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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--1/14/2021
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Craig Edwards
2:03
Hey.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:03
If way fewer people are in this chat than usual, it's because this chat, like Dan's earlier, wasn't posted on the front page. Or maybe everyone's pulling a prank where no one goes to your chat and they "forgot" to tell me. :(
Craig Edwards
2:04
We are aware of the issue and are working on it. In the meantime that means two things. 1. If you ask a question, it is more likely to be answered than normal, and 2. I'm going to wait a couple minutes for the queue to fill up a bit.
bk
2:13
Craig, what do you think of Semien to fill the Blue Jays hole at 3B?
Craig Edwards
2:14
I'm a big fan of Semien. I prefer him to LeMahieu and wrote about that here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/marcus-semien-potential-bargain-free-agent...
2:17
He doesn't have a ton of experience at third, but given how well he worked at shortstop to make that work, I don't think it would be a huge issue. I know the Jays seem in on everyone and Semien might seem like a disappointment if they don't get Springer, LeMahieu, or Realmuto, but Semien would be a solid addition.
James
2:17
DJLM AAV over/under 21 Million
Craig Edwards
2:18
If it is five years, almost definitely under. Four years is a closer call, but I still might take the under overall.
Kevin
2:18
What is the next big free agent domino to fall?
Craig Edwards
2:21
Next or first? Liam Hendriks is a great reliever, but he wasn't one of the top guys to get signed. Everybody expected the Mets to come in and do great things for free agency, but they've kind of ruined it a bit. Signing McCann takes them out on Realmuto. Getting Lindor and Carrasco makes Springer unlikely, pretty much removes LeMahieu, and makes Bauer less necessary. They still have room to do more, but a team expected to spend big in free agency might end up sitting out on the big free agents.
To answer the question, though, I'll still say Springer.
Guest
2:21
Any guesses on what Brad Hand’s contract will look like?
Craig Edwards
2:22
I'll stick with that. He's a bit better than Treinen so should sign for a few million more.
Panik at the Disco
2:23
Beans in chili?
Craig Edwards
2:23
Yes.
George
2:23
Who even is going to sign Realmuto if the Phillies don't get him? Does anyone want to win anymore?
Craig Edwards
2:24
Nationals, maybe Angels or Blue Jays. The Phillies still need him the most of any team so I would think he ends up back there, but we'll see.
Jon
2:24
Let's say you're the Cardinals (you're not, but roleplay with me here), and you have to sign exactly two of these contracts, which two do you pick?:

Molina for 1y/$10M
Wainwright for 1y/$6M
Wong for 2y/$12M
Craig Edwards
2:27
If I'm the Cardinals, I take the first two. The third is probably the best bargain, but if you can bring back those two, you have to do it. You should also do the third one, though. For $22 million in free agency taking payroll to around $150 million, still like $15 million below last season, you would be easy favorites in a weak NL central.
The Ghost of Wade Boggs
2:27
Do you think there is a trade package that could be put together to aquire Wander Franco, and if so, what would it look like?
Craig Edwards
2:30
From one team? Not a prospect package. Seattle could offer Kelenic and Rodriguez and valuewise, that wouldn't be enough.
As for some other deal, I ranked Franco 11th in July on the Trade Value series. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-trade-value-1-to-10/
2:32
Of the 10 guys ahead of him, I'm not sure Tampa Bay takes on any of those guys until you get to the top-three of Soto, Tatis Jr., Acuna. Albies is in the realm of possibilities, but I'm still not sure they take it.
bk
2:32
5/$140M seem like a reasonable Jays/Springer contract?
Craig Edwards
2:33
It's not unreasonable, though I would think if the dollars got that high, it might be spread over six years. I predicted 5/115 when the offseason began, and I still think it probably stays somewhere in that 110-140 range.
Guest
2:34
A lot of talk in DC is focused on extensions for players like Turner and Soto. I don't think Soto will sign early (Boras) but what type of contract would it take to lock up Trea Turner? I truly think hes one of the most underrated players in MLB and is primed for a Rendon-esque awakening.
Craig Edwards
2:39
Turner is an interesting call given the shortstops available next year and he hits FA the year after that. He might want some of those guys to set the market for him and get to free agency so I imagine an extension wouldn't be easy to pull off just two years out. He's already going to make something like $30-$35 million over the next two seasons probably so you buy out those and then you are talking about his age-30 through age-34 seasons. You are probably talking something close to $200 million, but that might not really be of interest to either side at this point.
Guest
2:39
If say, a new owner offered to create a team of the free agents still on the board, how many games would that team win?
Craig Edwards
2:40
They'd be roughly even with the Dodgers and Padres. It would probably cost you $250 million and you wouldn't have a ton of depth at starting pitching unless you snagged everyone left, but you would have a great team.
KJ
2:42
Which remaining bullpen free agents do you think will provide the best value in 2021?
Craig Edwards
2:42
I'd say Archie Bradley.
Zack
2:42
Hey Craig, I'm wondering if you see Clarke Scmidt beginning the year in the rotation for the yankees, I love his ratios in the minors and see some big upside from him
Craig Edwards
2:43
I suggest reading this, and maybe you just did and that's what prompted the question. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/clarke-schmidt-talks-pitching/
2:45
I worry a little about the lack of another offspeed pitch aside from the curve. If the change comes around, he could be a solid mid-rotation guy, but if it doesn't, success will come and go and he'll be more of a back-end/swingman/bullpen guy.
Guest
2:46
Thoughts on the Twins’ offseason so far?
Craig Edwards
2:46
Hmmm...Checks roster resource offseason tracker https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/offseason-tracker/twins
2:48
well...ummm....seems like they should do something before we judge them. Robles is fine I guess, but they should really add to the rotation. If they don't, they could find themselves in trouble if the White Sox play to expectations.
Mike Rizzo
2:48
If you were me what three moves would you make to put the Nats back on the Mets/Braves tier?
Craig Edwards
2:50
How much are they willing to spend? If they want to make that leap, they almost have to start with Realmuto or Bauer. Then, maybe Bryant and either Willson Conteras (if Bauer) or Tanaka (if Realmuto). Even then, I think it would be tough to get to the Mets level right now.
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