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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--1/2/2020
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Chris
2:05
The reds are interested in ozuna? Does that mean they are going to trade senzel? What more would the mariners have to give up besides haniger to get senzel? Tom Murphy?
Craig Edwards
2:08
The Reds are an interesting spot. I would assume that signing Akiyama means that they wouldn't be interested in Ozuna with Winker/Senzel/Akiyama/Aquino fitting into the three spots. Only a real upgrade makes sense at this point. I'm not sure a Haniger deal makes that much sense. That's why we are going to hear a ton about Lindor because that's the type of upgrade that would make sense if the team is going to trade Senzel. They could just try Senzel at shortstop again if all three other outfielders are actually good and healthy. I just wrote up that Akiyama deal that and will link to that when it goes up.
Stephen
2:09
Luis Robert's "Future Value" is just "55", which is equal to Nick Madrigal's (another White Sox prospect), for example. These projections aren't adjusted at all given Robert's 2019 minor league performance? Also, does today's news (contract extension) change his 2020 projections (considering he will likely play a whole season in the majors now)?
Craig Edwards
2:14
In some respects, the signing means very little for the White Sox. Depth Charts already had Robert slated for 120 games and 504 plate appearances. I think we can probably add 25 more games and 100 PA, so that will help his projections some. As for his 55 future value, I'm sure Kiley and Eric will factor in his performance last year, but in keep in mind they could have adjusted him up during the season last year and didn't. There are concerns about how his walk rates and swings and misses will translate at the big league level as well as him in center field. He's not quite as good of a prospect as Eloy Jiménez was last season due to those concerns with the bat, and even Jiménez struggled some to start the season. Also, a 55 is still one of the top 20-50 prospects in the game.
Matt
2:14
What do you think is going to happen with German? I think it's pretty clear there would be a suspension next season, but any idea how long?
Craig Edwards
2:15
I think Heyman just reported it was likely to be more than a month. Given that info, anywhere from 45-80 games seems most likely.
Roy
2:16
Can the indians really still be good if they trade lindor? If so what would they need in return
Craig Edwards
2:18
Good? Sure. Because Cleveland is a stars and scrubs team, they can easily fill some holes to make up for some of the loss of Lindor. If they got an average shortstop, and average outfielder, and an average starting pitcher, they could make up for his loss entirely. The thing is, that given their payroll is currently under $100 million, they could do all those things, keep Lindor and have one of the best teams in baseball.
Trent
2:21
The Astros don't want to spend this off-season because they're concerned about the luxury tax threshold, but doesn't it make more sense to worry about the 2021 threshold?  After 2020, players like Reddick, Brantley, and Springer will all be free agents, so the Astros will be able to duck under the threshold much more easily in advance of the 2021 season than they can in advance of the coming season.  Shouldn't they just pay the relatively minor penalty for being a first-time offender in 2020 and then reset their tax rate in 2021?
Craig Edwards
2:24
They probably don't want to spend also because they just added Zack Greinke. With Reddick, Brantley, and Springer all leaving after 2020, they also might want to sign a big free agent and go over no matter and have their pick penalty for signing a FA be slightly less. As constructed, the Astros are best team on paper so they don't really have to do anything.
Estevão
2:25
Larry Walker is 1 of 2 players ever with an ISO of .250 or more, a .400+ OBP and over 200 Stolen Bases, the other one is Barry Bonds. Thoughts on that
Craig Edwards
2:25
That's more of a fun bit of trivia than anything necessarily related to value of Hall worthiness. Larry Walker was a great player worthy of being in the Hall of Fame, and I hope he makes it.
Ed
2:26
Which hitter is going to be a classic Craig feature: terrible through May and balls out immediately after you write about them
Craig Edwards
2:27
Impossible to predict, but it is important that I like them already because then I'm going to be more optimistic about what things are looking like going forward. It's not about what player is going to break out. It's about the player that I am predisposed to liking who is off to a bad start.
Glen
2:27
Are the Depth Charts going to be updated with projections for Japanese signings like Akiyama and Tsutsugo?
Craig Edwards
2:28
They will be yes, but it takes time to get them into the system.
Logan
2:28
Paxton, LeMahieu, Tanaka, Betts, and Bradley are all free agents after this year.  Will that open up the AL East enough for the Blue Jays to contend in 2021?
