Colin Beazley's Pirates chat: 09.29.26
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Colin Beazley
12:01
Hello and happy Tuesday. The 2026 Pirates season is officially complete, so one last time, let's talk about it. Looking forward to answering your questions.
62 Stack Monster
12:02
Colin, I've been thinking lately, which is dangerous, but IF a salary cap in baseball is established, what might it look like for the players to agree to one? The top two teams, the Dodgers and Mets, pay around $350M+ this past year. I'm guessing the cap would have to approach $400M+ for MLBPA to buy into it. I suppose this is more of a business question, but can the owners afford this?  And, will they?
Colin Beazley
12:07
That is dangerous, 62 Stack Monster. I do my best to think as little as possible. Safer that way.

The players' issue is less with the cap number but more the idea of one. Not having a cap is the single biggest piece of leverage the players have. Their thinking is that once they lose it, there is zero chance they will ever get an uncapped system back. And once a cap system is implemented, owners can gradually squeeze for lesser salaries and lower payrolls league-wide. The players won't have nearly as much say.

Owners can afford any system. They're doing perfectly fine in this one.

But as for numbers, sure, you could theoretically have a $400m cap and a $100m floor that wouldn't actually change much. Maybe the union would be more interested in that than the current $240m proposal. But the bigger issue is the system itself and that leverage instead of the actual numbers.
Chill Dave
12:08
If the Pirates were to do the unthinkable and both re-sign Lowe AND upgrade 3B, how would they get Nick G's bat in the lineup?  And would they really need him at all at that point?
Colin Beazley
12:12
That would be a dream offseason. Would require some unbelievable maneuvering from GMBC, or a bigger wallet to work with.

I don't think they'll do both, but if they do, I wouldn't know what to do with Nick Gonzales. I don't expect him to be the starting third baseman next year regardless. He was put into a brutal situation, as he didn't really get an offseason to prepare to play a brand new position, but he also struggled all year. I don't get the sense that they want him to have an offseason there and remain at third next season.

So maybe that's a trade? I could also see him spend some time working in the outfield. If he hits .300, they can find a spot. But he also could be surplus if they bring in a third baseman and keep Lowe.
12:14
I'm sure I'll talk about it plenty on this chat, but I am 100 percent for re-signing Lowe. If you re-sign him and then have to figure out what to do with a good hitter in Gonzales, that's a good problem to have. I would not let Lowe walk for the sake of having a better spot for Gonzales, as good as Gonzales was at the plate this year.
demosthenes98
12:16
First and foremost, thanks so much for doing a chat during the offseason! I think I speak for everyone here when I say that I hope it's the first of many. Anyway, how has it been over 40 hours since the final out of the 2026 season and NOT A SINGLE PERSON has LOST THEIR JOB due to the team's FAILURE?
Colin Beazley
12:17
Thanks for saying thanks, Demosthenes. I won't be chatting weekly during the offseason, but wanted to make sure we got an end-of-season chat in. Not sure what the exact schedule will be still.
12:21
As for your question, I hesitate to call the season a failure. It's also true that it wasn't good enough. If it was good enough, they'd still be playing.

Evidently, they like the trajectory that they're on. I would expect some changes, but I'm not expecting a dramatic overhaul after a season where progress was made (but again, wasn't good enough).
demosthenes98
12:21
On a scale of "seedless grape" to "empty warehouse," how hollow of an accomplishment is the Pirates' playoff-less winning record?
Colin Beazley
12:22
I'll go with an empty trophy cabinet.
Old School
12:22
Am I crazy to kind of like Ronny Simon? any chance he stays on the 40? They;d have been a lot better off with him on the roster than Ozuna. sigh.
Colin Beazley
12:24
No you're not crazy, Old School. He's good depth to have. An optionable bat who hit .330 in Triple-A and didn't look overmatched in the big leagues? That works for me.

Now, he shouldn't be an entrenched starter. I like Jake Mangum for that fourth outfield role. But as someone who can be depth in both spots and fill in when necessary, you could do a lot worse.
Sunner in Orlando from Lebo
12:24
Any reasonable chance to sign Lowe to a 3–4-year contract at 25 mil per? If anyone deserves that pay it would be him. I know the Bucs are gun shy on putting big money into players that don't pan out like Hayes, Polanco, Reynolds and Keller but I believe Lowe will give a good ROI. What say you?
Colin Beazley
12:29
I expect Lowe to be around that number. I do think there's a reasonable chance. Low? Unfortunately, yes. I wouldn't put a number on it and wouldn't bet on it, but I do think there's a chance.

