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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--10/10/2019
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Craig Edwards
2:39
They could also win 9 straight games and then everything will be as everyone thought. I think it is possible that everyone sometimes underestimates what a 30% chance. Something that happens 30% of the time actually happens quite a bit. Eddie Rosario got on base quite a bit. Jack Flaherty struck out a ton of batters. Both of those things happened 30% of the time this season. A 70-30 favorite is a masssive favorite to win, but it still means there is a good chance they lose.
This is Lude-i-cris
2:39
Mike Trout might never win a playoff game!
Craig Edwards
2:39
I really hope that isn't true.
Old Narratives
2:40
Busted: Nationals. Not busted: Kershaw, Dodgers, Twins, Braves. We busted Price last year, so maybe we only get one a year.
Craig Edwards
2:41
You are forgetting the new anti-Bryce Harper narrative that has replaced the Nationals narrative. Verlander isn't invincible might count.
Twins Fan
2:41
If the ball has been switched, that may have killed the bomba squad.
Craig Edwards
2:41
I wouldn't go that far.
Halp
2:42
is it cemented that the careers of MadBum >>> Kershaw now
Craig Edwards
2:43
Kershaw is the best pitcher since the generation of Pedro, Maddux and Randy Johnson. I'm not sure MadBum will ever get close. Verlander and Scherzer maybe, particularly with Verlander's late-career resurgence.
2:47
He's not a playoff choke artist any more than Justin Verlander. He was repeatedly left in games too late or pitched on short rest, or this year out of the pen. Nobody has been asked to do what Kershaw has been asked to do as often. He's got 10 appearances on under normal rest. Bumgarner has two, and both were relief appearances. Kershaw gets piled on because he's now been around for a while on some teams that haven't quite gotten done as he's been the best player on most of those teams. That doesn't make it fair to single him out.
Optimistic Rays Fan
2:49
Any idea who the most likely Rays player is to have success off Cole tonight? Waiting for Meadows and Lowe to come alive...
Craig Edwards
2:50
No idea. Cole doesn't really have platoon splits. He does a lot worse, like most pitchers, when the count goes 1-0, so we could see a repeat of the Verlander strategy where we see batters take a pitch, but Cole is really good. It's not a great matchup for anybody.
Every GM in Baseball
2:51
Isn't it great that the best player in our lifetimes is essentially quarantined on a mediocre team!  It's nice not having to worry about a contender getting Trout.
Craig Edwards
2:52
He's not exactly quarantined. He's signed two massive bargain contracts. Also, the Angels are probably going to make some noise this offseason and given the status of the rest of the AL after the Yankees and Astros, there's some room for upward movement.
MikeM
2:52
Why do MLB broadcasters hire announcers who seem to hate the modern game?  Smoltz constantly brings up in my day BS and Costas goes on and on about nostalgia and game length.  Why not employ someone who actually likes the game?  Nobody is tuning in for Costas or Smoltz or whatever other curmudgeon is on air.  Games are a lot more fun with announcers that like what they are watching.
Craig Edwards
2:53
Why do I listen to objectively terrible songs on the radio just because I know the song or the words to the same. There is comfort in familiarity and Costas provides that comfort while Smoltz is saying a lot of things people are already thinking. Is that good for the sport long-term? Probably not.
2:55
I think about the ESPN2 Statcast broadcast which included one "typical" PBP in Benetti, one former player in Perez, and one "nerd" in Petriello and it was a great broadcast because they had fun with each other and genuinely seemed to enjoy the game they were watching and talking about it. It doesn't have to be a Statcast broadcast. Any broadcast can have people who enjoy talking about the game and each other and audiences are going to respond to it.
3:01
Kershaw has 9 playoff starts with at least 6 innings and 0 or 1 run. Only seven pitchers in history have more. Glavine and Smoltz are in the Hall of Fame. Clemens and Schillin should be based on their record. Pettitte, as well as the other guys have a ton more opportunities. Jon Lester is ahead of him. So is Verlander. Kershaw has come up big more than almost all pitchers. He's dominated in more than a third of his postseason starts.
Parsons
3:02
Why was Flaherty left in so long? I like the bold strategy of pulling him before the bottom of the first and letting him start game 1 of the NLCS, but what do think would have been optimal?
Craig Edwards
3:04
I think two innings would have been optimal. Dave Sheinen (sp?) in the Washington Post pointed out that maybe with Flaherty's warmup  to start, that pitching him in another two days was never really an option. Getting ready for a start isn't like warming up in the pen to come in for an inning, so it isn't exactly the same as what Corbin looks set to do, for example. I don't think there's an objective way to make this look like a good decision. The only other thing is that Flaherty has very limited postseason exposure and getting him in one more game, even with a lopsided score, is good for him.
3:06
I would have taken him and taken the risk of losing a 13-run lead, though I'm generally in favor of win the game today, worry about tomorrow, then, this was such a weird and almost absurd situation, it would seem to have needed a pull. Dan Szymborski ran the numbers and found that Flaherty moving up to Game 1 wouldn't have changed the series odds by more than a percent, so who knows.
3:08
Sorry if the chat transcript looks a little weird. I deleted some of the questions with an offensive name, but left the answers in.
Rays Fan in Boston
3:08
What is one thing you've really enjoyed about the playoffs so far and one thing you haven't?
Craig Edwards
3:10
The uncertainty with all the comebacks. So many games have felt like they should be over, but haven't been has been great. I don't like narratives about players/teams/managers as chokers. Most of it is just random.
cheese
3:12
What's next for the dodgers?  sounds like Hill wants to come back.  Go after a big arm?  A big bat?  Or just tinker as theyve done in recent years?
Craig Edwards
3:13
They need pitching and Ryu is a pending free agent. They could just bring them back, but they should have a ton of money if they want to go big...or bring in MadBum to make everyone go crazy. My guess is they do something more with the bullpen, too.
Max
3:14
Was it the right decision to walk Soto in 10th vs. bringing in Kolarek to strike him out given recent success (albeit small sample)? What gives Dodgers best chance to escape inning unscathed?
Craig Edwards
3:17
The WE didn't change that much with the walk to Soto, in part because it was already very high. I don't think it is wise to play for a double play ball, but in that situation your options are limited. There were probably worse decisions made in the game.
3:18
That's going to do it for today. Big game tonight and then LCS' start this weekend. Thanks for all the questions and keep a look out for more in game chats as the playoffs continue.
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