Colin Beazley's Pirates chat: 09.08.26
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Colin Beazley
12:00
Hello and happy Tuesday. Hope everyone was able to enjoy the long weekend. First September chat, so looking forward to answering all of your questions before the Pirates begin six games in Chicago tonight. Let's get rolling...
Martian
12:01
Good morning Colin. Do you see any world where the pirates retain Lowe? Or even try to?
Colin Beazley
12:04
Good morning, Martian. Guess it's officially afternoon now that I'm answering this, but thanks for getting your question in early.

I'll start by saying I haven't heard anything regarding Lowe, though that doesn't mean there haven't been efforts. Simply means I don't have something to report there. I do expect the Pirates to try to bring him back, but I've also always expecting Brandon Lowe to want to test free agency. This is the first time he has that opportunity, and it'll also be the biggest payday he receives in his career, so why not see what's out there?

I think Lowe will be paid well in free agency, but I also think it'll be something the Pirates could afford to match. Won't put a percentage on it, but I think there's a chance he's retained.
JD from FLA
12:04
I’m a life long pirates fan for over 60 years. I really want to like Don Kelly but some of his lineups make no sense to me. Horowitz may be the slowest guy on the team so why is he batting leadoff. To me it’s a no brainer to hit Mangum leadoff. He is the prototypical leadoff hitter. He is fundamentally sound with speed and he’s a switch hitter. What am I missing.
Show dog
12:04
18 games left, let’s hope for a 14-4 record and shock those non believers! However we can’t do it with Horwitz as our lead off batter. He needs to sit and get ready for ‘27.
PhilinCT
12:05
Mr. Beazley, thanks for taking our rantings. While the Pirates still have a chance (albeit small), why is Horwitz batting leadoff? Since coming back from injury he is batting around 0.170. I'm not saying bench him by any means (necessarily) but when Triolo looks like a better option at the top of the order (which I also don't like) things need to change. I recognize the options, but still... Thanks.
Colin Beazley
12:09
Thank you, Mr. PhilinCT. Happy to be here.

I can't say I understand Spencer Horwitz hitting leadoff, either. I asked Don Kelly about this on Saturday, and the paraphrased answer was they like Horwitz's ability to get on base; he was arguably their best hitter last year; and they're working to get him back on track. Not sure I understand the first point, given Horwitz has an OBP of .234 since returning and all of one extra-base hit.

I like Horwitz as a leadoff man when he is hitting, as he is one of the Pirates' best hitters, I like some power, and he does walk a good bit. But right now, he simply isn't right. Doesn't seem like anyone has the answers to get him back right now. I'd bet his playtime will shrink when O'Hearn is back.
12:11
As for Mangum batting leadoff, I want someone who walks more. Should be someone who gets on base, regardless of speed. I like Griffin there against left-handers. Cruz? Nick Gonzales? Gonzales doesn't walk, but he is someone you want up at the plate.
Show dog
12:11
At this point we just need to trade Keller even for international money. The facts on him do not lie! Use the money for a number 5 starter. That at best is what Keller is today!
Colin Beazley
12:13
Mitch Keller was an All-Star in 2023. Up until this year, he's been a reliable innings eater. Pirates could certainly use one right now. At this point, I doubt teams would be lining up to take on his full contract. He's probably worth more as a bet to get back to normal than as a trade chip.

Of course, the Pirates could certainly find a use for his salary if he were off the books.
Lab2inWhitney
12:13
After the work stoppage is over, ....what is the starting lineup Opening Day...2027?
Colin Beazley
12:14
Ooh, this is a fun one. I'm going to operate under a no-cap system, mostly because I don't want to spend the entire time of this chat deciding who's a free agent, who isn't, and what the Pirates have to get their salaries to. Standby...
12:19
What we probably know:
SP - Skenes
C - ?
1B - O'Hearn/Horwitz
2B - ?
SS - Griffin
3B - ?
LF - Reynolds
CF - Cruz
RF - Valdez

As for the question marks, I'll guess no on Lowe (though they really should). That'll have Nick Gonzales as my starting second baseman. For the other two, I'll say Tyler Stephenson and Alec Bohm. Could see Bohm as a buy-low, with Stephenson as a veteran upgrade.
12:20
Very intrigued to see how much payroll room the Pirates have in 2027. A lot of players will be hitting arbitration for the first time, which makes it hard to predict. I'd still pay Lowe whatever he's asking for.
JK
12:21
Colin, when Nutting considers what to do as it relates to retaining Cherington, Williams and other front office types is there anyone outside the organization that he consults with, or is it all internal?  Thanks.
Colin Beazley
12:22
I've only spoken to Bob Nutting once, so can't say I have a good gauge on this. Can't really even offer a guess here, though I'd imagine owners talk to each other.
demosthenes98
12:22
I have a question about MLB in general, if you don't mind answering it. Why don't top MLB free agents sign in the first hours/days of free agency, the way their counterparts in the NFL and NHL do? I ask because of the league's recent proposal to shorten free agency in an attempt to make this happen.
Colin Beazley
12:25
Always happy to answer your questions, Demosthenes.

This has to do with leverage and CBA rules. In the other leagues, players have less leverage. You know exactly how much money every team has to spend, and once it's gone, it's gone. Therefore, if the players have a deal they like, they have to take it before a team offers it to someone else.

In an uncapped system with no deadline, players have that leverage. That money (usually) isn't going anywhere, so players can get teams to up their offers and get into bidding wars. It makes for a more drawn-out process, but the players believe it gives them more options and leads to bigger paydays.
demosthenes98
12:26
Konnor Griffin is off the IL and back in the lineup, but should he be? The team has nothing to play for, and he could reaggravate the injury, so what's the point? Is Bob Nutting forcing him out there in a desperate bid to sell tickets?
Colin Beazley
12:27
The Pirates believe they have something to play for, which is really what matters here. Even if they know their odds are slim.

