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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--1/21/2021
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Craig Edwards
2:42
The pick isn't the same as the player. Any one player might only have X FV, but the team gets to pick from among a ton of players and pick the player they think is the highest because presumably they see they can get more out of that player than an industry ranking would. The fact that the team is then likely to put more resources into that player because they are the first rounder then increases their chances of success. In that way, the pick is more valuable an industry grade for a particular player.
Xander
2:42
Dodgers going to sign JT and Semien? I also believe Bauer is still extremely unlikely
Craig Edwards
2:42
I don't see why the Dodgers would sign Realmuto. I could see Semien.
bauer
2:42
Does the AL West being (or feeling) wide open increase the chances the Angels go after Bauer?
Craig Edwards
2:43
Maybe, and that the Angels have that need and haven't been able to break through probably helps as well.
Xander
2:44
What would be your best advanced metric to use to evaluate hitters?
Craig Edwards
2:45
I use wRC+ the most often. It's results-based, adjusts for park, and because 100 is average, it's very easy to see where players stand.
Moonbeam McSwine
2:45
Does playing in dreary Buffalo (not football) seem like a negative to attracting FA's to the Blue Jays?.. any way that can be measured?. polls taken?.. tea leaves?..
Craig Edwards
2:45
Doesn't sound like Buffalo is an option this year. It will be Florida, then Toronto, I think.
Guest
2:46
With Springer signing in Toronto, what do you see as a possible route the Mets take this offseason with their remaining cash?
Craig Edwards
2:48
It's a good question. Seems like a righty outfielder who can play center would be nice, but that's not going to be expensive. Maybe, they end up taking on Kris Bryant's salary or something, but I doubt there's anything big that would still be on their radar.
Eddie Waitkus
2:49
Would Bauer make the Angels the favorite in the West?
Craig Edwards
2:49
For sure.
2020*
2:51
Obviously we take 2020 with a grain of salt since it was only 60 games.  But how does only facing 1/3 of the league affect how you review 2020?  Is there a place to easily see 2020 "league" stat totals by West/Central/East?
Craig Edwards
2:52
If you go to the splits leaderboards, you can pick which teams you want to see and go to the MLB splits for them. Here's the East. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=195,196...
Adrian
2:52
Assuming you dont want Vlad Jr there ( and you shouldnt) who would you bring in to play 3B if you were the Jays? Personally i like La Stella to balance the RH lineup
Craig Edwards
2:53
I would want somebody who can play multiple positions so La Stella makes sense. So does Semien.
person guy
2:54
what more what need to happen before you would take the jays over the yankees
Craig Edwards
2:55
Another big signing for the Jays and bad injury news for the Yankees on one of their stars, which hopefully won't happen. I don's think the Jays can do enough to be favored over the Yankees, but they should be pretty darn good.
Jeff
2:56
Any speculation towards what is happening at 2B? Offense has fallen dramatically? 91 wRC+ in 2020, 94 since 2015, SS put up 100 in 2020 and has the same average
Craig Edwards
2:57
I think 2016 was an anomaly and 2020 the sample is too small. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0...
I also think that teams aren't really prioritizing 2B so you could just be seeing more lesser players cycle through the position than established regulars, but that's just speculation.
Danielectomy
2:58
Assuming the Jays still have plenty of payroll capacity, and they they'd eventually be willing to get back to or exceed their previous high mark....does it make more sense to spend huge now while prices are somewhat depressed?  Or, should they be holding back for next year's crop of top free agents?
Craig Edwards
3:01
They should still have flexibility next year, too, but if they see someone else that can help them this year at a reasonable price, there's no reason not to jump in. What happens if the Yankees decide to spend more in 2022 and the Red Sox do the same and Wander Franco is a superstar. They might not have many better opportunities than the one they have right now.
Ozuna Stan
3:01
Am I crazy, or is marcell ozuna being heavily underrated in Free Agency. The guy is only 30 and is xStats are out of this world. His defensive metrics don't seem so bad so I could see him sticking in LF for a while and his hitting potential is sooo high.
Craig Edwards
3:02
Hard to know if he's being underrated. The best outfielder just went off the board two days ago and there's still some better players out there. Ozuna had a couple weird years in St. Louis and there are going to be questions about his defense. He was probably underrated last year. This year, he probably ends closer to what he deserves.
doug
3:03
Will Carlson have a break out year? MLB had article detailing his very impressive exit veto and barrel rate
Craig Edwards
3:03
I think Dylan Carlson will be a lot better next year. I don't know about a breakout, but he should be a solidly above-average player.
JR
3:04
So do you think Realmuto is signing for less than $25MMAAV or Wong is signing for only $2MM AAV?
Craig Edwards
3:04
How about 6/125 and 3/18?
DK
3:06
JD Davis really can’t play third base so trade for Suarez or sign Turner or sign Cesar Hernandez and move McNeil to third?
Craig Edwards
3:06
That would make some sense. McNeil provides some flexibility.
Matt
3:07
If the Dodgers sign Trevor Bauer, does their rotation move back ahead of the Padres?
Craig Edwards
Jeff
3:07
I would like to suggest an article: An Ode to Ben Zobrist: The Prototypical 21st Century MLer
Craig Edwards
3:08
Teams keep searching for the next Ben Zobrist, but generally don't ever pull it off. You really need to have two quality shortstops to get that real shortstop value that Zobrist had early in his career. Maybe the Rays will do it again soon.
Jeff
3:09
Do you like the Braves' SP? Seems extremely risky and I'm huge on both Fried and Anderson
Craig Edwards
3:09
They've got a solid first five, but what happens if Soroka doesn't come back strong or Smyly can't go five innings. There are some depth issues there. Morton was a really good signing.
Phil Rizzuto
3:11
Holy cow!  Are we throwing out 2020 for Gleyber Torres or is there reason for concern?  Do you see him becoming a plus defender anytime soon?
Craig Edwards
3:13
Not sure why you would want to throw it out. I know he didn't play a full regular season, but including postseason, he put up a 128 wRC+ in 190 PA, which is better than his 2019 campaign. Torres was probably never going to be a good shortstop. The question is if he can be good enough to stay there, and I think another season there could help him.
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