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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--11/12/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:07
Trying to put the finishing touches on a Marcus Semien piece. Will be with you in a few moments. Keep that queue rolling.
2:15
Thanks for your patience. Let's get rolling.
Craig
2:15
How excited should I be as a Mets fan?
Craig Edwards
2:18
I think there's reason to be excited. It is very hard to build a consistent winner, but being in New York lends itself to certain advantages that make it easier. You can't just spend a ton of money and magically have a winner, but it certainly helps. It looks like the Mets are pretty close to starting over on the front office side so that could take some time to get going, but it feels positive so far. That said, Cohen is going to have to do some of it himself as the financial situation left behind isn't as good as it could be given the tv contract and the potential lack of fans this season.
Sodo Mojo
2:18
If the Mariner's try to accelerate their window into 2021 how much additional WAR would the need to accumulate in the off seasons?
Craig Edwards
2:20
Our Depth Charts have them at around 22 wins. Another 12 would get them to 34, which is basically around .500 and into somewhat contending level. The good news if you could call it that is that the team has a lot of holes that can be fairly easily filled. I think the problem with the 2021 timeline is that the team is going to need internal improvements to take a big step and Kelenic and Rodriguez are probably more 2022 or 2023 in terms of being game-changers, similar to Robert and Jimenez for the White Sox this season.
Curtis
2:21
Which Free Agent is most intriguing to you - either in where they may end up or in how their signing may impact the market going forward? (or other factors of course)
Craig Edwards
2:22
I just finished up a piece on him, but it is Marcus Semien. There's a bunch of unusual factors surrounding his entry into free agency with his one great year, defense, and the shortened season. He looks to be underrated and with the shortstop market being full, he's a guy I would target, and even if I wanted to be open to a shortstop after next season, Semien could move positions and still be a solid player.
Rico
2:22
How do the Stroman and Gausman decisions affect Bauer's market? Seems like now it's him, the Morton a step back and then a lot of meh.
Craig Edwards
2:24
I think it affects guys like Tanaka more. Bauer was always going to be alone at the top of the pitching class, but the available depth options just got a lot thinner. There's a lot of intriguing names down the list for starting pitching, but they have question marks.
Curtis
2:25
The last time you browsed or worked with career WAR, what one player's career WAR total was surprisingly higher that you expected?  how about lower?
Craig Edwards
2:25
That's an interesting question. I just searched for active players. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y...
2:27
It was kind of interesting to see Matt Carpenter's name up there on the first page with Chris Davis not until the third. I know Davis hasn't been good the last few years, but he was great for a little bit there. I guess that was just for fewer years than I would have thought.
2:28
and how does Hosmer only have 11 career WAR? It's not like he hasn't been around for a while. So much uneven play from him.
Dave
2:28
Craig, you told us last week that the Mets shouldn't trade away talent for Francisco Lindor. Jay Jaffe even told us all about the other options available as FA this year and next, should the team feel the need to upgrade the SS position. Nevertheless, Mets fans and writers everywhere have persisted. They are willing to give away the farm (or at least important barns and granaries) for 1 year of Lindor. Lindor is good, but the marginal improvement he provides, IMO, does not justify the acquisition cost. How do I fix the world?
Craig Edwards
2:29
Get them to win the bidding on Springer or Realmuto?
2:31
I think once the Mets lock up one of the other big fish, Lindor is going to make less sense given the cost. I still think Realmuto is a better fit than Springer. If the Mets have money, they should use it. Lindor is a great player, but they can get him or several other really good players next offseason. Raise the floor this year. Try for the ceiling next one.
Alex Cora
2:31
Who's most likely to bounce back this year for us out of JD, Rafy, and Benny? Least likely?
Craig Edwards
2:32
I would expect more out of Devers next year. Martinez is probably better than he showed last year, but he's 33 years old and was more good than great even in 2019. I have no idea what to expect from Benintendi.
Gardy
2:33
Yankees turning me down for basically $7.5mil is a little scary for players, no?
Craig Edwards
2:34
I think Gardner and the Yankees is a fairly unique situation, but it is part of this offseason's landscape for sure.