$20-25m isn't prohibitively expensive. Pirates should be able to make that work, either within the current salary structure by moving Keller or by investing a little more in a team that has a chance next year. The clubhouse really, really wants him back.

Now, I do worry about a four year deal. I wouldn't give a fifth year, so if some team goes for that I'd have a hard time faulting the Pirates. But this is something that should be possible to get done if the Pirates actually want to win next year.
demosthenes98
12:29
You wrote an article last week that got the headline "Why the Pirates missed the playoffs — and why September gives them hope 2027 will be different[.]" Given that the Pirates have had plenty of good Septembers not carry over to the following season--not to mention that Bob Nutting hasn't yet sold the team--wouldn't it be more truthful to say that they should have no hope for 2027?
Colin Beazley
12:33
I'm not trying to tell fans what to think. I get why optimism is hard to find after five winning seasons since 1992, even after one of those winning seasons. As someone in the clubhouse, I was reporting that the players have real hope for 2027 based upon how they played to end the year and how much of the core is coming back.

I do believe there are things to look forward to with the 2027 Pirates. They have a chance to be legitimately good. But you're absolutely within your rights to be skeptical.
demosthenes98
12:33
All but three MLB owners are billionaires, and those three are all worth well into nine figures. Instead of a salary cap, why don't the small-market owners just grow a spine and bust out their wallets?
Colin Beazley
12:36
This is what the MLBPA is saying, and they can point at the Padres (and their $3.9b sale price) to highlight what spending can do.

It's fun to think about what this team could look like if they spent even $125m next season.
BeaverFallsKid
12:36
Hey Colin. Several Pirates will get pay raises via arbitration this offseason.  And they should sign Lowe to a 3 year deal. So what if the payroll hits $135 million? That would be good for 21st in the league this year.  While the Pirates don't need to be the Dodgers, the formula is simple..... spend more money. Win more games. Sell more tickets and merch to cover the increased payroll.  But it's not irrational to believe ownership will use the pending lock out as an excuse to stand pat in free agency & reduce payroll investment. Although ownership can be characterized as "cheap," the real difference between the Bucs and other small market teams is Nutting's unwillingness to seize the day when he has real talent and pursue division and league pennants when the team manages to assemble competitive talent like what is happening now.  It's a travesty and one that compromises fan loyalty.
Colin Beazley
12:38
You said it. Hard to disagree with anything you wrote here. I don't even think you'd have to get to $135m to compete with the Brewers. This is a good core, and one that's absolutely worth investing in.
Sunner in Orlando from Lebo
12:39
Does Murphy need to go? His staff had an overall worse year than the year before but, in his defense, there were a bunch of injuries. However, if anyone were to be let go, I think it should be him.
Colin Beazley
12:44
I don't think he needs to go. I also don't think he had the impact they had hoped he'd had — but I'm also skeptical on exactly how much impact any coach can truly have.

Murphy's biggest win this season is Mason Montgomery, who was just named as the NL Reliever of the Month for September. He got him throwing a two-seamer that turned him into the best reliever in baseball for a two-month span. He also helped Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler improve.

That said, he didn't have solutions for Mitch Keller, Dennis Santana, Isaac Mattson or a few others. (Intentionally not including Paul Skenes on that list.) I don't think you can use the injury excuse for Murphy, but it's also fair to say his pitching staff didn't maximize their abilities this year.
Ryan
12:44
Good afternoon Colin what do you think about the season mason Montgomery had i think he was a Good trade addition along with Jake mangum and Brandon Lowe
Colin Beazley
12:46
Good afternoon, Ryan. It's a stellar trade, no doubt about it. Montgomery will enter next season as the closer. Mangum is a big leaguer and great depth to have. You cannot ask for more in one season than Lowe accomplished in Pittsburgh.

I don't know how you replace Brandon Lowe if you don't bring him back. I'm not expecting a repeat of this season, but the guys in that clubhouse really, really want him back.
Sunner in Orlando from Lebo
12:47
Will there be a hold on contract extensions (Lowe) and free agent signings until the labor dispute is resolved or will it be business as usual with the Bucs trying to sign some back-end players for depth?
Colin Beazley
12:51
It's an interesting spot. There's a month of offseason where players can sign and operations can be had as normal, then the lockout will start Dec. 1 and all will be frozen.

Pirates could try to get their work done early, assuming nothing changes, or could want to wait until after the lockout (dangerous, given spring training will start pretty much immediately after in all likelihood).

