Christopher Carter's Steelers chat: 07.02.26
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Christopher Carter
11:02
Alright! It's Thursday before the holiday weekend. Let's get into it!
Marvin P
11:02
Good morning Chris.  What’s your outlook on what we should expect from this year’s team?  I’m excited thinking the offense won’t be nearly as conservative as in years past.  Not sure what to think of the defense yet.  Is it too early for you to predict a playoff appearance and a playoff victory?
Christopher Carter
11:05
Good morning Marvin!

As a roster, I think this team continued the climb it's been steadily working towards for the past few years. While the offensive line develops, the receiver room has improved and they replaced a useful RB with anothere useful RB.

I do fully anticipate the offense will be more aggressive than it has been for years under Mike McCarthy, and that could yield positive results with the talent they've added.

In fact, I'll also have an analysis piece where I've been doing some deep diving on McCarthy's offensive tendencies, trends of recent elite offenses and Steelers offenses to show a key difference that I think fans will see right away this season.

Also, agreed on the defense. I think there's potential for them to return to being a top 10 unit like they routinely were before last year. But need to see more before I commit to that.
11:08
As a team, I do think this is a roster that can win 11 games, make the playoffs, and win a playoff game with the right matchup. Heck, if they had the receiver talent of this team last year, they probably do beat the Texans when you think back to how little Austin/MVS/Thielen were able to help in a game that was 7-6 in the fourth quarter. As long as they make it and avoid a juggernaut in the early rounds, I'd like this team's chances.
Bones
11:08
Good morning Chris. Doesn't it make sense to use the franchise tag on JPJ next year? Something they should have done with TJW.
Christopher Carter
11:11
Good morning!

I don't think so. I don't believe Joey Porter Jr. is looking for the most money in the NFL at CB right now and they'll settle somewhere around $28M/year -- which is what you pay for shutdown cornerbacks. They can afford that and lock him up long term.

Also, if they tagged him and then he blew up for a season, he'd probably be more expensive. With his low interception numbers right now, I think Omar Khan will want to get this deal done during training camp.

And from everything I've heard, that's the expectations of both sides. Been saying this for months now: wouldn't be shocked if Porter "holds in" for a week or so of camp, signs a big deal, then returns and it's a morale boost for the team.
Soggy
11:11
Good Morning Chris.  There is a lot of hype around RS Jennings. I know he has blazing speed and showed well thus far at team activities, but he was a 7th round pick.  What were some of the reasons he lasted until the 7th & what do you think the odds are he makes the final 53?  Thanks for the chats & Happy 4th.
Christopher Carter
11:19
Good morning!

Did a film study on Robert Spears-Jennings last week that talked about this!

I don't think there's any undue hype about him. It's just that he's a 7th round pick with size and speed and that could be a useful utility to have on special teams.

He lasted that late in the draft because he wasn't strong in coverage. While he'd make solid plays on the ball when everything was kept in front of him, he wasnt a good defensive back in man coverage and looked slow in his processing of route concepts to know when and how to jump routes as a safety.

But as a late round special teams player who could grow on those skills, that's not all that bad. He'll need to make the team helping on punt and kick coverage, which was what he did to become a starter at Oklahoma. If he stands out on special teams over guys like Sebastian Castro and Jack Henderson, he'll make the team. If not, practice squad.
Scott via Louisville
11:19
I’d think a good virtual reality program would be good to train players where to throw, who to cover, and recognizing plays. Seeing it and practicing over and over without the physical demands seems like a good strategy. Is there any of that used by the Steelers?
Christopher Carter
11:21
That's not something I've heard that the Steelers do. They watch film and go through the walkthroughs on the field based off what they see there to simulate things before taking it to live speed action.

The only player I know of that does that on a consistent basis is Jayden Daniels, and that's because he was used to doing that at LSU and asked the Commanders to build him a similar system. But I do think it's an idea more teams could get behind in the future.

