Colin Beazley's Pirates chat: 09.22.26
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Colin Beazley
12:02
Hello and happy Tuesday. It's chat time. Final week of the regular season, mutual interest between the Pirates and Brandon Lowe, Paul Skenes attributing some of this season's struggles to the WBC, Mason Montgomery's continued dominance, Ben Cherington's future and more. Let's get into it...
Wayward
12:02
Colin, first thank you for your coverage of the Bucs this year!  I know it may be early, but what do you see as the Bucs biggest offseason need?  For me, I think RH 3B with some pop, veteran catcher as a potential backup, a LH back of the rotation starter and another experiences relief arm.  How about you?
Colin Beazley
12:08
Thank you, Wayward. Appreciate all of you for reading and making what I do possible.

I think the biggest thing the Pirates will need is some slug. You can solve a chunk of that by bringing Brandon Lowe back, but if they don't, they'll be looking for some power somewhere. Maybe a power-hitting third baseman would replace that, but this lineup's not quite as imposing without Lowe (though it is certainly better than last year's end of season group).

But yes, third base should be the biggest need regardless of whether Lowe is brought back. Murf Gray could be ready at some point next year, but that position needs to be addressed this offseason. It's not somewhere where the Pirates can ignore it until a prospect's ready like they did with Konnor Griffin. I like Murf Gray, but he's not on the same timeline and shouldn't have the same expectations.

I'd agree with the rest of the wishlist, but no idea what the final payroll number will look like. Tough to accomplish all of those with the same $.
WVJames
12:08
Good Afternoon Colin, when did things so sour with Hunter Barco? He started the season as their #3 Minor League prospect but never received, in my opinion, a fair chance to contribute especially in this last month when it’s a bullpen game every other day. I’m also really intrigued by Kristian Curtis for the future.
Colin Beazley
12:11
Good afternoon, WVJames. Interesting question -- he made the opening day roster, after all. On one hand he hasn't done much at the major league level to justify more looks, but he's also been put into some brutal situations (extra innings against the Mets, right after landing for Indianapolis, etc etc). I wouldn't mind a spot start for him in this final week.

I'm also intrigued by Khristian Curtis. He's shown some good stuff this season, apart from one bad outing. Definitely someone I'll look forward to seeing more from.
demosthenes98
12:11
As Bob Nutting's ninth consecutive losing season (and twenty-sixth overall) draws to a close, I'd like to thank you for doing these chats. They have been both informative and therapeutic. Will you do them at any point during the offseason, or is this it until opening day looms once more?
Colin Beazley
12:12
Thanks, Demosthenes. Honestly, not sure what the offseason schedule will look like. Will chat with my bosses about that. I'm sure I'll mix a chat and a mailbag in occasionally, especially given this offseason's uncertain length. But I'm always around via email if you don't see a mailbag or a chat scheduled.
demosthenes98
12:13
Once the final out is recorded this coming Sunday, what will accountability look like? Will we see mass firings up and down the organization? Will anyone have the bravery to call out Bob Nutting for his role in this failure of a season?
What percentage of the responsibility for this failure of a season would you assign to Don Kelly, Ben Cherington, Travis Williams, and Bob Nutting? I assume they don't each get 25%.
Colin Beazley
12:19
These are both interesting questions that I've kind of tried to answer on this chat before. The idea of accountability is one I'm particularly interested in. Ben Cherington said on his radio show Sunday that (I'm paraphrasing) the season wasn't good enough because it didn't lead to the postseason. It also seems on track to be a winning year, they're playing good baseball right now, and most of the important pieces are back next year. If this was year four of a rebuild, that'd be a pretty good spot.

Issue is it's year seven and it was supposed to be playoffs or bust, so in many ways, you're not wrong to call it a failure. It was better, but not good enough. Should that be fire-worthy? At some point enough should be enough, but at the same time, they're definitely in a better spot with a bright future. But that's where they're supposed to be!
12:24
Anyways, to answer your questions as well as I can I don't expect mass firings. I'm kind of working under the assumption Cherington and Kelly will be back, but I can't say that with enough certainty to 100 percent report it. Just the general feeling.

