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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--10/10/2019
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Craig Edwards
2:03
Let's get things going. The Nationals, no matter how you define it, have now won a series.
Jaffe rhymes with Taffy
2:04
Has MLB pulled a switcheroo on balls this post season?  Looking for your take.  Thanks.
Sanford
2:04
I hate to be a conspiracy theorist...which is why Rob Arthur's BP article this morning gives me some validation. This ain't the 2019 regular season ball, chief. Data FTW.
Craig Edwards
2:04
So about the ball. Jay wrote about this morning. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/has-mlb-pulled-a-switcheroo-with-the-baseb...
and like Oasis, he says definitely, maybe.
2:06
Rob Arthur also wrote about it https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/54306/moonshot-the-roc... and like the Black Crowes, he says hitting homers is twice as hard.
2:08
2:09
short answer, i don't know, but it is certainly possible and I'm not even sure that if they did change it, that they did it on purpose, or at least changed it on purpose for the playoffs.
We know that MLB has control of production of the ball and they generally claim to have no idea what is going on. If they don't know what is going on, they are choosing not to.
Lou
2:10
Pretty much all of LA wants Roberts gone, from the traditionalists to the nerds, he has to be gone right?  This was a Grady Little moment.
Craig Edwards
2:12
Be careful what you wish for. The Nats started firing managers and couldn't make the playoffs consistently. I don't think Roberts is a bad manager. It's possible he could be improved upon. The problem is that it is very hard to tell if a manager will be an improvement if they haven't managed and that limits the pool somewhat. If the players are fine with Roberts, and I have no idea, then maybe the organization just needs to make a more concerted effort to get relievers at the deadline. They didn't need to make THAT move, but bringing in more pitchers might have helped.
pyco
2:12
What would you do to “fix” the Braves?  They can’t seem to get through the playoffs.  At some point the past negatives have to start accumulating.   Please assure me there is more to do than just waiting for the prospects to mature, because that may never happen.  Thank you.
Craig Edwards
2:13
Well, they lost to a much better team than them last year and lost in a close series that was pretty close to 50/50 heading in. That's not terrible.
2:14
As for getting better, their young pitchers have developed some, but not at the rate they really need to take another step forward. That could end up helping their bullpen, but they should probably spend some of the mountain of cash they are sitting on to bring in better starting pitching.
Yankees
2:14
Hicks says he's healthy. Would you bring him in over Voit, whose only major skill is OBP these days? He would be in the lineup over Urshela most likely (DJ to 3B, Gardner to LF, Stanton to DH and actually plays all game, Edwin to 1B), or leave it how it was?
Craig Edwards
2:15
If he is healthy, then yes. I think defense and baserunning would probably worth it at some point in the ALCS, particularly if Voit isn't likely to play much.
Worse
2:15
If the Rays were to win, and the Yankees beat them and the NL, would it be seen as a "lesser" title since they didn't beat another "superteam"? Or should we maybe shut up about "super teams" if they mostly can't dominate the playoffs?
Craig Edwards
2:18
I think the NBAization of MLB might be a bit overblown. Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros were roughly 70% to win the title before the playoffs just like in the NBA, but if the NBA eliminated a round to get to the same as MLB, the odds would remain the same while if MLB added a full extra round like they have in the NBA, the top teams odds would go down a bunch. As to the championship not meaning as much or something, that's just silly.
Mason Jarre
2:20
I suck at math (but this is NOT a 'Fangraphs hates the Yankees' question): How do the Yanks have greater odds to win the LCS than the Astros but lower odds to win the WS?

Can you help me wrap my head around that?
Craig Edwards
2:21
the astros might lose today. If they don't they will be big favorites against the yankees and in the WS, but because they only make the LCS a smaller number of times, the chances of them winning it is a little lower.
Bread Gardner
2:22
I have to say, the umpiring I've seen thus far, especially ball and strike calls, has been VASTLY better than the regular season.
Craig Edwards
2:22
In theory, it should be that way. Not sure if that is actually true, but it doesn't seem to have been noticeable, which is what you want from an umpire.
Chat Mapman
2:23
Will Smith cratered big time from September until now. Does the past 5 weeks give Ruiz a nice opening for playing time off the bat in 2020?
Craig Edwards
2:24
I think that's probably true regardless, unless they trade him. If you have two MLB-caliber catchers, you can get them each 80 games, which for a starting catcher is like 2/3 playing time.
Whoa
2:24
If Hicks were to return (and CC might be activated as a reliever), the only injured major Yankee would be Betances (I guess there's Andujar and Bird, but...). Guess we might see how that full team plays.
Craig Edwards
2:25
The big ones at different points were Judge, Stanton, and Severino. Judge has been back and crushing things for a while and didn't miss that much time in the end. If Stanton gets going and Severino is anything close to what he can be, it really evens the teams. That said, I picked the Twins in the first round, so salt, etc.
the meme lives
2:26
Bryce Harper has never won a playoff series
Craig Edwards
2:26
Mike Trout's never even won a playoff game.
Derek
2:27
Will fans ever understand that consistent playoff success (or failure) is extremely hard to achieve because of the inherent randomness of the game and the format? Like, sure, Roberts wasn't great yesterday, but if Will Smith eats a couple extra bowls of Wheaties throughout the season then the Dodgers win and no one is really talking about it. The playoffs are awesome but also a really terrible arena in which to evaluate things about baseball!
Craig Edwards
2:28
The playoffs are great at determining a champion, but they are a reminder that no matter how good they are, they aren't THAT much better than the Washington Nationals, which is what allows outcomes like this to happen.
2:29
I know Dodgers' fans are freaking out now about not winning one, but the Cardinals from 2000-2005 went on a fairly similar run (missed postseason once) including a couple 100 win seasons, several NLCS' and a WS loss, then they only made the playoffs three times in the next six years, but they won twice. It happens.
One Sad Tigers Fan
2:30
If the ball has changed as dramatically as Arthur suggests, which remaining playoff team benefits most?
Craig Edwards
2:31
I would think the Astros, if they advance, because they are the best team and a deadened ball reduces randomness. Cardinals might be helped, too, because their offense is already not great and they are in a park where it is already difficult to hit homers so the road atmosphere might be slightly less different.
Bread Gardner
2:32
Can we talk for a second about how stupid MLB has been with actually broadcasting playoff games?  Many people have had to turn to alternative sources to watch games.
Craig Edwards
2:33
This isn't really new. TBS and FOX pay exorbitant sums of money to broadcast on cable so they get to do what they want. Fewer people have cable so they are reaching a smaller audience, but MLB Network is in as many homes as ESPN when MLB signed their first tv deal with them. Fortunately the World Series is still on FOX, so we are almost done with that for the season.
Rays Fan in Boston
2:34
If the ball has been switched, we've been hitting the hell out of mistakes.
Craig Edwards
2:35
When Tommy Pham gets the ball in the air, it doesn't matter if there are feathers on the end of the ball dragging the ball down.
Bread Gardner
2:35
Craig Edwards
2:36
I suppose you could write your local member of congress given they passed a bill that limited minor league wages. I'm not sure what more fans could do other than spotlighting the issue as much as possible.
Astros
2:37
I know the Astros are still the most talented team, but I don't think it would be absurd if they didn't make it to the WS. On this site, everyone thought they would "destroy every team in their path" (that was Meg on Monday) and that, already, hasn't happened, even if they win. In other words, October is October.
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