It's also something that would be harder to program probably for position players than it would a quarterback as the QB would be in the pocket and things can more easily be designed around them compared to a random receiver or defender who has to move a lot more.
GM
11:21
Hi CC...thanks for these chats! I think Omar and company have done a great job making every position group more competitive and I expect to see an intense training camp to make the team. What do you see as some of the key battles to make the team and  which players that will make successful impact on the upcoming season?
Christopher Carter
11:26
Hello!

It's July so we can start to gear up for some camp battles.

I'll give you 3:

WR: Germie Bernard vs Roman Wilson. Bernard has the inside track as the shiny new 2nd round pick but Wilson isn't going to let it be easy. He knows he needs to impress if he wants a future that's not just a cheap contract somewhere after his rookie deal is done. Could be interesting to see if they push each other.

OT: Broderick Jones vs Dylan Cook. The main reason this is a battle is because of Jones' injury. With the way he was playing before he got injured, that would've been more than enough for him to get a fith-year extension.  But with how serious this injury was, we're not sure when he'll be back and if he'll be back to full strength. That gives time for Dylan to ... Cook.

Backup CB: The starting outside CBs are set with Joey Porter Jr. and Jamel Dean and Jalen Ramsey's the slot. But who's the top outside guy off the bench? Asante Samuel Jr. and Brandin Echols probably battle it out there.
Daniel
11:26
Considering he lasted until the 7th round, do you think they'll be able to stash Eli Heidenreich on the practice squad or will someone take a chance on him (I know hard to tell without seeing what he does in preseason)?
Christopher Carter
11:28
Yeah, tough to say what will happen with him at this stage. I think his best ticket to make the final 53 is find roles on special teams. He could beat out Kaden Wetjen at returner, and personally I like him as a receiving threat more too.

Seeing as he was a 7th round pick, I find it hard to believe another team would cut a player coming out of camp to add him to their roster. So it's safe to say he'd probably make the practice squad if it came to that. But, who knows? Maybe he lights it up in preseason and all of that changes.
PBW BK
11:28
Hey Chris. In light of your article yesterday about Eli H I got to thinkings of some shifty undersized great slot receivers like Edelman. Always wanted one of those. If he improved his route running could you see him developing into one possibly. And as your fond of saying….thanks for being here.
Christopher Carter
11:32
Hello! Thanks for being here! (lol)

Julian Edelman was a heck of a route runner for the Patriots with a bit different of a profile. He was slower with a 4.52-second 40-yard dash but excelled at the 3-cone drill to show off his agility  -- a drill Eli Heidenreich didn't test in for the combine.

I think Heidenreich's a bit different. He's bigger, faster and works differently. But, it also took Edelman five years before he even got to 400 receiving yards in a season. So if Heidenreich hangs around long enough, maybe he develops a skill set that makes him look different enough that he's a more complete playmaker -- whether that's closer to Edelman or anyone else.
Chuck from Michigan
11:32
Hi Chris, always enjoy your analyses. Steelers should take a pass on extending JPJ.  I contend that Brian Branch would have been a better selection at the time.  JPJ is not a top 5 DB, and Steelers should let him walk if his 2026 performance is not “Top 5.”  Your thoughts.  Thanks.
Christopher Carter
11:40
Hello and thanks Chuck!

I actually think this is where Joey Porter Jr. is undervalued. I would've agreed with you about Branch before 2025, but not after last year.

Branch got ate up last year allowing 4 TDs with 0 INTs and a passer rating of 119.3 when he was targeted. He's allowed 12 TDs in his career so far.

Porter's only TD allowed in his career came during his rookie season before he was even a starter. Since being a starter, nobody has scored on him. Last year, his passer rating allowed just beat out that of Christian Gonzalez and was just behind Quinyon Mitchell.

Porter doesn't have the interceptions (3) like Branch does (7), but he's a shutdown cornerback while Branch is a safety who hasn't erased people the same way.

And you pay shutdown cornerbacks.

Also, if you're worried about penalties, both he and Branch were called for 9 last year. That's as many as elite cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and less than another highly paid cornerback in Jaycee Horn.

They'll pay Porter, the right move.
Rob
11:41
Hey Chris, as always, thank you for your thoughtful and illuminating articles and chats!

