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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/23/25
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Steve Adams
8:20
Good morning! I'll get going at 1pm CT, give or take a couple minutes. As always, feel free to ask a question(s) in advance if you prefer!
12:59
Let's begin!
Kevin
12:59
Should the Phillies re-sign Harrison Bader? Brandon Marsh has regressed heavily in CF, Johan Rojas has not shown any ability to hit, and top prospect Justin Crawford is getting billed by scouts as a better fit in LF. Not many quality CF options out there.
Steve Adams
1:01
It's a fine fit, and I don't anticipate him being especially expensive -- at least not by the Phillies' standards. I do think he's been so good in Philly that he's started to price himself well beyond what my initial expectations were (something like 2/25). But even if he's pushed firmly into three-year deal territory or beyond by now, the Phils can afford that, and at minimum you know you've got a plus-plus defender who can hit lefties, while his 2025 has shown he can be substantially more than that.
Cincinnati kid.
1:01
With the reds not resigning Nick Martinez, Gavin Lux and Emilio Pagan for the 2026 season is it realistic to try to bring Kyle Schwarber on a 3 year $90 million dollar deal to be designated hitter in Cincinnati
Steve Adams
1:03
Back in April, I'd have said 3/90 for Schwarber seemed right. Heck, I shouldn't say "I *would* have said that." I did say that. But he's way beyond that now, lack of defensive value notwithstanding. He's got four years for me, probably at or even a bit north of that $30MM AAV. (Or slightly below, if someone goes nuts and stretches to like 5/140).

I think somewhere in the $120-130MM range overall though. And that will shatter precedent for a player at this age and with this lack of defensive utility, but I still expect it. Contractual precedents all fall eventually.
Meow
1:04
2-3 months back I asked what could possibly stop the run that the Tigers were on for the AL Central. You answered "The Cleveland Guardians" which seemed laughable at the time. So 1) I apologize for laughing and 2) which do you think has been more remarkable, the Tigers plummeting downwards or the Guardians surging upwards?
Steve Adams
1:04
Maybe Anthony or Mark answered that way, but I will be the first to say I did not have this type of foresight and that I'm as amazed/impressed/dumbfounded as anyone else, ha
1:06
I don't know that I'd have been completely stunned if you told me Detroit slowed down in the second half. I found their deadline astonishingly underwhelming. But the sheer magnitude of the collapse is still a surprise, so I have to give it to them
Natitude
1:06
What’s your take on Dylan Crews?  A universally highly regarded prospect with a difficult beginning to his career.  Cornerstone foundation piece or no?
Steve Adams
1:07
Toss out his first two weeks of the season and he's an above-average hitter with good batted-ball metrics and a lower-than-average strikeout rate. I think he's an everyday outfielder for Washington, and a pretty good one (health-permitting, but you can say that about any prospect)
Hunt for Reds October
1:08
You have to give the Reds kids credit for playing their hearts out even though they got no help from the front office.  That starting rotation may make it interesting if they make the postseason, don't you agree?
Steve Adams
1:09
Love their rotation and would be really excited to watch them in a postseason setting. Hunter Greene is just so good, and while Chase Burns is pitching in relief right now, that looks like such a fun 1-2 combo for the foreseeable future.

The lineup is underwhelming, though, and gives me plenty of concern for how they'd fare in a postseason setting where the baked-in off-days allow their opponents to more heavily lean on their top power arms.
Sox
1:09
Red Sox have some good young arms - Tolle, Early, Harrison. How does the rotation shake out next year? I assume Giolito will walk. Crochet and Bello at the top followed by the young guys. Do they add Valdez or someone else in free agency? Take a swing at Joe Ryan again?
Steve Adams
1:13
I think they'll take a swing at Ryan again, yes, and more broadly just be focused on adding at least one starting pitcher. Tolle, Early and Harrison (especially the former two) are a nice trio to dream on. Crochet is an ace. Bello has been very good. Patrick Sandoval will hopefully be healthy. But so much of the rest of their depth has gone down with major injuries, and you simply can't bank on a group as small as the one we just ran through staying healthy all year.

Even if they add a starter of some note -- say they sign one of Merrill Kelly, Tyler Mahle, Zach Eflin, etc. -- you can probably still get 100+ innings for each of Tolle, Early and Harrison if they all earn it with their performance. Inevitably, someone's going to need a month for a hamstring or oblique strain, or for shoulder fatigue, or something. And there's the obvious risk every team runs of something more severe wiping out a whole season for one or more of those arms.
Stevie & The Sterns
1:13
Our repeat of the "sign a value SP who will over achieve" experiment didnt prove successful the second time around. Will we finally spend on a premium arm (who's also not 45 years old)?
Steve Adams
1:16
Kodai Senga, Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Brandon Sproat, Sean Manaea, Jonah Tong, Christian Scott and Tylor Megill all still in the rotation mix for next year (maybe not Megill, depending on how the elbow progresses). David Stearns has never shelled out a long-term deal for a starting pitcher, either in Milwaukee or in two offseasons in Queens.