I could see a world where they want to want on Lowe until they know the rules they'll be playing under, as if there's a floor they have to reach, they'll have absolutely no excuse to not re-sign him. But (speculating) I could also see Lowe wanting to get a deal done before the CBA to know where he'll be playing. Signing Lowe right before the lockout would certainly be a statement of intent going in.
Jim
12:51
Hello Colin, So there's going to be a lockout. Forget about length of the stoppage or anything that happens between now and the next regular season MLB game. How does this eventually end? Salary floor? Cap? Owners give in? Personally, lock them out until they agree to a cap or let them all find real jobs, there needs to be REAL competitive balance instead of LA popping champagne every year. How do they even feel like real champions at this point with the amount they overspend as compared to other teams?
Colin Beazley
12:54
Why should the players be penalized to fix a league issue? And what are the Dodgers doing wrong? They draw 50,000 fans per game, use their profits to make their organization better, and every decision they make goes towards winning. What's wrong with that? There's a reason players want to play there.
12:57
My current, September 29 prediction, is that this ends without a cap and a floor. I don't think the owners are willing to dig in when they have the payday of a new television deal coming after 2028, as well as two new expansion franchises on the horizon. The game has momentum, why mess that up? After all, this is all to pump up franchise values. Sure, the Angels and Padres didn't sell for as much as the Seahawks did, but a near-$4b valuation is nothing to sneeze at.
Jim
12:58
When these negotiations get ugly and the public back and forth begins, do you see the fans who work hard to make a fraction of what the players think is a "good deal for them" will turn on players like Skenes for acting like victims?
Colin Beazley
1:01
Realizing I missed this question from Jim earlier. I'll use it to share the link from the CBA story that was published earlier today. Talked to a couple Pirates players, including Paul Skenes and MLBPA rep Henry Davis, for their thoughts.

Also feels worth noting that this upcoming CBA negotiation is millionaires against billionaires. The league will be locking out players, not the other way around. Both sides have things they believe are worth fighting for, but if games are missed, its fans of baseball that lose.
mrosenth
1:02
Do you see Gray as starting 3rd in 2027. Who do you expect to be promoted to Indy from Altoona to start the season?
Colin Beazley
1:06
I don't see Murf Gray as the starting third baseman in 2027. I think he'll debut, but the Pirates' plan for the position shouldn't be a player at Double-A. I am very high on Gray and think he will be a big leaguer, but he's a different prospect than Konnor Griffin.

I'd expect Gray and Lonnie White Jr. to start in Indianapolis. Probably Callan Moss too, assuming there's not someone else who needs 1B reps in Indy. I'd guess Easton Carmichael starts in Double-A, but no guarantee there. Routine reps are the most important thing.
Chill Dave
1:06
Does Cherington realize that the "trajectory they are on" was largely a matter of finally spending some money on players?  Something tells me they won't continue on that trajectory.
Bruce
1:06
The Pirates improved and finally had a winning season, but still missed the playoffs. What would concern you more this winter: Cherington overreacting and sacrificing too much of the future to win in 2027, or treating 82–80 as proof that the current plan is working and making only incremental moves?
Colin Beazley
1:11
They made some "win now" moves and got "win now" results. Bring back Lowe and keep that momentum.

For Bruce's Q, the second. I do believe the current plan is working, but there are reasons this team went 82-80 and missed the playoffs. Ozuna's no longer a problem, but they need to address infield defense, an inability to hit lefties, pitching depth and a shaky bullpen. The bullpen is better, but all of those problems still exist (and exist if they bring back Lowe, too).

I think it's reasonable to expect running it back to lead to slightly better results, given most of the Pirates core is young and only getting better. But at the same time, this team got better because they made real acquisitions of O'Hearn and Lowe. They should do that again.
Mark C.
1:11
Hello Colin, just read your article on the upcoming lockout, and I read Henry Davis' comments about being irked about the league trying to sway people's emotions towards the benefits of a cap.  My question is, does he realize that fans in his own town don't need to be swayed at all, I mean come on he cannot be that dense could he?
Colin Beazley
1:14
Thanks for reading, Mark. I do think Davis realizes fans in Pittsburgh view this differently than, say, fans in Los Angeles and New York.
Syd
1:14
What do you think they do with Jhostynxon Garcia? I’m not sure he’s an everyday big leaguer on a team trying to make the playoffs (on top of the fact that they have too many outfielders already). Does he get the Billy Cook role and play 2x a month + as a defensive replacement? Does he go to AAA and wait for an injury to someone on the roster?
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