In his article about McCarthy’s history with the 3-4 D, Gerry stated:

“LeBeau was the last vestige of the original 3-4 defense installed by Cowher and Capers. Since LeBeau’s departure, the Steelers have ranked in the top five in defense just once.”

You always have such balanced, fact-based answers, I’m hoping you can you help me (all of us) understand the change from the “original 3-4 defense”, and subsequent dearth of a “top five” defenses after LeBeau left.

Was there a decided change in Tomlin’s 3-4 philosophy? Did NFL offenses change and Tomlin was too slow to pivot? Was it more about the lack of high caliber players? Some combination of the above?
Christopher Carter
11:46
Hey Rob! Thanks for being here!

You asked a few things here so I'll do my best to condense down to an answer that strikes most of what you're getting at.

Gerry's right that the Steelers were at one point the last defense still regularly using the 3-4 in the early 2000s and led to a resurgence of its use in the mid-late 2000s. But they have ranked as a top 5 defense multiple times since LeBeau left. They ranked 5th in yards allowed in 2017 and 2019 and 3rd in yards allowed in 2020. They also ranked 5th in points allowed in 2019 and 3rd in points allowed in 2020.

Now, that's nothing like when they had the run with Tomlin and LeBeau together when they first got started in 2007.
11:54
From 2007-2012, there was only one year (2009 whe Troy Polamalu was hurt) where they weren't ranked as the #1 defense in either points or yards allowed.

Read that last sentence again. They were literally the best defense in the NFL in points or yards allowed in five of six seasons. That's insane. And in four of those six seasons, they were either #1 in both categories or #1 in one category while being #2 in another.

That's a stretch that not even the 70s Steelers had. The 70s Steelers were #1 in points allowed in 1976 and 1978, and were #1 in yards allowed in 1974 and 1976. Now, that doesn't mean they were better than those defenses because numbers in different eras vary.

But the point that those numbers show is that the defense was truly elite in those early years between LeBeau and Tomlin. And that wasn't a carryover from Cowher's teams' either. The defense ranked #1 in 2004, but ranked outside the top 10 in 2006 and 2004 was the only Cowher defense that was #1 in points allowed.
11:58
When LeBeau moved on, Tomlin and Keith Butler kept a lot of the same shells and philosophies but got more aggressive in certain areas like the pass rush.

What led to them not recreating the magic of the LeBeau years was a combination of two things in my opinion:

1) Tomlin's following defensive coordinators could dial up complexities in the front or the secondary, but not both at the same time like LeBeau.

2) The personnel was just never as complete as the late 2000s teams.

Butler was great at creating one-on-one pass rush reps for their top pass rushers and getting to the QB. The Steelers are the only franchise in NFL history to lead the NFL in sacks for 5 straight seasons, and that was a product of Butler's plans. But they also lacked in coverage, which led to the promotion of Teryl Austin.

Austin helped make the coverage better, but wasn't as much of a coordinator who could dial the front up like Butler did.
12:07
LeBeau's defensive genius to me has always been about how he combined the complexities of both the defensive front and the secondary in artistic ways that made it difficult to predict what they were doing while also keying up the stars for big plays.

Heck, the Spygate investigation ESPN did back in the day indicated a lot of what the Patriots did was to focus on and crack the Steelers' defensive signals and codes because it was so complex.

Well, I didn't really condense my answer, but I hope it gave you enough of my perspective on that question.

I'll also maintain this: that's where Ryan Shazier's career-ending injury changed the course of history. The Steelers had the #4 defense in 2017 in both points and yards allowed going into the week he got injured.

They ranked 19th in yards allowed and 21st in points allowed after that. On the year, they ranked 7th in points allowed and 5th in yards.

If Shazier stays healthy, they're definitely a top 5 unit that year and stood a much better chance in the playoffs.
And Shazier with prime Watt, Fitzpatrick, Heyward, Tuitt, Haden and Nelson? That would've been another defense with a chance to get to be #1.
12:08
Alright, enough about that.
J D
12:08
Chris, with the new coaching staff to include new OC and DC, what will the team need to do that prepares them for the season such as:  play more snaps in the pre-season, practice longer with more repetitions, have more study sessions, or have more days at Kennywood!
Christopher Carter
12:10
Well they can certainly invite the reporters along for their Kennywood trips and that would certainly help!