I won't be surprised at all if they add another starter, but I don't think they're going to throw five years at Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, etc.
Guest
1:16
*insert generic question here asking about your personal feelings about the ABS system being implemented*
Steve Adams
1:17
Good with me. Some of the changes the game has implemented over the years still irk me (free runner in extra innings, barf) -- but pitch clock, ABS, sign me up. It's frustrating watching umps get the calls wrong, and the technology to correct it is there.
Sir Nerdlington
1:18
Ever since Theo put the 'our offense broke' into the universe the Cubs offense has proven him correct every September. With the near given that Tucker lands elsewhere, where can they upgrade? Lots of very good, not great players on the offensive side of the ball.
Steve Adams
1:20
I don't think Matt Shaw has done enough to cement himself as the 3B of the future. Alex Bregman will be out there and in the Cubs' price range. Easy enough to find room for an outfielder, too. They have Happ, PCA and Suzuki heading into 2026, but Happ and Suzuki are free agents in the 2026-27 offseason and PCA's showing over the past couple months shows there's still room for improvement there, talented as he is.
MVP
1:20
End of season MVP check, Judge or Cal?
Steve Adams
1:22
I'm a Raleigh guy but it's so close that I have zero pushback for anyone who says Judge. There are some great seasons beyond that pair -- Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, Jeremy Pena -- but it has to be Judge or Cal this year. They should get all of the first- and second-place votes between them, and beyond that, I don't think there's really a "bad" choice.
Galcian
1:22
Does any team even want Arenado this winter?
Steve Adams
1:23
He's hitting .236/.290/.365. I know he's a big name with a plus glove and great contact skills, but he's making almost no impact with the bat. That contract is almost entirely underwater.
Steinbrenner's ghost
1:24
Who is my doddering son more likely to re-sign: Chisolm or Bellinger?  Or does he finally start acting like me and pay them both?
Steve Adams
1:24
Jazz is still under club control through 2026.
1:26
I can see the Yankees re-signing Bellinger, but there'll be ample competition. Might depend on the Grisham qualifying offer scenario. I think they have to make it. He feels like he'll reject, but I don't know that that's a total given, and if he accepts it becomes harder to justify throwing five years at Bellinger when you're already going to have Grisham, Judge, Dominguez, Stanton and (eventually) Spencer Jones in the OF mix -- with other needs to address elsewhere on the roster.
Cherrington
1:26
Ashcraft, Chandler, Jones, Skenes, now Barco. Sure seems like Bucs could deal a pitcher for a bat.
Steve Adams
1:27
Plus Keller, Oviedo, Burrows, Harrington and this year's top pick, Seth Hernandez. Probably some other minor league arms I'm blanking on.
Yes, they should trade an arm for a bat or bats.
1:28
And that's coming from the guy who routinely opines that there's no such thing as a "surplus" in MLB
Skenes 4 MVP
1:29
why isn’t skenes in the conversation for mvp?  he has a higher WAR than Ohtani.
Steve Adams
1:31
In general, pitchers should get more love in MVP voting, I agree. (Zack Wheeler was the 2021 NL MVP, hard stop.)

But while WAR isn't a perfect stat, Skenes doesn't even have more than Ohtani there. Shohei has 7+ fWAR just as a hitter, plus another 1-2 fWAR or RA9-WAR for pitching. If you go strictly by Baseball-Reference's version, Skenes has a 0.1 lead on Ohtani, but that's beyond negligible, and I think the uniqueness of Ohtani's contributions makes him a pretty clear winner.
1:32
But yeah, Skenes will eventually have a season where he should absolutely be the MVP, and it'll probably get overlooked. I dislike the manner in which pitchers are just written off in MVP consideration unless they're having some comically historic season.
MLBTR Fan
1:32
Steve, I sense that you are probably a picky eater for some reason. Are you just a "plain cheese" kinda pizza guy??
Steve Adams
1:33
I'll eat almost anything, but hey, nothing wrong with a cheese pizza. Not my preference, but if you put it in front of me right now, sure. (Well .. if you put it in front of me an hour ago. I've already eaten lunch now. But I digress)
Binky
1:33
Ohio World Series coming soon  - Reds vs Guardians.
Steve Adams
1:33
This would rule. MLB would hate it, but sign me the hell up for a weird WS matchup that no one saw coming.
STL frustrated
1:33
Arenado can still be valuable. Decent pickup if DeWitt is willing to eat 30-40% of the money, which is kind of doubtful since they have taken up the Pittsburgh Miami Tampa spending philosophy.
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