I also haven't heard anything to suggest there's risk of re-aggravation.
demosthenes98
12:27
Your MiLB Monday article yesterday mentioned that Indianapolis is still in the playoff hunt. Is there any chance that the Pirates' players who aren't out of options go there to enjoy the playoff chase that Bob Nutting refuses to give them?
Colin Beazley
12:29
Always entertained by your questions, Demosthenes. Thanks for reading. Trust me, as fun as a playoff chase is, major league baseball (and the benefits that come with it) are far more fun than the upcoming six-game set in Gwinnett.
demosthenes98
12:29
ESPN.com published an article this morning about cities that are candidates for MLB expansion. I think they should expand to Pittsburgh. There's already a first-rate stadium here--all that's needed is an owner. What do you think?
Colin Beazley
12:30
Last one from Demosthenes, which I'll use to plug one of my favorite stories I wrote last year: what Pirates players are hoping for when MLB expands. There was a good amount of Nashville love.
RMA's Dad
12:31
In spite of his offensive shortcomings, I'm not ready to cut bait on Henry Davis just yet.  Do you think a (hopefully) new GM would consider him a non-tender candidate, considering their depth at catcher in the minor leagues?  I think that would still be premature.
Colin Beazley
12:34
Interesting you're not ready to cut bait on Henry Davis yet. Not saying I am, but that doesn't seem to be a common opinion.

As for your question, I wouldn't think so. I doubt he'll get much of a raise in arbitration, probably just to a typical number for a backup, good defensive catcher. That's not what the Pirates were looking for when they picked him 1-1, but that is a major leaguer.

As for catcher depth, there's not much MLB-ready talent yet. Easton Carmichael just reached Altoona, while Axiel Plaz is in Greensboro and Edgleen Perez is in Bradenton. Maybe next year they'll be close.
Sunner in Orlando from Lebo
12:34
What is the most the Bucs pay to retain Lowe or is he now out of their price range? I believe they should try to sign him and maybe get rid of Keller and Reynold contracts. I know, easier said than done but what do you think?
Floating around
12:34
Don't you think the Pirates should at least tender Lowe? He'll want to test the market and Pirates get a comp pick.
Colin Beazley
12:38
A follow-up on the Brandon Lowe question we started with -- this isn't a bad strategy, and something that's been a press box discussion lately. A qualifying offer would be around $22m-23m, which I'd suspect is more than Lowe would get on a multi-year deal.

So does he want one big year? Or a 3-4 year deal? Also depends on how much the Pirates value the draft pick -- they got rid of a pretty good pick this year to use $3m elsewhere, so...
12:39
I also don't think you have to get rid of a Bryan Reynolds or Mitch Keller to pay Brandon Lowe. The $11.5m Lowe's making this year, plus Marcell Ozuna's $10.5m and Gregory Soto's $7.75m can probably be shuffled to pay Lowe and the increases players like Paul Skenes, etc will get in arbitration.
12:40
But I'm not a contracts guy. I'll leave that math to Ethan Hullihen.
Bob
12:40
Do you think we trade or get rid of Reynolds who is fading fast  as a hitter and fielder (though he makes some spectacular wall catches) or Mitch Keller?
Colin Beazley
12:41
I'm not expecting it, no. Also feels worth noting that this is seen as a relatively weak free agent class, regardless of the CBA, so there's not too many players to go after. One of the reasons retaining Brandon Lowe is so attractive (and a reason why Lowe can do well in the open market).
Cosmo K
12:43
Will Nutting have made considerably less money this year due to a payroll increase? Does that mean he won't spend next year beyond existing contracts? I don't know why anybody follows this team in all honesty... Such a non accountable losing culture.
Colin Beazley
12:45
I don't know on your first question. The Pirates have already beaten last year's attendance numbers with one nine-game homestand to go. But I haven't seen the Pirates' books or how that correlates with a raised payroll.

What I do know is the raised payroll has certainly led to a better baseball team. Think I saw somewhere that this is the first time since 2018 where the Pirates have entered September with even a 1% postseason chance. But I'm not the one who decides how money is spent.
Chill Dave
12:45
Hi Collin,  your numbers article begins with the numbers against lefty starters and the role Ozuna should have played in that.  Was it realistic for the Pirates to think a reasonable performing Ozuna would be enough to address their LH bat heavy lineup?  And did DK have any options besides sticking with Ozuna way too long while some of us screamed at the tv to get him out of the lineup?
Colin Beazley
12:50
Hi Chilll Dave, I think it was reasonable to expect Ozuna to have made more of an impact than he did against lefties. It also put a lot of pressure on someone who had a down year as a 34-year-old to rebound at 35. Realistic to expect better, but also probably something they knew would be a relative weakness.

As for other options -- honestly, not really. I guess with the benefit of hindsight they could have given up sooner, but it's not like they had someone better in Triple-A once Valdez was up.

I still don't understand why they didn't go after someone at the deadline. Can you imagine where this team would be if they were the ones who ended up with Tyrone Taylor?
Joel
12:51
Colin, what are the chances that the Pirates cut bait with Henry Davis in the off season —- either trading him or releasing him? His lack of offense is such drag on the lineup and his defense is at best decent. I think it’s time to move on and seek a serious off season upgrade at the catcher position.
Colin Beazley
12:51
Answered this above, my fault for not grouping them together. I agree it's time to seek an upgrade, but I don't mind Davis as a backup.
Joel
12:52
Colin, the Pirates are not going to make the playoffs. Period. Full stop. So will there be any accountability for this failure and, if so, what form will it take?
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