But being serious, I think one thing McCarthy's made clear is he's trying to strike a new tone with how practices go. Doesn't seem like there will be 7 shots or backs on backers. But there will be their own practices and rigid changes that set up a new pace. What will those be? We'll find out at Saint Vincent College.
JDog
12:12
Chris, if the Steelers resign JPJ, as most people expect, who is the next priority?  Benton?  PQ?  Are they gonna have the cap room to resign anyone else after JPJ’s new deal?  Thanks!
Christopher Carter
12:13
I think the next priority of guys due this year has to be Benton. This team needs another young defensive lineman to help carry the torch for whenever Heyward retires or simply falls off in production. You don't want to have a situation where it's just Harmon leading that group.
Realist
12:13
Do you think K. Johnson will make the team?
Christopher Carter
12:15
I actually think Kaleb Johnson is one of the players who technically should've been safe this year but is in the most danger.

If he doesn't learn how to help on special teams, it's going to be tough to just reserve a roster spot for a running back who's just there in case someone gets injued. Meanwhile, Eli Heidenreich, Riley Nowakowski and Travis Homer are all guys who are going to try and help in those spots.

I think Johnson makes it, but he has work to do.
GreenfieldGorillas
12:16
Saw your comment about how I was misunderstanding the safety use. Patrick actually intends to be more traditional, with two safeties back in deep coverage. my question is this will we see three down lineman with attacking sign linebackers like Don capers or is this gonna be more of Terrell Austin and Mike Tomlin sub packages which get destroyed by the running game
Christopher Carter
12:22
Different coaches will deploy things based on their personnel. Graham used a 4-3 defense at the second highest rate of any defense last year at 42% of his total snaps.

But the #1 defense and Super Bowl champion Seahawks pretty much lived in nickel and dime all season. They also ranked 3rd in overall rushing yards allowed and 1st in yards per rush allowed.

It's less about the design of the fronts and more about the talent you have and where you put them.

When Derrick Harmon was in, the Steelers allowed 3.5 yards per rush -- which was better than the #1 Seahawks. When he wasn't, they allowed 4.5 yards per rush -- which would've ranked 25th in the NFL.

Maybe they just need the key starters up front to be healthy and they'll stuff the run.
Pittfan
12:22
Hi Christopher. Two questions. If Castro and Spears-Jennings perform well does that make Ramsey tradeable or a cut candidate? And, can Eli be a replacement for Ben S? He’s younger, can probably play special teams and gives more diversity on offense.
Christopher Carter
12:24
Hello!

Nope. No part of them playing well makes Ramsey expendable. Expect Ramsey to be back in more of a slot cornerback role this year, and neither of those guys impact that.

Eli Heidenreich could be a replacement for Ben Skowronek, maybe. But Skowronek was very helpful on special teams and developed a rapport with Aaron Rodgers. So, that might not be easy to replace. I think Heidenreich's real competition is Kaden Wetjen.
Ryan
12:24
chris what do you think about Payton Wilson becoming special teams captain i think either him or Skrownek should be the captain happy fourth Of July Chris
Christopher Carter
12:25
I think Payton Wilson could do that if they put him there, but I think his bigger role needs to be helping more with communications at linebacker. And for what it's worth, he said that's a big goal for himself this year too.
DC
12:26
Hi Chris, whats the weekend schedule for the players for a normal 1pm kickoff at home?  Are they still staying in a hotel the night before?  I'm assuming meetings the night before then a team breakfast and then catch the busses to Acrisure?
Christopher Carter
12:26
Hello!

From what I understand, that's pretty much the process. We'll see if that changes under McCarthy though.
Tom M.
12:27
Glad to see you’re holding down the Chat fort while the others are taking a break. You had a good film study of Heidenreich. Is he competing for a spot with Wetjen and how would you compare the two?
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