Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/29/21
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Steve Adams
2:02
Greetings all -- sorry to do the chat a day late. My day yesterday was largely dedicated to the final stages of our latest hiring wave at  MLBTR. We'll go for an hour today though!
Tyler O'Neill
2:02
With this incredible run, do you see a possibility we take down SF/LAD in a 1 game playoff?
Steve Adams
2:04
It's a one-game playoff. They'd have had a chance at beating SF or LAD if they limped into the postseason with a 4-16 record in their past 20 games.

Jay Jaffe has written on this many times in the past and, I believe, did so recently or is planning to do so soon over at FanGraphs, but historically speaking, there's no real correlation between September momentum and October play.

Yes, the Rockies had that one magic run, but that's more an isolated incident than any sort of norm that should be expected.

Anyhow, the Cards are a fine team, and the Giants and Dodgers aren't impervious to losing. Sure they have a chance.
Tigers
2:05
Prediction on our offseason? Please tell me we spend on one of correa/seager/story.
Steve Adams
2:08
I expect them to spend on a big-name free agent or two, though even the Tigers can't know right now if they'll get one of those three specific shortstops. Baez and Semien are out there, too, and if they don't land one of the shortstops there are plenty of other marquee names both in the outfield and in the rotation.

It's a lot to expect a team that's been rebuilding for near five years to cannonball into free agency and sign one of the top names, like Correa or Seager. They have to convince those free agents they're ready to win right now.

Hinch probably helps, with regard to Correa, though. And we do see big free agents sign with up-and-coming teams. (Machado/Padres)

I just wouldn't pin my hopes on those three specifically.
It'll be a more fun offseason for Tiger fans than you've seen in awhile, at least.
CDOG
2:09
Is the Trout man still the best player in baseball?
Steve Adams
2:09
His own teammate might have a stronger case at this point.
AJ Preller
2:10
What's my plan this offseason after this disappointing season? Do I stand mostly pat and make under the radar depth boosting moves or do I go for broke?
Steve Adams
2:10
Trade deadline notwithstanding, I've never looked at Padres president AJ Preller and expected him to "stand pat." I would expect another active winter and some turnover both in the dugout and on the field.
Waino
2:11
Am I in the conversation for the Cy, or has Max already locked it down?
Steve Adams
2:13
I don't think Scherzer has it locked down, but I also don't think Wainwright is a threat to him. He'll get some down-ballot votes. Corbin Burnes, Walker Buehler, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff all spring to mind as more viable candidates than Wainwright (who has had a great season, to be clear)
Marcelo Rodrigues - After Home Plate
2:13
Good afternoon Adams! I'm from After Home Plate here in Brazil, and I saw a little on MLBTR that the Padres may be releasing Pham to the open market, due to what happened to him this season, couldn't he win another chance with a smaller contract?
Steve Adams
2:13
Huh, that's weird that it published like that.
Here's the question so people don't have to scroll
2:14
"Good afternoon Adams! I'm from After Home Plate here in Brazil, and I saw a little on MLBTR that the Padres may be releasing Pham to the open market, due to what happened to him this season, couldn't he win another chance with a smaller contract?"
The Padres aren't releasing Pham. He's reached six years of service time and is a natural free agent at the end of the season as a result.
2:15
He could certainly get another look on a smaller contract, but he's earned the right to negotiate with all 29 other teams.

Thank you for reading down in Brazil!
BabyYodaPenguins
2:15
Anything I should look forward too for my Texas Rangers in the next few years besides Garcia... or should I just be focusing on my Penguins (fav hockey team) for the next year or two?  I'm guessing 2023 season is early for my Rangers to have any reasonable .500 or so record
Steve Adams
2:16
GM Chris Young has already said they plan to be "very active" in free agency this winter. Josh Jung is probably up next year.
Ruban Amaro
2:17
You think the Mariners can actually sneak past the Sox in this last week?  Guess that's the last real opening up for grabs.
Steve Adams
2:18
They're playing well -- few losses in either Boston or New York and they could still squeak in there. I'm hoping they do, honestly, just because it'd make for a fun story. I don't really care whose expense it comes at -- it's not an anti-Sox or anti-Yankees thing -- it's just fun to see a new team in the playoffs after so long. Especially such a young one.
Nolan Arenado
2:18
Opt-out or stays?
Steve Adams
2:19
He's said multiple times he plans to stay. I don't have any reason to doubt it when the man himself has basically said as much on record.
Mr. Ricketts
2:19
Steve, since we don't currently have a GM in place, I'm giving you $80MM this offseason to spend however you'd like on this Cubs team. What are your initial thoughts on how you might try to spend that money?
Steve Adams
2:22
The Cubs have a president of baseball operations in place: Jed Hoyer. The lack of someone possessing the "GM" title isn't really indicative of much. A GM would be working under Hoyer anyhow, as Hoyer worked under Epstein.

I don't think the Cubs will spend $80MM this offseason, and I don't think they're $80MM worth of free agents away from contending.

Off the cuff, I'd sign two mid-tier starting pitchers, wait to see which infielders are squeezed out in the market and bail them out late (a few 2Bs and 1Bs are always left stranded), and sign some cheap one-year relievers who can be flipped at the deadline.

They won't be that aggressive, though.
Nationals Lane
2:23
Lane Thomas has looked good since coming over...does he stay a starter for '22?
Steve Adams
2:23
No reason he shouldn't get that opportunity there. Thomas has a track record in the upper minors and never got a real look with the Cardinals. I was pretty surprised they moved him for a half season of a struggling Jon Lester.

Lester's helped stabilize the Cards' rotation, so hey, kudos to them, but in the long run I liked the move for the Nats.
Cardinals
2:24
Who are some of the bullpen free agents this offseason?
Steve Adams
We have a list of the next two free-agent classes linked on the sidebar of the desktop version of MLBTR at pretty much all times.
Reds
2:24
does Nick opt out  what would he get on the open market
Steve Adams
2:25
Yes, and I think he'll be able to find five years at $20MM or more, especially if the DH comes to the National League
Minny Fan
2:25
Is Rocco on the hot seat (I don't blame him for the Twins slide)?  I can't see any big name free agent pitchers coming to Target Field - I'm hoping some trades are made this off season.
Steve Adams
2:27
Nope, he's not. It's been one bad year ... calls for the ousting of the front office and manager are going to be met with disappointment by whoever is making them.

The Twins will have money to spend, and if they offer the most money to a Gausman, Stroman, etc. -- they're going to take it. I doubt they outbid the field for one of them, but I do expect them to sign at least one notable starter and probably trade for another.
JD Martinez
2:27
Am I eligible for a QO?
Steve Adams
2:27
If he opts out, yes, he would be.
Grayson
2:28
It doesn't look like there will be as many manager openings this offseason than years past. Agree?
Steve Adams
2:30
I agree... I could see maybe three or so jobs opening up? It'll be more quiet on that front than in some recent winters where 5-6 teams have been searching simultaneously.
Ben Cherrington
2:30
will anyone on my payroll make over $10 million in 2022?
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