Craig Edwards
2:29
If they sign Paxton, LeMahieu, Tanaka, Betts, and Bradley, absolutely. The Jays contending is more about what they do than the situations of the Yankees and Red Sox. While those teams getting worse helps, the Blue Jays have to get into position to make a leap forward.
Estevão
2:30
The odds of a Yankees x Dodgers fall classic over the next 25 years or so is at about >99% given the state of both teams right?
Craig Edwards
2:31
Much lower than that. If you give both teams about a 20% chance of making the World Series, then they have a 4% chance of meeting. Repeat that for 25 years and you only end up with a 36% of a WS meeting.
JSDee
2:32
sure feeeeeels like more teams are trying to be competitive in 2020 than the past three or four seasons.  is that just a gut feeling or is it actually true?
Craig Edwards
2:34
It feels like it with the White Sox, Rangers, Padres, and Reds stepping forward with the Angels doing more. Looks like the Giants are the only team close to .500 last year taking a step back though the Pirates and Mariners could be even worse.
Logan
2:35
Re: Yankees Dodgers: What is the *least* likely Fall Classic match-up over the next 25 years?
Craig Edwards
2:36
Pirates and Royals, maybe? 25 years is a really long time.
Nick
2:37
Why would you give the Dodgers and Yankees only a 4% chance of making the World Series when each team's actual chance is much better than that for 2020 and the foreseeable future?
Craig Edwards
2:39
Because it is the chances in an individual season of getting that particular matchup. Consider how good the Yankees have been over the last 25 years. Yes, they've played the Braves in the World Series, but missed Cardinals, Giants and Dodgers. The odds of any two teams playing each other in the World Series just isn't that great.
Thoms
2:39
If the best the angels can get for marsh is Boyd, and marsh should be worth much more than that, then would it make sense to consider keeping marsh as an above average right fielder, and instead trading adell for a top of the rotation arm? Marsh seems sure to be a solid above average player, and while Adell might be a star, he seems to have more bust potential. If their 75% outcome is within 1 war, then it would seem to make sense to flip the narrative.
Craig Edwards
2:44
I don't think the 75% outcome is that close. Marsh isn't worth much more than Boyd. He's a decent prospect, but he's not close to Adell. I'm not sure there is an available arm out there that would make sense for Adell. He has the potential to be a star and there's little reason to trade a player like that.
BESR
2:44
If they have a 4% chance of meeting in the WS, the chances of them NOT meeting in 25 years would be 36%. (96%)^25 - 36%
Craig Edwards
2:44
Duh. My mistake.
New Bork
2:45
In the past 25 years 22 of 30 teams have appeared in at least one WS
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:45
I think a World Series matchup between any two AL clubs or any two NL clubs is least likely. I am also not fun at parties.
Jack
2:46
Do you think there is any legitimacy to the rumors around Arenado? What's he even worth at this point with the option to walk in two years?
Craig Edwards
2:48
He's got pretty close to a market value contract. Rendon just signed for 7/245 with no opt-out, but Arenado is a year younger. That's fairly equivalent. It also decreases the market because many teams aren't going to want to take on that deal with the opt-out taking away the best possible outcomes of the deal. Look at what the Diamondbacks got for one year of Paul Goldschmidt. That's sort of in the the ballpark, a volume of medium quality.
andy
2:49
Odds Arenado is actually traded? Obviously just a gut feeling kind of thing.
Craig Edwards
2:49
15%
Alex
2:51
Do you see a plausible scenario in which Gleyber Torres would accept an Acuna-like extension offer at this point?
Craig Edwards
2:55
I do not. He's going to be arbitration-eligible next year as a super-2 so now would be a good time to approach him about an extension, but if it happens it will probably buy out jut a year or two of free agency for a guaranteed in the $50-$80 million range.
2:56
German is getting 81 games it looks like with 63 this year, per Hannah Keyser at Yahoo.
Roger
2:56
Spring training often proves to be extremely boring.  The past two years have tempered that boredom because the Hot Stove extended well past the start of the spring, but this year, the faster market has deprived us of that benefit.  How do you plan to remain interested in baseball even as we wait for the drudgery or spring training to end?
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