Bauer
2:34
What's the case for Bauer as the Cy? I get that he's in the top four, but he was only a hair better than Darvish or DeGrom and his opponents were much worse
Craig Edwards
2:38
He's got that great ERA and his Statcast numbers were fantastic as well. I don't think he was a bad choice, though I would have given the award to Darvish, who even though he played in the same division, like you mentioned, his opponents were better than Darvish. Bauer gave up 9 homers and eight were solo. Sequencing luck or skill?
Benny Biceps
2:39
You mentioned the Red Sox not being able to get any value back for me via trade last week... What do I have to do this year to avoid getting non-tendered after the season? What has happened since the All Star Break 2018?
Craig Edwards
2:41
To avoid getting non-tendered next season, he just has to be average. He's set to make $6.5 M this year so he isn't likely to break the bank next year or be much of a liability if he just shows he can be productive. His 2019 season might be enough.
John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt
2:41
Does the La Russa hire make it more difficult for Chicago to bring in the free agents they want/need? I have to imagine a lot of players feel the same way Stroman does (and perhaps are as bold to be vocal about it).
Craig Edwards
2:42
Almost every time, money talks. Maybe it costs more to get a certain player, but probably it just costs more than the next-best bid.
Dave C
2:42
Do you think the Mets will regret tying up almost $19 mill on Stroman or was it worth it since it's only a 1 year commitment?
Craig Edwards
2:43
I doubt it. If he has a good season, then he helps the team whether they contend or not. If he doesn't, then he has no impact on payroll beyond this season. It a win-win.
Matt (Oceanside)
2:45
Hey Craig! Wonder if you heard the radio interview of Andrew Friedman on MLB radio recently. Friedman mentioned a couple of relievers and a RH bat as the targets for this off-season. All in all, it seemed kind of underwhelming. With acknowledgement to the COVID revenue situation, do you think the Dodgers would be willing to go over the lux tax threshold for this year with all the money they have coming off books after 2021, especially with just winning the world series? Thanks!
Craig Edwards
2:48
The big move was to sign Mookie Betts. They are already a playoff team. They might be willing to go over the tax threshold given there's not that much penalty for them to do so and we have no idea what's going to happen after 2021 in that regard. If there's a big move out there, I don't think they would hesitate. They've got a ton of money coming off the books in the next few seasons.
Matt (Oceanside)
2:48
How much cash inflow does a World Series win net a team like the Dodgers relative to the COVID revenue situation?
Craig Edwards
2:50
It really cuts into it given that most of the benefit is the home games in the playoffs plus ticket increases the next season. The Dodgers benefit more financially from being a consistent winner, generally, than actually winning the World Series. They sell a ton of tickets and have a great tv deal so there's a lot of motivation to keep winning even if they didn't quite get the World Series bonanza they might have otherwise.
Curtis
2:51
Similar to Realmuto being a "must" for the Mets, isn't Bauer a "must" for the Angels?  Not that they don't have any other holes...
Craig Edwards
2:52
Bauer makes a ton of sense for the Angels. A shortstop or second baseman as well but there are a bunch of those. He isn't necessarily a must, but the team could really use a boost on the starting pitching side.
Braves
2:52
If you were his coach would you tell Acuna to hit more liners?
Craig Edwards
2:55
I'm not sure I would tell him much of anything except to go get em. In theory, every player should be trying to hit liners. You miss a little below, you hit a homer, hit it right, you get a hit, miss a little above, and you still hit the ball hard. Hitting the ball hard in the air is the most important thing and he does a ton of that. Line drives don't really carry over from year to year so I wouldn't pay too close attention to liners by themselves.
B
2:55
When will we know what the rules will be for the 2021 season?
Craig Edwards
2:56
It could be a while. We don't really have a sense of the economic impact of the 2021 season yet and that might play a role in what the owners want and what they are willing to give up to get it.
Ozzie
2:58
Ozzie Albeis is listed as 70 grade speed and has great running metrics but Statcast has him as well below average. Is his running value all from instincts?
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