and sure, if a team is putting forth a high-end, controllable starter (let's say the Angels offer up Sandoval or Detmers for a package headlined by Grissom), then by all means by open to it. But you can take that approach, but underwhelmed by the offers, and then say, "OK, Vaughn you're playing left in Spring Training and possibly in Gwinnett, depending on how the Grapefruit League goes"
Mr Questions
12:17
Do you think the Rays will non-tender/trade a lot of their arb eligible players this off-season?
Steve Adams
12:18
Yeah. It's a pretty good bet annually but especially when they have 14 like they do this year. Yarbrough, Choi and Chirinos all come to mind as potential trade candidates.
Trout to Marlins
12:19
Who will hit more home runs in 2023 Jorge Soler or Franmil Reyes?
Steve Adams
12:19
I'd take Soler just because you know the contract is going to keep him on the roster.
12:20
Franmil is a non-tender candidate with the Cubs who might sign a cheap one-year deal and be cut loose in '23 if he starts slow.
Supernintendo Chalmers
12:20
What you're take on the Giants passing on Gausman, and re-signing DeSclafani instead, this past offseason? Thanks Steve.
Steve Adams
12:23
I thought at the time and continue to think the Gausman contract was a bargain. I was surprised the Giants let him go at that price. It seems as though there's a general aversion to longer-term deals, with exceptions for certain superstar rarities. (They went after Harper, for instance)

That would generally align with the philosophies we see with the Dodgers, where Zaidi was prior to taking the Giants role. I understand the reluctance to find yourself saddled with a Hosmer/Heyward type of deal or something, but especially for a team like the Giants, I don't consider the five-year term of Gausman's deal to be in that same arena.
Guest
12:23
Does Aaron Hicks have any value in trade?
Steve Adams
12:23
Nope
Pedro4eva
12:23
How come nobody is talking about John Schreiber? He's had a phenomenal season
Steve Adams
12:24
He has! He's just had a great season at a time when the AL has one of its best rookie classes in ... maybe ever?
12:26
As I type that I now realize I'm not fully certain if Schreiber qualifies. It hinges on how his 2020 season is treated. FanGraphs lists him as a rookie. B-Ref says he exceeded. Interesting. All the more reason to take a look at him, ha. But yeah, he's had a great year at a time when there are tons of great new names in the league... even among relievers (Andres Munoz, Jhoan Duran, Felix Bautista)
Appa Yip Yip
12:27
What would an Alek Manoah extension look like?
Steve Adams
12:31
Honestly, way cheaper than you'd expect, most likely. Madison Bumgarner's $35MM extension from like 10 years ago is still the record for a starting pitcher with between one and two years of service time. Manoah would have to beat that, and do so meaningfully, but the arbitration system has been really successful in terms of suppressing starting pitcher salaries. Even if you forecast pretty aggressively, it's hard to see him topping more than $40MM in arbitration earnings, sans an extension -- and that's assuming health.

So the Jays probably want the arb years cheaper than that best-case scenario -- they're committing well in advance here -- and then you tack on at least one FA year (probably only one) and at least one club option.

Sandy Alcantara just got $56MM when he had two more years of service than Manoah, and that was a record. Blake Snell needed a Cy Young to get 50MM when he had 2+ years of service
12:32
If Manoah got over 40, that's a nominal win for the union, but it's also short-changing himself so much that I doubt he'd do it. He's going to be a Super Two, he's a Cy Young candidate right now, and he already has a big ol' first-round bonus in his back pocket.
Mo's big fat trade partner
12:33
Hey Yankees, want to trade Paul De Jong for Aaron Hicks?
Steve Adams
12:34
The Yankees would absolutely love to do that. The Cardinals would not. DeJong has a $9MM salary in 2023 and then a $2MM buyout on a 2024 option and he's off the books. Hicks is owed $30.5MM total from 2023-25. The money isn't close.
Kimbrel
12:35
Am I going to doom the dodgers in the playoffs?
Steve Adams
12:35
I doubt he'll be used in the playoffs much (if at all) if they can't get him right in the final few weeks of the year.
Cards fan
12:35
Does  Verlander  get  multi  year  deal?
Steve Adams
12:36
Unless he's just feeling really nice and generous to the Astros, yeah, he's going to get multiple years. My question is if a team will go three on him, honestly. And I lean increasingly toward yes.
12:38
Alrighty -- I've got to wrap up and get some other things done for the site. Thanks, as always, for chatting -- and sorry for all the questions I can't get to in these. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve and always happy to interact there.

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Have a great week, everyone!
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