I won't give percentages on your second Q, but you could argue everything in an organization can be traced back to ownership and everything with a team can be traced back to the GM. It's not all Cherington's fault because what if Nutting gave him more payroll to work with? It's not all Kelly's fault because what if Cherington gave him a better bullpen? And who knows where we'd be without "Period. Full stop"?
Chill Dave
12:24
Hi Colin, do you know what the Pirates' final attendance number is for this season?  And how it compares to the last few seasons?  I am trying to figure out if Nutting might see the value in spending money to make money.  Or if he can think he placated his fan base enough this one season to go back to being the cheapest owner in sports.
Colin Beazley
12:26
Hi Chill Dave, always enjoy looking for your questions. Current attendance, with three more home games to go, is 1,663,856. It'll get them to probably 1.7 million with three more games, which would be around the 2024 totals and far from the 2.5 million they drew in 2015. But it is 200,000 more than last year.
demosthenes98
12:26
Why do the Pirates bother to put on a fan appreciation day at the end of every season? Their refusal to try to make the playoffs shows that they don't appreciate us. More Bob Nutting lies?
Colin Beazley
12:27
Anyone who sat through the rain on Sunday was deserving of a jersey, or, at bare minimum, the joy of a Rafael Flores Jr. go-ahead homer.
gamardo
12:27
Thanks for the chat, Colin. When might Cherrington’s future be addressed?
Martian
12:27
Do you think the we finally clean house in the front office, or will Nutting let it ride for another mediocre year?
Davey
12:28
If you were a close advisor to Bob Nutting, what would be your top two reasons for retaining Ben Cherington for next season, and your top two reasons for replacing him?
Colin Beazley
12:33
Throwing together a few Cherington questions -- I'd expect either an announcement or a lack of announcement at the end of the season. We spoke to Bob Nutting at the beginning of the season. I'd be very interested in hearing his thoughts at the end of this season, regardless of whether Cherington is brought back.

For Davey's question, for bringing him back: 1. There's a good young core to build around and 2. It's pretty easy to argue this team would have made the playoffs if Skenes performed better and the team stayed healthier, and that's in part because of Cherington's moves. (There's other things to blame, including several that are Cherington's fault, but you asked for reasons to bring him back).

For replacing him: 1. It's year seven. 2. Marcell Ozuna and a very, very shaky bullpen, which are both directly on Cherington. Oh, and 3. It's year seven.
Martian
12:33
Lowe is open to returning, but we havent even started a conversation with him? I know we are cheap but come on, his bat is something we havent had in a long time, and tell me who could be a better mentor for a young griffin then him? Is it as simple as we know Nutting wont pay another player so why waste time?
Sunner in Orlando from Lebo
12:33
What is the possibility that Lowe gets resigned? Has he priced himself out of Pittsburgh? What is the max you would pay him vs what do you think the max the Pirates will try to pay him? Is 25 mil per year reasonable or out of the question?
Bill in Charleston
12:33
Realistically, is it out of the question that the Bucs sign Lowe?  Since he was acquired via trade, he isn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, is he?
Mark C.
12:34
On the flipside, if they could re-sign Lowe, couldn't they just use his salary this season and add the $12M coming off the books for Ozuna to give him say $20-22M over 3 years with an option for a 4th year?
Colin Beazley
12:41
Brandon Lowe time. I don't think he's 100% gone, though I don't necessarily think a return is likely.

The last projection I saw had the Pirates at around $93m (a few contracts off the books, arb projections, then a Doval non-tender). I expect Lowe to be in the $20-$25m range. This will be the biggest payday he gets, so I expect him to want 3-4 years. Anywhere in the $20-$25m range would push the Pirates over their record payroll. I don't know what their final payroll number will be, but I can't 100% say they'll be willing to push past $110m. I just can't. A qualifying offer makes a ton of sense, though I doubt he'd accept it, but I can't 100% say they'd be fine with a one year deal that puts payroll at $116m. (And again, these are just projections.)

I think Lowe will have interest, but I think some teams will be wary of his age and injury history. I'm not sure I'd be willing to go to four years. (cont.)
12:42
I'd do 2/50 or 3/66, which I think the Pirates could manage, but I'm not certain they'll have the wiggle room up top that they'd need to continue to push payroll.

