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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--1/16/2020
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Greene
2:57
My understanding is that Luis Robert does not pronounce the "t" at the end of his name.  Is his OF defense good enough that was can call him Luis "the Robber" Robert (based on his ability to rob HRs)?
Craig Edwards
2:57
Sadly, you are mistaken.
Sir Nerdlington
2:58
I'm currently reading The Game about the 1994 CBA discussions. Don Fehr/MLBPA rejected 50% revenue share (aka salary cap), four year free agency, and the elimination of arbitration. Think players want a do-over on that offer?
Craig Edwards
2:58
I doubt it. They are probably slightly ahead since 1994 on that front.
Trevor
2:59
Regarding your trade-value piece, do we know when we might hear final word on Bryant's grievance?  And do you think the delay is a result of the fact that arbitrators are often paid by the hour?  (And often at rates in excess of 300 or 400 dollars per hour?)
Craig Edwards
3:00
I think Heyman reported in the next couple weeks, though that's what Theo Epstein said at the Winter Meetings two months ago. I doubt the arbitrator's hourly rate has much to do with the delay. There's a lot of information to go over and it's not like the arbitrator is just doing this one single thing.
guest
3:02
What sort of package would you see Arizona offering in a Kris Bryant deal (assuming 2 years of control for Bryant)?
Craig Edwards
3:05
Arizona has bulk in terms of minor league arms without being able to offer any sure things in terms of prospects. They could do a Gallen-Lamb plus somebody further down their prospect list and that might be intriguing. The three Diamondbacks CF prospects are interesting but pretty far away and even then, it's not like they are giving up Kristian Robinson in a Bryant deal.
Wicho, Jr.
3:05
Does everything that's happened/happening affect the Red Sox's plans with Betts?
Craig Edwards
3:06
I doubt it.
Miller
3:08
So it looks like the hot stove will again be extending into the late off-season this year, albeit on the managerial side of operations, rather than the player side.  Are there any significant difficulties associated with a new manager joining a team so soon before the season starts (e.g., learning the roster, developing a rapport with players, etc.)?
Craig Edwards
3:09
Yes, there are some difficulties in terms of getting up to speed with knowledge of the roster on a baseball level as well as a personal one. Not to mention the manager is in charge of running spring training which is a fairly complex task. I'm sure there's a lot the organizations do to get ready, but it does put them a little behind.
Cody
3:10
Will the allegations against the Red Sox and Astros impact their ability to sign free agents in the future?  Does it perhaps depend on just how widespread sign stealing actually is, since--if every team is really doing it--the Red Sox and Astros would not be any different than the rest of baseball?
Craig Edwards
3:10
No. Money will always be the biggest factor.
Mr. Burrito
3:11
Is there any data that quantifies the value of sign stealing? It seems obvious that it helps, in some way, to know what pitch is coming. But, as with PEDs, players who have talked about it at all tend to downplay the value of that particular advantage. Thoughts?
Craig Edwards
3:11
It's hard to say. Jake Mailhot looked into it some. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/which-players-might-have-benefited-from-th...
3:12
In terms of an advantage, it absolutely helps to know which pitch is coming. That knowledge is going to help some players more than others and affect them in different ways depending on the skills they already have.
Soxtober2020
3:12
If this latest rumor of electronic buzzers on some Astros players' shoulders is true, what do you think is next?  Hard to believe Crane could skate through all of this relatively untouched if it keeps snowballing.
Craig Edwards
3:14
Well he already had to surrender $5 million, plus four draft picks and much of his front office, which had already been drained over the past few years by outside hires. He's not exactly getting off easy, here. There's always more penalties to be levied if more is found out, but I don't think it is going to get too much worse for Crane.
pumpsie
3:15
Are you surprised the Pirates haven't made any trades yet? Will we see Archer, Marte, Polanco moved before opening day?
Craig Edwards
3:16
Not really, Cherington got a bit of a late start on things and Archer and Polanco don't have a lot going for them right now so the team might as well see if they can rebuild some value. Marte, I could see going, but the outfield market in free agency hasn't exactly been swift.
Nick
3:16
Who writes the MLB Constitution, and does it get periodically revised the way the CBA does?  I ask in light of concerns that the $5 million maximum penalty might not be large enough to deter teams from breaking the rules.
Craig Edwards
3:17
The owners are the ones that put the Commissioner in charge and they didn't want him to have more power than the $5 million allows. Maybe they decide to move it up a little, but it is hard for an owner not to think about himself and whether he might be subject to that sort of fine for something that happened in the organization and want to limit exposure.
Cody
3:20
ZIPS says 43 HRs for Stanton and 33 HRs for Judge.  Would you take the over or under on those?
Craig Edwards
I'd probably take the under on Stanton and the over on Judge.
Matt W
3:21
We should just be talking about Mike Piazza Drive today
Craig Edwards
3:21
As bad as the news has been, I think it is actually better than talking about Mike Piazza Drive.
PS
3:21
How possible is it that the MLB missed more significant cheating (like the buzzer accusations) during their investigation? That seems incredibly incompetent of them if true.
Craig Edwards
3:22
They interviewed a bunch of people. If they didn't tell them anything about buzzers, I'm not sure how they were supposed to find out.
Sir Nerdlington
3:23
If the baseball returns to 'normal' what type of pitcher benefits most? (beyond the obvious of guys with a high fb%)
Craig Edwards
3:23
Pitchers in hitters parks.
pumpsie
3:24
How much difference is there between 4th-year arb and FA? Aside from the long-term contract, of course. A lot of non-tenders this year, it seemed. Mostly wondering if the arbitration system is getting closer to matching free agency, at least by the 3rd or 4th years.
Craig Edwards
3:25
For some players it is, but if you are reliever without saves or an above-average position player, it never gets close. Plus, the one-year contract thing is massive as it almost always nets you a prime season without risk at the end.
Big Joe Mufferaw
3:26
Yanks need Happ? You don't have faith in Montgomerry and German at the #5 spot? With Warren, Loasiga, Garcia, etc as back ups?
Craig Edwards
3:27
Maybe he's a bit of a luxury item, but if a few things go wrong in the rotation, and the rotation has considerable health question marks, the back end of the rotation could get ugly quick, and that might be the difference in the division.
Soto
3:28
As a Cubs fan, should I be irritated with ownership over budget, or be happy about the money spent over the last few years and the WS that it brought?
Craig Edwards
3:28
You can be both things.
TomBruno23
3:28
Path of least resistance for the Cardinals (assuming no Arenado deal) is to re-sign Ozuna. I think? Right?
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