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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/6/22
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Steve Adams
12:18
I don't think so. Prospects are a crapshoot, and Stanton's contract was always going to weigh down his return. Of course Yelich+Stanton SHOULD have gotten more. And it did get more in terms of at-that-time-value. Brinson alone probably had more value than the entire Ozuna return.

But player development is hard. Prospects bust. A lot. It's why I'm generally team "Just trade the kid" -- especially pitchers. How many trades did we hear about where the Astros wouldn't give up Forrest Whitley? Yankees and Deivi Garcia? Marlins and Sixto Sanchez? Etc.
12:20
Obviously it's not a blanket statement, and there's more nuance to it than that. But in general, prospects are SO overvalued. People tend to forget more about the guys you refused to trade when they just sort of fade away, but EVERYONE remembers if you trade a kid who becomes a star.
Red Sox
12:21
With so many holes to fill, do you see a path to the playoffs next season or will they ‘tank’ 2023 while their best prospects develop for a 2024 & beyond run?
Steve Adams
12:22
They won't tank. I'd imagine lots of short-term moves and a diversified risk portfolio (tons of one- and two-year pickups) where if enough things break right, they'll be back in the mix.
Guest
12:24
About your previous answers, do you see teams getting more comfortable in parting with high rated prospects?
Steve Adams
12:25
I think it's moving in the other direction. It's so rare to see teams give up top-ranked prospects  now. Front offices are obsessed with efficiency, and there's nothing more efficient than a superstar you can control at a fraction of market value for six years (or longer, if they sign a Braves-y extension)
Mo
12:25
Ozuna was a crap trade for me, but Goldie and Arenado make up for it no?
Steve Adams
12:25
Yeah, I mean every GM/president has trades they'd like back -- especially once you get into guys who've had the gig as long as Mozeliak has in St. Louis.
Guest
12:26
So clearly the Yankees should have traded Aaron Judge before he made the majors.
Steve Adams
12:26
Maybe? What would they have gotten in return? If it was someone who provided immense short-term value and helped them to a World Series in 2017-18, OK.
12:28
Judge is like a 99th percentile outcome for a prospect. It's what everyone's afraid of trading, of course. But Judge is also better than anyone expected him to be, which is a credit to him, and the fact that a very small percentage of prospects turn into superstars shouldn't be a blanket cautionary tale against trading ANY top prospect.
12:30
Baseball America ranked seven Yankees among MLB's top 100 in the year leading into Judge's debut. He was 90th. The other six: Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Blake Rutherford, Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, Justus Sheffield.
Jay
12:30
Does Chaim Bloom realize that Starting Pitchers in the AL East can’t be the bargain bin ones? I mean Wacha is a suprise but everyone else? Is Boston a big player on the SP market?
Steve Adams
12:33
The Rays habitually make rotations out of bargain options. The Red Sox made the wrong bets on the wrong one-year options, but suggesting that no bargain pitcher can thrive in the AL East is inherently flawed.

I think Boston will be involved in the SP market, yes, but as for beating out the field for Justin Verlander or something, I wouldn't go that far. And Carlos Rodon just feels like a lot of risk for them when they're already crossing their fingers on Sale.
Guest
12:33
How come there aren't more two-way players? As in, why did it take 100 years to get an Ohtani-esque player? Is he just that special?
Steve Adams
12:35
It is hard enough to become MLB-caliber at one aspect of the game. You're talking two entirely different skill sets for pitching and hitting. To be 99th percentile in the world at both is just incalculably difficult. He is that special.

We've seen plenty of guys try to be two-way players. I mean hell, people used to bristle when I'd say I welcomed the universal DH because "Madison Bumgarner is a great hitter." That was the threshold for being a good-hitting pitcher ... batting like .170/.250/.330 but popping out a few homers a season.

Ohtani is just an anomaly and I love him for it.
James Paxton
12:36
If Boston declines the (2) $13M options of Paxton, any chance he’ll exercise his $4M player option or will he test free agency?
Steve Adams
12:36
I can't see anyone giving Paxton more than $4MM guaranteed, but I suppose maybe he'll decline it if he A) Just wants a change of scenery and B) Wants a contract that has a larger incentives structure.
12:37
There is zero chance the Red Sox pick up their options by the way. I saw some recent speculation on that among Boston beat writers, but it is just so far outside the realm of possibility, to me.
John
12:37
Is Rodon out of the Orioles faux-budget?
Steve Adams
12:39
The Orioles haven't spent money in like four years and have no money on next year's books. They can "afford" anyone they want. It's more a question of whether they want to, before they get real, full-season looks at Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Gunnar Henderson, etc. etc. put down a nine-figure investment of a player with Rodon's injury history.

