JotCast | Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--11/19/2020

Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--11/19/2020

Craig Edwards

2:03

Going to let the queue get a few more questions. In the meantime, here's today's post on Gary Sánchez. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/gary-sanchez-has-no-trade-value/

Hiya!

2:08

Does G Sanchez make sense for the Marlins? What type of return would it take?

Craig Edwards

2:10

I think he does make sense for the Marlins. I'm not sure they should give up much more than what they gave up to get Villar last year which was Easton Lucas, a non-prospect. Somebody who wouldn't make the prospect list but is in the org somewhere.

Chris

2:10

Drew smyly got what???

Craig Edwards

2:12

He got $11.5 million guaranteed for next season. I actually thought he'd get a two-year deal for $17 million. Getting a higher salary for just one year is in line with what I would have thought. He was very good in short bursts last year and we'll have to see what a full season and expectations of starts going more than four innings leads to.

Here's my FA rankings and predicted deals. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/

Morbo

2:12

Man a Craig and a Dan chat in the same day! 2020 might actually be starting to turn around

Craig Edwards

2:12

I like your enthusiasm and misplaced faith.

bighen

2:13

I've been surprised by the happy reaction of so many Mets fans and writers to the Cano news. The trade was bad, we all get it but Cano was a legit contributor this past season and his best chance to contribute going forward was this coming season and they are still on the hook for ~$40-45 M the following 2 seasons. If his deal was wiped clean, I'd get it but losing good players is not a huge positive and Cano was a good player this past season.

Craig Edwards

2:19

It's a weird situation, for sure, especially given Cano's rebound, albeit in the shortened 2020 season. In a very hard sense, they owed $60 million for a player that was probably going to get 3.5 wins. Now, they owe $40 million for like 1.8 wins. It is actually a little worse per win, but the $40 million is more easily absorbed in the future and and even removing 1.8 wins and $20 million allows for more flexibility elsewhere. I'm not sure rejoicing is the right thing to do, but they have the opportunity to make themselves better than they would be otherwise given that they have an owner who isn't likely to just pocket the savings.

Eric C

2:19

Hypothetically, if the Mets do spend the big bucks as expected and sign George Springer, would it be likely that a trade involving either Nimmo or Conforto occur as a result?

Craig Edwards

2:21

It's pretty difficult to project given we don't yet know about the DH at this point. If you have Springer, then all of a sudden you have Davis, Nimmo, Conforto, and Smith in just two spots unless you put Davis at third and McNeil at second. There isn't room for everybody, but there isn't one particular player from that group of four that has to go, but you can't keep everybody unless there's a DH. It's part of the reason I think Realmuto is the better target.

Bronx Bomber

2:22

Hi Craig - really enjoyed your piece on Sanchez! Given how much talk there's been on Benintendi in these chats and your comments on his trade value recently - are you writing one on him next? Would be interested to see your thoughts on two former stars from the same rivalry. Thanks!

Craig Edwards

2:23

Thanks. Benintendi is slightly less interesting because he already has a contract for next season. He doesn't really have any trade value, either, because of his struggles, but the non-tender deadline isn't going to affect him in the same way. Maybe I'll get to Benintendi at some point in the offseason, but I'm hopeful we start to get a lot more moves to analyze in the coming weeks.

Lou

2:23

Where does Ha Seong Kim wind up? I think the Dodgers.

Craig Edwards

2:26

I think he makes more sense on a team trying to work its way out of a rebuild or just arriving, like the Mariners, Blue Jays, Giants, or maybe a team like the Brewers who need things to go right to contend. The Dodgers could just throw some money at him, give him a starting spot knowing they don't need him to contend but potentially get a ton out of him. The Nationals fall in between there as well.

Jon

2:27

Feels weird making a prediction this bold this early in the offseason, but I'll *guarantee* that the Mets sign *at least* one of the big four FA (Bauer, JT, DJ, Springer) with Canó out of the picture. Thoughts?

Craig Edwards

2:27

I think that was pretty likely before Cano. I'd be surprised at this point if they don't sign either Realmuto or Springer.

shach1

2:28

Am I crazy for thinking that Gurriel JR will hit 295 with 35 home runs, 100 rbi and 100 runs scored next year? I believe in him that much. What does everyone here think about that?

Craig Edwards

2:29

That's very optimistic. ZiPS for the Blue Jays just came out and he was at .272 for average with 25 homers.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-toronto-blue-jays/

SD Friar

2:29

Who do you envision being the top five teams this offseason in terms of spending?

Craig Edwards

2:30

Mets, Giants, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals.

Blue

2:31

What are the long term budget and salary implications resulting from covid? Will there still be nine year 300 million deals or will owners be conditioned to younger cheaper rosters?

Craig Edwards

2:32

Long term, salaries are still going to go up. Some of that could changed with a new CBA after 2021, but if COVID-19 is a one-year blip in revenues, things will get back closer to normal in short order once the sides agree to a new CBA.

Mike Hawk

2:33

Do you see Bobby Dalbec getting 500+ ABs this year and if so, would that put him in the 40+ HR category?

Craig Edwards

2:33

It's possible, but he's going to have cut down on strikeouts to stay in the lineup. Even then, 30 homers is a more reasonable goal and I'd still take the under.

SD Friar

2:34

What acquisition or moves would give SD the best chance of WS contention?

Craig Edwards

2:36

The Padres are already really good. They need some bench help and more certainty in the rotation. There are plenty of guys who fit that mold available. An ace would obviously be a help, but they are probably better served waiting until the trade deadline to see who is available then.

Isolated Thinker

2:37

Theo Epstein's letter to friends allegedly said: …I do plan on having a third chapter leading a baseball organization someday, though I do not expect it to be next year.” Is this possibly a bargaining chip/leverage statement? "Do not expect" is not the same as "it will not be" next year.

Craig Edwards

2:38

I think it is an indication he would have to be blown away to get right back in the mix. Whether some organization sees that and decides to hand everything over is another story.

Curtis

2:38

Which FA makes the most sense for the Mariners, given the state of their "rebuild"?

Craig Edwards

2:39

I mentioned Kim earlier. After that, I think they can wait for a bunch of one-year contracts for players who might have good trade value.

Friar Fanatic

2:40

With the injury to Clevinger, as well as financial uncertainty, should SD take a step back or hold steady in 2021 in order to go all in for 2022?

Craig Edwards

2:41

I think they just build around the edges rather than make a bold move. They already have a contending team.

Mike Hawk

2:41

Would you rather be a fan of a team that is in the playoffs 10 years straight like the Braves of yore, or a fan of a team that wins 3 WS in 5 years and then sucks for the next 10 years, like the Giants?

Craig Edwards

2:45

As someone who watches baseball everyday, the opportunity to win a world series every year makes the years a lot more fun. I think there's a tradeoff in there somewhere. Keep in mind the Giants were competitive in every year but one fro 2009-2016, won three series in that time period and will have probably at most, a five-year lull. The more apt comparison is the Royals, probably.

I think I will do a poll.

2:46

What is the largest number of guaranteed losing seasons you would take if you were guaranteed a WS title in the next year?

10+ (13.5% | 5 votes)

6-9 (24.3% | 9 votes)

4-5 (29.7% | 11 votes)

3 (32.4% | 12 votes)

2 (0% | 0 votes)

1 (0% | 0 votes)

Total Votes: 37

Mike Hawk

2:47