Pirates could end up needing to move Keller to make a Lowe return possible. Or maybe they just need enhanced revenue sharing and/or a salary floor. Lot of uncertainty, but I don't think it's impossible if the Pirates decide they want him back and they're willing to pay him what he's worth.
Chill Dave
12:43
Hi Colin, Given, the uncertainty of the labor situation, would there be some advantage for a FA (idk, let's just say Brandon Lowe) in signing a reasonable contract and pocketing a signing bonus, rather than waiting through the uncertainty?  Usually time is on the FA's side.  This time I'm not so sure.  What are your thoughts?
Colin Beazley
12:46
He's in an interesting spot. Maybe he benefits from a floor and more small market teams going after him, or maybe the Yankees want him as a Jazz Chisholm replacement. He did tell me he remembered the flurry before and after the last lockout, but didn't give any indication where he'd rather be of those two.
79 Buccos
12:46
Assuming Ashcraft, Chandler, Skenes, and Jones are all healthy next spring, do you think the 5th spot is filled by our farm system, a trade/signing, or Carmen M gets his shot?  I don't think Keller is the answer or will be ready to go until May at the earliest.
PhilinCT
12:46
Mr. Beazley, IF Keller is healthy and we have baseball in 2027, do you run out the rotation as Ashcraft, Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Keller? If he isn't do you look for a lefty innings-eater? Go to the minors or a six-man rotation? Thanks for your insight.
MjB
12:46
Everyone knows we need a lefty starter, but let's imagine the Pirates do not add to their rotation next year.  We know who the Top 4 out of spring training will be.  Who will be the 5th?  Again, that's assuming no signings are made.
Colin Beazley
12:51
Fifth starter talk -- theoretically, the Pirates have five healthy right-handers in Skenes, Ashcraft, Chandler, Jones and Keller. I don't anticipate Keller's injury affecting spring training or anything like that.

I'd put Keller at the most likely. If he's dealt, which would be a pure salary dump, then you could go for a veteran innings eater. I'm intrigued by Khristian Curtis, haven't ruled out Barco/Antwone Kelly/Wilber Dotel and am very interested in Connor Wietgrefe, but I'm not ready to say any of those five is set for a No. 5 starter spot. Impress in spring, then we'll talk.
79 Buccos
12:51
Has Cruz's defensive metrics been any better since he returned from his injury?
Colin Beazley
12:52
I primarily use FanGraphs for defensive metrics, which doesn't show monthly splits. (If it does and I just missed it, someone email me.) I'm not certain, but I am fairly sure his numbers have improved since returning, but again, haven't seen splits. At a bare minimum, the eye test has been much improved.
62 Stack Monster
12:53
Hi Colin, I know the answer for 2027, but perhaps in 2028, will the Pirates have a new general manager who is competitive and wants to win?  Cherington pretty much slept through the season when the bullpen was blowing saves.  Had he acted earlier, we fans might not be so worried about the Steelers right now and this town would be buzzing about,,.. playoffs?!?!
Colin Beazley
12:56
Hi 62 Stack Monster, if 2026 was playoffs "period full stop," but they miss the playoffs and retain Cherington, I can only imagine what the tagline and expectations would be for 2027. Even more of a playoffs-or-bust year, I'm sure.

He talked a little on Sunday about how there just wasn't anything out there they were seeing to address the bullpen earlier. I find it hard to believe that the Angels wouldn't have moved Yates or the Yankees wouldn't have moved Doval earlier, but I'm not in on those conversations.
79 Buccos
12:56
Pirates need a better glove and a power bat at 3B but Gonzales can hit.  Do you think he is next year's DH if we find a 3B assuming Lowe hopefully stays a Bucco?
MW from CLT
12:56
Assume the Pirates have no real chance of signing Lowe to a new contract, do they look for another FA or try Nick G at second next season?
JD in FLA
12:56
I moved to Florida 40 years ago and I still much the majority of pirates games. Ranking priorities for 2027. 3B with power (RH), LH starter and resign Lowe. Am I missing anything?
Mark C.
12:56
Hey Colin, thanks for the coverage this season, much appreciated.  Since it clearly seems inevitable that Lowe will be departing in the team after the game on the 26th never to return, is it likely that Gonzalez takes over the 2nd base spot next season?  Also, considering the power that is walking out the door, how do you replace that?
Colin Beazley
12:59
Thanks for saying that, Mark.

I don't know what to do with Nick Gonzales if you bring back Brandon Lowe. He's a major league bat, but not a major league third baseman. Outfield, maybe? I do think Gonzales would be the second base replacement if Lowe walks.

That said, if I'm the Pirates, in no way am I thinking "if we don't re-sign Lowe, we're all good because we have Gonzales," and that's not meant as a criticism of Gonzales. Lowe has been so, so good this year, both on the field and off. That's a player you need on a playoff team, and one you pay to keep.
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