If some of their prospects stumble in 2023 and Rodon ends up in injury hell, then your long-term outlook is suddenly nowhere near as rosy.

I think the O's will spend this year, but more on mid-tier free agents who can raise the team's floor than on the top-of-market guys.
Guest
12:40
Who is AL Cy Young for you if Verlander doesn't return until playoffs? Do you see a similarity to last year's NL race with the innings difference?
Steve Adams
12:41
Depends on how quickly McClanahan returns and how well he pitches when he does. Dylan Cease is becoming more and more viable, though, and Framber Valdez's season isn't getting enough attention
12:42
Alek Manoah, too. Verlander/McClanahan injuries have opened the field up quite a bit.
Joshua
12:42
With Josh Bell's struggles in San Diego, what do you think his upcoming contract will look like? Thanks.
Steve Adams
12:45
I was always kind of the "low guy" on Bell on the MLBTR team when we talked contracts. I was more in the Schwarber range (70-80 over four years) even back when he was raking. He was still a legitimately excellent hitter from May 2021 through this year's deadline, so I think the interest will be strong ... but if he really flops enough in San Diego you start getting down into three-year deal territory, and then you're wondering whether he starts trying to get an opt-out in there to give him another bite at a big contract. In which case... the opt out further weighs down the guarantee.
Guest
12:45
Benches clear who’s winning a Cole/Manoah throw down.. or better yet Judge/Manoah
Steve Adams
12:45
Manoah's going to have John Smoltz in his ear telling him when to duck. Hard to compete with that.
Brown
12:46
Hunter brown did you get to watch him pitch yesterday the side by side with jv was pretty cool
Steve Adams
12:47
I did not get to see him, unfortunately. I plan to go back and watch the highlights and hope to be able to catch a future performance.
Aaron
12:47
Lots of fans complain that their team can’t develop prospects. However, it’s likely they ignore their team’s successes and don’t compare their team’s track records to the rest of the league. But are there any teams that you notice are particularly weak in player development?
Steve Adams
12:48
I wrote this in my post on Jon Daniels getting dismissed in Texas:

"That difficulty regarding player development wasn’t unique to the organization’s very best prospects, either. Rather, Texas’ ability to develop big leaguers through the draft has simply stalled out in recent years. Incredibly, not one member of the Rangers’ 2018-21 draft classes has reached the Majors yet. Dating back to 2016, right-hander Joe Barlow is the only player drafted by the Rangers to produce even 1.0 wins above replacement in the Majors."
The Cubs have been terrible at developing starting pitchers until finally getting a pair of decent seasons out of Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson when they were already 27.
12:49
The Twins have been very bad at it, too, though we're really only at the point right now where we can expect to start seeing the fruits of this front office's efforts in that regard. If they still haven't developed a decent pitcher (ideally several) within the next couple years, that has to be considered a failure by the Falvey/Levine regime
Clevinger
12:50
Would I join Carter Hawkins in Chicago if Jed called?
Steve Adams
12:51
If the Cubs offer the most money. The Cleveland connection isn't going to be a huge selling point though. Tons of front offices are led by former Cleveland execs. They're always getting hired away. Falvey in MN and Atkins in TOR, for instance, were both in Cleveland at the same time as Clevinger.
Judge
12:51
Will I break $400 million
Steve Adams
12:51
I don't think so, given his age. I'm at something like 8/300 right now, but the more he keeps mashing the more you keep wondering how high the bidding will go.
AA
12:52
Have you discussed with the staff what kind of deal Dansby Swanson gets? He is so hard to profile.
Steve Adams
12:54
Anthony Franco is sending out an article on this exact topic to our Front Office subscribers today, ha. I won't give his entire thing away, but I think there are multiple recent comparables that make sense and do think nine figures is reasonable to expect.

On that note.... I've got to wrap up for the week. Thanks, as always, for chatting -- and sorry for all the questions I can't get to in these. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve if you're so inclined and always happy to take more questions there.

You can also consider signing up for our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which (among other things) grants you access to a weekly subscriber-only chat and email mailbag, and your odds of getting a question answered in those arenas is obviously much higher. Subscribers also get ad-free viewing, weekly email articles from Anthony and myself, exclusive fantasy baseball advice from Brad Johnson, autograph giveaways and more.
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